20180625-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_497kb

报告摘要

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	EPS 18E (%)	EPS 19E (%)	P/E 18E	P/E 19E
HSI	0.2	-4.1	-1.9	41.4	10.6	11.6	10.4
HSCEI	-0.2	-5.9	-3.2	23.1	10.3	7.7	7.0
MXCN	0.1	-2.4	1.5	55.5	15.8	12.9	11.1
SHSZ300	0.4	-5.4	-10.5	34.4	15.3	12.2	10.5
SHCOMP	0.5	-8.0	-12.6	38.4	13.5	11.5	10.1
SZCOMP	1.2	-11.7	-15.9	73.2	22.3	17.7	14.5
INDU	0.5	-0.7	-0.6	40.6	8.7	16.1	14.8
SPX	0.2	1.2	3.0	46.2	10.0	17.3	15.7
CCMP	-0.3	3.5	11.4	81.9	15.4	23.2	20.1
UKX	1.7	-0.6	-0.1	169.4	6.5	13.9	13.0
NKY	-0.2	0.1	-1.3	61.9	14.4	16.3	14.3

Policy Update: The personal income tax threshold was proposed to be raised from RMB 3,500 to RMB 5,000 per month, with new special deductions for education, serious disease treatment, housing loan interest, and rent.
Impact on Consumer Sector: The tax cut is expected to drive domestic consumption upgrade and improve disposable income, which will benefit the consumer sector.
Key Sectors to Watch:
- Defensive Consumer Stocks: Expected to see increased demand due to improved consumer spending power.
- Gaming Sector: May see improved fundamentals with more travelers and higher average spending.
- Domestic Automakers: Enhanced spending power for first-time buyers in lower-tier cities, favoring domestic brands.
- Mass-Market Sportswear: Benefiting from rising disposable income among low/mid-income earners.
- Education Sector: Reduced tax burden on middle-class families may boost demand for private and international schools.

Retail Spending: Grew at around 10% in 1H18, with end-consumption contributing increasingly to GDP.
Sector Conditions: Short-term cost pressure eased, and residents' leverage boosted consumer spending.
F&B Performance: Major F&B stocks outperformed the HSI and HSCEI.
Key Outlooks:
- Dairy Sector: Share prices are expected to rise due to capital inflow towards defensive stocks. Mengniu Dairy (2319 HK) and H&H International (1112 HK) are highlighted.
- Hotpot Value Chain: Expected to maintain robust earnings growth. Yihai International (1579 HK) is recommended.
- Healthcare Products: Sector to maintain decent growth. Swisse's product registration approvals could be a catalyst for H&H International (1112 HK).
- Beer Sector: Profit turnaround is anticipated. China Resources Beer (291 HK) is expected to benefit from premium product development and cost savings.

Tax Reform Delays: Slower-than-expected progress could affect the anticipated benefits.
Market Volatility: Possible fluctuations in stock prices.
Economic Slowdown: May negatively impact the fundamentals of Hong Kong-listed companies.
Exchange Rate Volatility: Could affect the performance of ADRs.
Macro Fluctuations: Affect demand in the F&B sector.
Valuation Concerns: Some stocks may be overvalued.

Company Ratings:
- Buy: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 15%.
- Accumulate: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%.
- Hold: Expected relative performance between -5% and 5%.
- Underperform: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 5%.
Sector Ratings:
- Positive: Expected to outperform benchmark by more than 10%.
- Neutral: Expected relative performance between -10% and 10%.
- Cautious: Expected to underperform benchmark by more than 10%.

The views expressed in the report accurately reflect the analysts' personal opinions.
No part of the analysts' remuneration is directly or indirectly linked to the specific recommendations or views in the report.

GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold any shares of the securities mentioned.
No investment banking relationships with the mentioned companies in the past 12 months.
Analysts and their associates have no financial interests or rights in the securities mentioned.

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
The information may be subject to change without notice.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for losses arising from the use of the report.
Investment involves risks, and past performance does not guarantee future results.