2014年-普华永道全球_Asset_Management_2020_40页_977kb

Asset Management Industry Summary for 2020

Core Content

The asset management (AM) industry is undergoing significant transformation in the years leading up to 2020, driven by economic growth, regulatory changes, and evolving investor behavior. This report outlines the key trends, challenges, and opportunities that will shape the future of the industry.

Main Trends and Opportunities

1. Global Asset Growth

• Global AuM is projected to exceed $100 trillion by 2020, growing at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of nearly 6%.
• Mutual funds and mandates are expected to grow in tandem, with mutual funds growing at 5.4% and mandates at 5.7% annually.
• Alternatives are becoming more mainstream, while passive investments are expected to grow significantly, reaching $10.5 trillion by 2020.

2. Investor Base Shift

• Mass affluent and high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) are the primary drivers of growth, especially in the SAAAME (South America, Asia, Africa, Middle East, and Europe) regions.
• SAAAME economies are expected to grow faster than developed markets, with mass affluent wealth doubling in these regions between 2012 and 2020.
• Asia will overtake Europe as the region with the highest proportion of middle-class consumers by 2015.

3. Client Segments Driving Growth

• Pension funds will be a major contributor, growing from $21.3 trillion in 2004 to an estimated $56.5 trillion by 2020.
• Sovereign Wealth Funds (SWFs) are also expanding, with their AuM expected to rise from $5 trillion to nearly $9 trillion by 2020.
• Insurance companies and HNWIs will also play a growing role in the asset management landscape.

4. Regional Breakdown

• North America will still hold the largest AuM pool in 2020, at over $30 trillion.
• Europe will be close behind with nearly $14 trillion.
• Asia Pacific and Latin America will see the strongest growth in pension assets, with rates above 9% annually.

5. Technological and Regulatory Shifts

• Technology and data management will become central to the industry, with increased investment required to meet regulatory demands and distribution needs.
• Regulatory pressures are intensifying, with MiFID II, EMIR, AIFMD, and Solvency II setting new standards for transparency and compliance.
• Portfolio-level data disclosure will become the norm, with regulators potentially enabling real-time access to investment portfolios.

6. New Entrants and Disruption

• New entrants from technology and social media sectors could disrupt traditional asset management models.
• Social media and tech firms may leverage their influence and customer base to enter the AM space, either through partnerships or acquisitions.
• Alipay's acquisition of Tianhong Asset Management Co. is an example of how technology firms are integrating into financial services.

7. Globalization and Tax Compliance

• The internationalization of the Chinese renminbi by 2020 will open new markets for asset managers.
• Tax information exchange agreements (TIEAs) will create a global network of data sharing, increasing transparency and regulatory scrutiny.
• Country-by-country reporting will become standard, with asset managers required to report profits, tax paid, and employee numbers across jurisdictions.

Key Gamechangers

1. Asset management moves centrestage – The industry will become more integrated into global financial systems.
2. Distribution is redrawn – Regional and global platforms will dominate, with digital and tech-driven distribution channels becoming more prevalent.
3. Fee models are transformed – There will be increased pressure on fees due to greater transparency and competition from new entrants.
4. Alternatives become more mainstream, passives are core and ETFs proliferate – Alternatives will expand, while passive strategies and ETFs will become central to the industry.
5. New breed of global managers – Asset managers will need to adapt to serve a more diverse set of clients, including SWFs, pension funds, and HNWIs.
6. Asset management enters the 21st century – The industry is evolving to meet the needs of a new generation of investors and to align with global regulatory standards.

Challenges

• Rising costs and compliance demands will put pressure on margins and profitability.
• Regulatory scrutiny will increase, especially in areas such as transparency, risk management, and anti-money laundering (AML).
• Tax compliance will become more complex, requiring asset managers to navigate a global web of tax rules and reporting requirements.

Conclusion

The asset management industry in 2020 will be characterized by greater transparency, increased globalization, and technological integration. While there are significant opportunities for growth, asset managers must prepare for rising costs, regulatory changes, and increased competition from new entrants. The future will demand greater efficiency, adaptability, and innovation to remain competitive and relevant.