2016年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Central_African_Republic_Selected_Issues_12页_552kb

Central African Republic: Selected Issues Summary

Core Content

This paper analyzes the underlying causes of the Central African Republic's (C.A.R.) "fragility trap" and explores the factors that contribute to building resilience. It draws on the experiences of seven Sub-Saharan African (SSA) countries that have successfully exited fragility to provide insights and policy recommendations for C.A.R.

Key Political and Economic Background

• Political Instability: C.A.R. has experienced continuous political instability since independence, marked by numerous coups, civil conflicts, and ethnic and religious tensions.
• Economic Indicators: Despite its natural resources, C.A.R. remains one of the poorest countries in the world with a per capita GDP of $332 in 2015.
• Social Indicators: The country ranks among the least developed in terms of social indicators, with high poverty rates (62%), low life expectancy (51 years), and poor education and health outcomes.
• Fragility Sources: The main sources of fragility include lack of political cohesion, weak governance, underdevelopment, and persistent political and security instability.

Main Findings from Seven SSA Countries

• Fragility Exit: Seven SSA countries (Cameroon, Ethiopia, Mozambique, Niger, Nigeria, Rwanda, and Uganda) managed to build resilience and exit fragility over time.
• Timeline of Fragility: The most fragile period for these countries varied, with an average of seven years to exit fragility.
• Key Factors for Resilience:
  • Macroeconomic Stability: Higher growth and lower inflation were significant contributors to building resilience.
  • Fiscal Institutions and Buffers: Strong fiscal institutions, increased tax revenue, and reduced current expenditure helped in stabilizing the economy.
  • Development Aid: Scaling up development aid was beneficial for economic recovery and resilience building.
  • Social Spending: Increased investment in education and health improved human capital and contributed to resilience.
  • Institutional Reforms: Improving transparency, regulatory frameworks, and public spending efficiency were critical to long-term stability.

Policy Recommendations

• Foster Domestic Security and Political Stability: Immediate efforts should focus on creating long-lasting domestic security and restoring political stability to enable economic recovery.
• Prioritize Public Expenditure: Allocate public resources to health, education, and security to promote inclusive growth and political stability.
• Strengthen Fiscal Institutions: Improve governance, transparency, and accountability by building strong fiscal institutions.
• Mobilize Domestic Revenue: Review and implement action plans for tax reform, especially in petroleum and forestry, to increase revenue.
• Improve Public Financial Management: Restore normal budget procedures, limit emergency spending, and implement a single treasury account to enhance transparency and efficiency.
• Seek International Support: Increase external budget assistance and technical support to help C.A.R. improve institutions, governance, and public services.
• Encourage Private Sector Development: Promote private sector growth and attract foreign direct investment to create employment and boost economic development.
• Implement an ECF Supported Program: Such programs can act as catalysts for donor support, improve transparency in the budget process, and support critical sectors like education, health, and infrastructure.

Conclusion

The paper concludes that C.A.R. must focus on promoting peaceful and inclusive societies, building strong and accountable institutions, and improving fiscal management to exit the fragility trap. The experiences of other SSA countries demonstrate that a combination of internal reforms and international support is essential for sustainable development and resilience building.