2023-05-06-IEA-实现1.5_°C_目标的可靠途径_17页_425kb

Credible Pathways to 1.5°C: Four Pillars for Action in the 2020s

Summary

Temperature Goals & Emissions Overview

• Global energy-related CO₂ emissions reached an all-time high of 36.8 billion tonnes in 2022.
• Countries' current and announced climate commitments set warming to ~1.7°C by 2100 — still exceed the 1.5°C goal.
• Immediate and accelerated action is needed to avoid irreversible climate tipping points and stay within the CO₂ budget.

Four Pillars for Action

Pillar 1: Energy Decarbonization

• Key Actions: Scale renewable energy deployment, electrification, energy efficiency, and phase out fossil fuels.
• Targets:
  • renewable capacity additions: Triple from 2022 → 1,200 GW/year (avg 90% of new energy capacity).
  • EVs: 60% market share by 2030.
  • Carbon Capture & Storage (CCUS): 1.2 Gt CO₂ captured by 2030.
• Requires policies supporting clean electricity, zero-emission transport, and industrial fuel switching.

Pillar 2: Zero Net Deforestation by 2030

• Land-Use Mitigation: Curbing deforestation and improving forest management to reduce AFOLU GHG emissions.
• Target: Aligns with the Glasgow Leaders’ Declaration, but more ambition is required to reach NZE Scenario (emissions reduced by an additional ~2 Gt CO₂-eq by 2030).

Pillar 3: Mitigate Non-CO₂ Emissions

• Key Emissions: Methane (40% of non-CO₂ impact), HFCs, N₂O, black carbon.
• Targets:
  • Methane: 30–45% reduction by 2030. (Kigali Amendment, oil & gas flaring policies).
  • HFCs: Phasedown under Kigali Amendment.
• Highlights: Non-CO₂ actions are critical to avoid temperature overshoot.

Pillar 4: Scale Carbon Management

• Carbon Removal: CCUS, BECCS, and Direct Air Capture (DAC) required to compensate for hard-to-abate emissions and achieve net-negative scenarios.
• Target: 1.2 Gt CO₂ captured cumulatively by 2030, with deployment multiples needed beyond current pipeline projects.

Call to Action

• Urgent Policy: Strengthen commitments, coordinate timelines, and incentivize clean energy investments in emerging economies.
• Innovation: Scale up carbon management and deployment of clean energy technologies to support global decarbonization.