20180103-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_452kb
报告摘要
Dim Sum Express Summary
Core Content
This document provides a summary of key index performance and company-specific analyses for several Hong Kong-listed firms, including CRRC (1766 HK), WuXi Biologics (2269 HK), and Xtep Intl (1368 HK). The report also includes rating definitions and disclosures.
Key Index Performance
| Market | 1D Chg (%) | 1M Chg (%) | YTD Chg (%) | 2017 EPS (%) | 2018 EPS (%) | 2017 P/E | 2018 P/E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HSI | 2.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 37.2 | 9.8 | 12.4 | 11.3 |
| HSCEI | 3.1 | 5.4 | 3.1 | 25.3 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 7.3 |
| MXCN | 3.3 | 6.4 | 3.3 | 46.5 | 15.1 | 13.9 | 12.1 |
| SHSZ300 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 35.1 | 15.2 | 13.7 | 11.9 |
| SHCOMP | 1.2 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 41.0 | 14.8 | 13.1 | 11.4 |
| SZCOMP | 1.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 81.9 | 27.1 | 20.3 | 16.0 |
| INDU | 0.4 | 2.4 | 0.4 | 25.1 | 9.5 | 18.3 | 16.7 |
| SPX | 0.8 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 33.7 | 10.5 | 18.5 | 16.8 |
| CCMP | 1.5 | 2.3 | 1.5 | 71.3 | 16.1 | 22.5 | 19.4 |
| UKX | -0.5 | 4.8 | -0.5 | 152.9 | 6.7 | 14.7 | 13.8 |
| NKY | -0.1 | -0.2 | - | 42.1 | 12.0 | 19.1 | 17.0 |
- The HSI and HSCEI indices show positive changes over the past 1 month and year-to-date (YTD), while UKX and NKY show mixed performance.
- The MXCN and CCMP indices show strong EPS growth in 2017, with continued positive expectations for 2018.
- The SHCOMP and SZCOMP indices have seen a slight decrease in their 1-month performance, but strong EPS growth in 2017.
Company Analyses
CRRC (1766 HK, Buy)
- Key Orders: CRRC won Rmb68bn in key orders in Q4 2017, with significant contributions from EMU and urban transit vehicle orders.
- Rail FAI: China met its annual rail FAI target in 2017, with 3,038km of new rail lines operational, exceeding expectations.
- 2018 Budget: The 2018 rail FAI budget is Rmb73.2bn, a 8.5% YoY decrease, but management expects a slight increase.
- Outlook: Despite the budget reduction, the rail equipment sector is viewed positively due to the need to reach 150,000km of operational rail lines by 2020.
- Target Price: The target price is maintained at HK$9.9, representing a 17x 2018E P/E.
WuXi Biologics (2269 HK, Buy)
- Ibalizumab Approval: The FDA extended the PDUFA date for ibalizumab from January 3, 2018, to April 3, 2018.
- Impact: This delay is a short-term setback but does not affect the long-term outlook for the drug's approval.
- Commercialization: WuXi Biologics expects the first commercial batch to be delivered in Q2 2018.
- Target Price: The target price is raised to HK$50.10, reflecting the potential for a positive catalyst from eventual approval and commercial manufacturing.
Xtep Intl (1368 HK, Buy)
- Share Repurchase: The company and senior management have initiated share repurchase plans, signaling confidence in the 2018 financial turnaround.
- Chairman's Purchase: The Chairman purchased 6.77m shares at HK$2.85-3.04, indicating strong belief in the stock's potential.
- Short Selling: The stock has accumulated 19.2m shares of short-selling, which could be unwound as a positive catalyst.
- Target Price: The target price is raised from HK$3.22 to HK$3.96, based on a 13x FY18E P/E, reflecting increased confidence in the turnaround.
- Risks: High A/R provisions in H1 2017 and potential revenue decline in FY18.
Rating Definitions
| Rating | Description |
|---|---|
| Buy | Expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 15% |
| Accumulate | Expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15% |
| Hold | Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5% |
| Underperform | Expected to underperform the benchmark by more than 5% |
Sector Ratings
| Sector Rating | Description |
|---|---|
| Positive | Expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 10% |
| Neutral | Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10% |
| Cautious | Expected to underperform the benchmark by more than 10% |
Key Risks
- CRRC: High reliance on CRC procurement, lower-than-expected rail equipment FAI, delays in rapid transit project construction, delays in receivable collection, and pressure on product ASP.
- WuXi Biologics: Uncertainty around regulatory approval and potential near-term weakness.
- Xtep Intl: High A/R provisions in H1 2017 and potential revenue decrease in FY18.
Disclaimer and Disclosure
- This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
- GF Securities (Hong Kong) has no investment banking relationship with the mentioned companies in the past 12 months.
- Analysts have no direct financial interest in the companies discussed.
- The report may contain conflicting views from the proprietary trading division.
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