20171221-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_6页_522kb

报告摘要

Market	1D Chg (%)	1M Chg (%)	YTD Chg (%)	17E EPS (%)	18E EPS (%)	17E P/E	18E P/E
HSI	-0.1	-2.0	32.9	24.7	9.9	13.1	11.9
HSCEI	-0.3	-3.1	22.5	12.3	10.1	8.6	7.8
MXCN	-0.3	-4.7	49.4	28.3	15.5	15.1	13.1
SHSZ300	-0.1	-4.4	21.8	17.4	14.9	15.5	13.5
SHCOMP	-0.3	-3.6	5.9	24.3	13.4	14.5	12.8
INDU	-0.1	4.8	25.1	15.8	9.6	19.7	18.0
SPX	-0.1	3.1	19.7	22.7	10.1	20.0	18.2
CCMP	0.0	1.4	29.3	55.3	13.3	24.6	21.8
UKX	-0.3	1.5	5.4	139.7	6.6	15.3	14.3
NKY	0.1	2.1	19.8	39.6	12.6	19.3	17.1

The HSI and HSCEI indices showed negative short-term and monthly changes, but positive year-to-date performance.
MXCN and SHSZ300 had the highest YTD gains, while SHCOMP and SZCOMP experienced mixed performance.
The SPX and INDU indices showed modest gains, and the CCMP index had strong YTD performance.
The UKX and NKY indices showed positive trends, with UKX having a significant EPS growth.

Coal prices likely to remain high in 2018 due to supply-side reforms and SOE reform.
Sector valuation is still low, with current P/B and P/E (TTM) at 1.4x and 12x, respectively, which are 50% below historical averages.
Earnings recovery is expected to continue, with 10M17 sector pre-tax profit reaching Rmb250.6bn, up 437% YoY.
Key sub-sectors: Thermal coal, coking coal, coke, and coalbed methane are highlighted.
- Thermal coal: Expected to maintain prices above Rmb600/tonne, with leading companies trading at 8-10x 2018E P/E.
- Coking coal: Prices likely to remain high, with leading companies trading at 8-12x 2018E P/E.
- Coke: Prices are more elastic and likely to stay high due to tight supply-demand balance.
- Coalbed methane: Significant growth potential over the next 5-10 years, especially in Shanxi province.
Undervalued companies to watch: Shaanxi Coal (601225 CH), Yanzhou Coal (600188 CH), Lu'an Environmental Energy (601699 CH), Xishan Coal and Electricity Power (000983 CH), and Blue Flame Holding (000968 CH).
Risks: Lower-than-expected economic growth, power generation and crude steel production declines, slower supply-side reform, and unexpected coal price drops.

The conference emphasizes quality growth and solving social conflicts from unbalanced development.
Three key missions: Risk management, poverty relief, and pollution control.
Opportunities in specific sectors: Power, oil and gas, rail, environmental protection, education, and healthcare.
Regional development: Xiongan New Region and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Bay Area are highlighted for growth potential.
Financial policy: Proactive fiscal and stable monetary policies, with a focus on financial risk control.
Property sector: Emphasis on establishing a leasing market to complement the ownership market.
"Beautiful China" initiative: Focus on education, healthcare, elderly services, and environmental protection.

Top manufacturers: Largan (3008 TP), Genius Electronic Optical (3406 TP), and Sunny Optical (2382 HK).
Performance in 2016:
- Largan: Rmb9.71bn
- Sunny: Rmb1.63bn
- Genius: Rmb1.54bn
Sunny Optical surpassed Genius to become the second-largest supplier.
November 2017 shipment growth:
- Sunny: 42.9% YoY
- Largan: 7.8% YoY
- Genius: 29.4% YoY
Sunny's shipment growth was slower than its Jan-Nov average due to domestic manufacturers destocking, but it still gained market share.
Risks: Smartphone sales missing expectations, dual-camera penetration disappointments, market competition, and RMB depreciation.

Wind power segment: Main contributor to earnings, with high installed capacity in Hebei province and strong utilization hours.
Natural gas segment: Stable gas consumption and measures to ensure supply during peak winter demand.
Earnings forecast:
- 2017: Rmb0.239
- 2018: Rmb0.276
- 2019: Rmb0.316
Valuation: Trading at 6.8x, 5.9x, and 5.2x P/E for 2017-2019, considered relatively low.
Buy rating with a target price of HK$2.6.
Key risks: Economic growth shortfall, natural gas supply shortage, wind power growth missing expectations, tariff cuts, interest rate risk, and exchange rate fluctuations.

Buy: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%.
Accumulate: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%.
Hold: Expected relative performance between -5% and 5%.
Underperform: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%.

The analysts responsible for the report certify that the views expressed are their personal opinions.
No part of their remuneration is linked to specific recommendations.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold shares in the mentioned securities.
No investment banking relationships with the companies in the past 12 months.
Analysts and their associates have no financial interests in the mentioned securities.

The report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
The information may be subject to change and should not be relied upon as a substitute for professional advice.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) may have different views or strategies from the report.

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