构建亚太风能供应链，实现_1.5°C_全球气候目标_134页_7mb

报告摘要

Mission Critical: Building the Asia Pacific Wind Energy Supply Chain for a 1.5°C World

Introduction and Goals

The Asia Pacific region is pivotal to the global transition to renewable energy, accounting for over 51% of global wind power installations by the end of 2023. With the COP28 pledge to triple renewable energy by 2030, wind energy must accelerate to meet climate targets, requiring massive supply chain investments. The report identifies seven key actions tailored to APAC’s industrial strengths and challenges to achieve this goal.

Analysis and Findings

1. Asia Pacific Market Overview

Installed Capacity: APAC leads in wind deployment, with China and India driving 99.4% of cumulative capacity. By 2030, onshore wind could reach 1,084 GW, while offshore wind cumulatively reaches 160 GW.
Annual Growth: By 2030, onshore installations increase from 79 GW to 99 GW, while offshore reaches 21 GW per year.

2. Supply Chain Bottlenecks

Concentration Risk: Over-reliance on China and India contributes to bottlenecks in critical components like gearboxes and blades beyond 2030.
Offshore Specialization:
- Offshore gearboxes, generators, and transformers face major bottlenecks.
- Lack of local manufacturing in key countries (Singapore, Japan) for essential turbine parts complicates scaling.
Port and Vessel Limitations: Cabotage regulations restrict vessel imports, leading to shortages from 2030.

3. Country-Specific Strengths

Australia:
- Strengths: Critical minerals (nickel, copper), skilled maritime workforce.
- Opportunities: Capitalize on raw material processing, diversify shipping industries.
Indonesia:
- Strengths: Robust EPC sector, nickel reserves.
- Opportunities: Expand into gearboxes and cables through partnerships.
Japan:
- Strengths: Advanced cable manufacturing, shipbuilding.
- Opportunities: Scale up for floating wind and global exports.
Vietnam:
- Strengths: Growing steel production, transition industries.
- Opportunities: Develop subsea cables and sustainably mine rare earths.

4. Key Bottlenecks

Component	Bottleneck Type	Impact in APAC (Excluding China)
Offshore Gearboxes	Major	Supply gaps persist through 2030
Blades	Critical	High local dependency limits export pipeline
WTIVs	Moderate	Constraints in vessel capacity from 2028

Recommendations

1. Accelerate Regional Collaboration

Actions: Remove trade barriers, align supply chain strategies across markets. Leverage multilateral agreements like RCEP to facilitate resource flows.