卡车和拖车市场趋势英文版_56页_3mb

Summary of Trends in the Truck & Trailer Market

Core Content

This document outlines the key trends expected to shape the commercial vehicle (CV) industry over the next decade, with a particular focus on the truck and trailer market in Europe. The report identifies four main megatrends – New Logistics, Electrification/Alternative Drives, Autonomous Trucks, and Digitalization – collectively referred to as "LEAD." These trends, along with region-specific drivers, are anticipated to drive continued growth in the truck and trailer market.

Main Trends

New Logistics

• The logistics landscape is evolving with the growth of large fleets and the emergence of new players and business models.
• A shift towards asset-heavy and asset-light operators is expected.
• Examples include:
  • Same-day delivery (shuttl.com)
  • Volvo Drop-off/Pick-up System
  • Routific (route optimization)
  • CARGONEXX (city freight consolidation)
  • sendder (spontaneous urban instant delivery)
  • Smartlane (delivery management software)
  • Gogovan (shared logistics concept)
  • FreightExchange (hitchhiking concept for city logistics)
  • RYTLE (holistic city logistics concept with MOVR, BOX, and HUB)

Electrification/Alternative Drives

• Electrification is driven by regulatory pressures (e.g., emission standards, zero emission zones) and local emission optimization.
• In Europe, low/zero emission buses and inner-city delivery vehicles are key focus areas.
• Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) is a major factor in the adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), but the pull effect from fleets is limited due to high costs.
• New vehicle architectures are required, and suppliers may benefit from increased value add, such as electric axles.

Autonomous Trucks

• Autonomous vehicles (Level 4/5) are not yet roadworthy before 2023.
• Truck platooning is expected to be a key application in the early stages, with significant cost savings anticipated in the long term.
• Safety regulations will become a major driver for the development of autonomous technology.
• The role of the driver is expected to diminish as automation advances.

Digitalization

• The evolution of digital technologies will create new use cases, particularly in truck & trailer telematics.
• Al-based optimization methods will help reduce congestion, low utilization, and costs.
• Digital fleet management solutions are expected to emerge, changing the service scenario for the truck and trailer industry.

Key Market Developments in Europe

Truck & Bus Production

• Europe's medium/heavy duty truck and bus production (over 8t) is expected to grow at 1.3% annually until 2020, with Eastern European countries as the main growth drivers.
• Trailer production in Europe has grown at 5% annually until 2017, but the market is expected to remain flat in the coming years.

Component Market Growth

• The market growth of related component systems is expected to outperform the truck and bus production growth rate:
  • Braking systems: 3.5–4% p.a.
  • Powertrain: 7–8% p.a.
  • Steering systems: 9–10% p.a.
  • ADAS: 10–12% p.a.
• Connectivity solutions and driver assistance systems are expected to gain more importance in the future, particularly in tractor trucks.

Impact on Trailer Components

• While chassis and structural elements currently dominate trailer value, a clear shift towards connectivity systems is expected.

Key Success Factors

• Reputation and customer relationship are most important from the customer perspective.
• High product quality and delivery reliability are also essential but are considered obligatory conditions.
• Technical capabilities and power to innovate are seen as differentiating factors and will become increasingly important.

Regulatory Influence

• Regulatory pressure is increasing globally, with a focus on emission standards, safety, platooning, and autonomous driving.
• In Europe, the European Commission is tightening regulations on driving times, rest periods, and cabotage rights.
• Zero emission zones are being planned in key EU markets, which will drive electrification.
• Special regulations for electric vehicles are expected to have a beneficial impact on xEV trucks.

Outlook for 2030

• The "LEAD" megatrends are expected to shape the truck and trailer market until 2030.
• New logistics will lead to a shift towards large fleet customers and specialization of logistics players.
• Electrification will drive new vehicle architectures, higher component technology content, and increased need for electronics competence.
• Autonomous trucks will see the emergence of truck platooning, reduced importance of the driver, and increased annual mileage.
• Digitalization will lead to the emergence of fleet management solutions, new service providers, and shorter innovation cycles.

Methodology

• Roland Berger conducted approximately 80 interviews with market experts to evaluate the truck & bus and trailer markets.
• The interviews were conducted with market experts in Western Europe and Eastern Europe, with a focus on truck & bus in Western Europe and trailer in Eastern Europe.

Conclusion

The truck and trailer market is expected to evolve significantly over the next decade, driven by new logistics, electrification, autonomous driving, and digitalization. These trends will reshape the customer structure, product development, and value chain dynamics, with regulation playing a key role in accelerating these changes.