20180806-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_520kb

Dim Sum Express Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the equity research for the Dim Sum Express report dated August 6, 2018, covering key market indices, Hong Kong ADRs, and sector-specific insights, particularly in the coal sector and laser industry.

Key Index Performance

The report highlights the performance of various global and regional indices over different time frames:

Key Insight: The HSCEI, SHSZ300, and SZCOMP indices underperformed significantly over the year-to-date period, while CCMP and UKX showed positive trends. The HSI and SPX had mixed performance across different time frames.

Hong Kong ADRs Performance

Key Insight: Most ADRs showed mixed performance, with TENCENT and ICBC showing positive daily changes, while PING AN and AIA experienced declines.

Coal Sector Analysis

Key Points:

• The coal sector underperformed the SHCOMP and CSI300 indices in July by 5.6% and 4.8% respectively.
• Thermal coal prices are expected to stabilize in August due to inventory depletion and summer peak demand.
• Coking coal is likely to remain stable as production is suppressed due to environmental checks and limited import growth.
• Coke prices are expected to bottom out as environmental regulations tighten and supply constraints persist.

Earnings Outlook:

• 1H18 corporate earnings in the coal sector rose 18.4% YoY to Rmb156.4bn.
• 2Q18 earnings increased 10% QoQ.
• Interim reports are expected in August, with the State Council indicating a shift towards more active fiscal policy and tight monetary policy.

Recommended Stocks:

• Shaanxi Coal Industry (601225 CH)
• Yanzhou Coal Mining (600188 CH)
• Lu'an Environmental Energy Development (601699 CH)
• Shanxi Coking (600740 CH)
• CCS Supply Chain Management (600180 CH)
• Kailuan Energy Chemical (600997 CH)

Risks: Lower-than-expected economic growth, greater-than-expected coal price drops, slower-than-expected import substitution, and weaker-than-expected demand.

Laser Industry Analysis

Market Overview:

• The global laser market was valued at US$12.43bn in 2017, up 18% YoY.
• China's laser equipment market reached Rmb49.5bn, up 28.6% YoY.

Technology & Applications:

• Lasers consist of three key components: pump source, gain medium, and resonator cavity.
• Fiber lasers account for 47% of the industrial laser device market, showing strong growth due to their technical advantages.
• Lasers are used in material processing, lithography, communication, scientific research, healthcare, and entertainment.

Market Landscape:

• Europe and the US dominate the laser market, particularly in high-power and fiber lasers.
• China is rapidly catching up, with a shift from import reliance to import substitution, especially in low/mid-end lasers.

Key Domestic Players:

• Han's Laser (002008 CH)
• Raycus (300747 NEEQ)
• Yawei Machine Tool (002559 CH)
• Advanced Fiber Resources Zhuhai (300620 CH)
• Huagong Tech (000988 CH)
• Aohua Laser

Risks: Slower development in downstream sectors, intensified market competition, and weaker-than-expected import substitution.

Rating Definitions

• Buy: Stock expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%

• Accumulate: Stock expected to outperform benchmark by 5% to 15%

• Hold: Stock expected to have relative performance between -5% and 5%

• Underperform: Stock expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%

• Sector Ratings:

  • Positive: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%
  • Neutral: Expected to have relative performance between -10% and 10%
  • Cautious: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%

Disclaimer & Legal Information

• This report is prepared by GF Securities (Hong Kong) for informational purposes only.
• It does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
• The report may include conflicts of interest disclosures, and no liability is accepted for any losses arising from the use of the materials.
• The views and opinions expressed are those of the analysts and may differ from those of the firm or its affiliates.