卡车和拖车市场趋势（英文版）_56页_3mb

Summary of Trends in the Truck & Trailer Market

Core Content

This market study outlines the key trends expected to shape the commercial vehicle (CV) industry over the next decade, with a specific focus on the truck and trailer market in Europe. The four main trends, referred to as LEAD (New Logistics, Electrification/Alternative Drives, Autonomous Trucks, and Digitalization), are identified as central to the industry's evolution. Additionally, the report highlights the impact of these trends on components and the role of regulatory frameworks in driving innovation and market development.

Main Trends

1. New Logistics

• Customer Structure Changes: The logistics landscape is evolving, leading to a shift towards large fleet customers. OEMs are expected to see changes in their current customer base.
• Emergence of New Players: New business models and digital platform ecosystems are developing, including booking and optimization platforms (BOP), carrier and terminal operators (CTO), and supply chain specialists (SCS).
• Specialization: There is a trend towards stronger specialization among logistics players, distinguishing between asset-heavy and asset-light models.

2. Electrification/Alternative Drives

• Regulatory Drivers: Electrification is primarily driven by regulations, particularly in Europe, where zero/low emission zones and stricter emission standards are being implemented.
• Use Cases: Electric vehicles (EVs) are expected to gain traction in urban and short-haul applications, with BEV and HEV models showing potential in specific use cases.
• Cost Considerations: While the total cost of ownership (TCO) benefits of EVs are significant, they may not immediately drive widespread adoption due to high upfront costs.

3. Autonomous Trucks

• Challenges Addressed: Autonomous trucks aim to tackle issues like driver shortages, safety, and fuel costs.
• Early Adoption: Autonomous driving is expected to be limited to platooning and partial automation in the early stages, with full automation (Level 4/5) remaining a long-term goal.
• Regulatory Support: Favorable regulatory frameworks are anticipated to support the development of autonomous driving, especially in the form of platooning.

4. Digitalization

• New Use Cases: Digital technologies will create new use cases, particularly in advanced telematics and fleet management.
• Service Scenarios: Digitalization is expected to drive the creation of new service models, such as digital logistics agents and telematics-based optimization tools.
• Impact on Innovation: Shorter innovation cycles and increased integration of digital solutions will reshape the value chain.

Key Market Developments in Europe

Truck & Bus Production

• Growth Expectations: Europe's production of medium/heavy duty trucks and buses (>8 t) is expected to grow at an average rate of 1.3% p.a. until 2020, primarily driven by Eastern European countries.
• Market Share Distribution:
  • Owner-driver: ~15-25%
  • Small/mid-sized fleet operator: ~35-40%
  • Municipalities: ~5-10%
  • Large fleet operator: ~25-35%

Trailer Production

• Growth Trends: European trailer production has grown at 5% p.a. until 2017, but is expected to remain relatively flat in the coming years.
• Component Value Shift: While the current value of standard trailers is dominated by chassis and structural elements, there is a clear shift towards connectivity systems.

Impact on Components

Tractor Trucks

• Powertrain and Cabin: These will continue to be the largest contributors to value.
• Connectivity & ADAS: Demand for ADAS (Driver Assistance Systems) is expected to rise significantly, particularly for LDWS (Lane Departure Warning System), ACC (Adaptive Cruise Control), and AEBS (Automatic Emergency Braking System).
• Component Growth Rates (CAGR 2016-2022):
  • Braking systems: 3.5–4%
  • Powertrain: 7–8%
  • Steering systems: 9–10%
  • ADAS: 10–12%

Trailers

• Connectivity Systems: Expected to become a significant component of trailer value in the future.
• Market Focus: New logistics models and urban delivery solutions are driving the need for efficient and connected trailer systems.

Key Success Factors

• Customer Perspective:
  • Reputation and Customer Relationship are most important for both OEMs and OESs.
  • High Product Quality and Delivery Reliability are also essential.
• Differentiating Factors:
  • Price Competitiveness, Technical Capabilities, and Power to Innovate are considered crucial for market players.
  • These factors are expected to grow in importance as the market evolves.

Regulatory Influence

• Regulatory Pressure: Increasing regulatory pressure, particularly in Europe, is a major driver for technology upgrades in the CV industry.
• Key Regulations:
  • Emission Standards: Tightening of standards, including CO2 and Euro VI compliance.
  • Zero Emission Zones: Planned in key EU cities like London, Paris, and Hamburg.
  • Safety Standards: Increasing focus on mandatory ADAS installation.
  • Platooning: Expected to be supported by regulatory frameworks.
  • Cabotage Restrictions, Tolls, and Driving Times: These are expected to further influence the market.

Conclusion

The truck and trailer market in Europe is expected to continue its positive development, influenced by LEAD trends and region-specific drivers. New Logistics and Digitalization will reshape the customer structure and service models, while Electrification and Autonomous Driving will drive technological innovation and component value shifts. Regulatory frameworks play a critical role in shaping the direction of these trends, and supplier capabilities in technology and connectivity will become increasingly important.