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Uganda: IMF Country Report No. 17/207 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an analysis of Uganda's experience under the 2013 Policy Support Instrument (PSI), covering quantitative performance, structural reforms, and related economic and financial issues. It also includes discussions on growth diagnostics, a medium-term fiscal anchor, financial inclusion, and international taxation.

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Main Points of the Report

A. Uganda's Experience Under the 2013 PSI

• Overall Performance: The performance under the current PSI was assessed as satisfactory, with most quantitative criteria met and macroeconomic stability maintained.
• Structural Reforms: The pace of structural reforms slowed compared to the past, and only about half of the structural benchmarks were met.
• Key Objectives: The PSI aimed to support inclusive growth through macroeconomic stability and structural reforms, including enhancing revenue, improving public financial management (PFM), preparing for oil production, and strengthening the business environment.
• Challenges: Some weaknesses in public financial management, such as persistent use of supplementary budgets, under-execution of development budgets, and procurement problems, were noted. There was also "reform fatigue" and political limitations.

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Quantitative Conditionality

• Growth Projections: Growth was consistently overestimated, with actual growth averaging 5% versus projections of 6.3%.
• Fiscal Indicators: The fiscal deficit was lower than projected, and the tax-to-GDP ratio increased by around 2.2 percentage points between FY2012/13 and FY2015/16.
• Debt Management: Public debt increased from 26.2% of GDP in FY2012/13 to 34.5% in FY2015/16. Projections were initially biased towards higher debt, but actual performance was better than expected.
• Reserves and Exchange Rate: International reserves were built up and managed effectively. The Ugandan shilling depreciated significantly in 2014/15 due to global liquidity concerns, negative shocks, and election-related nervousness.

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Structural Reforms

• PFM Reforms: Significant progress was made in PFM, including the adoption of the new PFM Act, the enactment of a Charter of Fiscal Responsibility, and the implementation of electronic financial management systems.
• Financial Sector Regulation: The PSI aimed to exit the FATF grey list, which was achieved through legislative efforts.
• Debt and Recapitalization: The BoU was recapitalized with marketable securities, and there were efforts to reduce the reliance on temporary advances.
• Social Spending: A social spending floor was included, with the program targets exceeded. However, overall social spending remained at around 4% of GDP, below the EAC average.

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Growth Diagnostics

• External Factors: The Ugandan economy, being a small open economy, was significantly influenced by global liquidity, commodity price fluctuations, and regional security concerns.
• Productivity Trends: Productivity in agriculture was below regional peers, indicating potential for improvement.
• Investment Trends: Total investment increased, but its composition and effectiveness were subject to scrutiny.
• Structural Constraints: The report highlights the need to address structural constraints such as weak institutions, limited implementation capacity, and low financial market depth.

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Medium-Term Fiscal Anchor

• Debt as Public Investment: The report emphasizes the importance of managing debt as a public investment tool to ensure sustainability.
• Debt Projections: Debt projections were adjusted over time due to changing economic conditions and statistical rebasing.
• Policy Recommendations: The report suggests better fiscal-monetary coordination, improved forecasting, and stronger implementation capacity.

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Financial Inclusion and Development

• Financial Access: Financial access in Uganda improved, but there were still gaps in reaching the poor and small businesses.
• Financial Development Index: The index showed some progress, though the financial system remains underdeveloped.
• Private Credit Deepening: Efforts were made to enhance private credit deepening through improved tax policies and administrative measures.
• Technical Assistance: The IMF provided technical assistance to support reforms in tax policy, PFM, and financial sector development.

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International Taxation Issues

• Tax Base Leakage: The report identifies three sources of tax base leakage: tax incentives, exemptions, and poor enforcement.
• Tax Treaties: Uganda has a set of tax treaties, but their effectiveness in preventing base erosion and profit shifting (BEPS) is under review.
• Indirect Transfers of Interest: The report discusses the challenges of addressing indirect transfers of interest, a key component of BEPS.
• Corporate Income Tax (CIT): The CIT system was assessed, with some industries benefiting from lower tax rates and higher profit margins.

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Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Growth and Inflation: Outturn vs. Projections
• Figure 2: Main Fiscal Indicators: Outturns vs. Projections
• Figure 3: Current Spending and Domestic Issuances: Outturns vs. Projections
• Figure 4: Fiscal Targets: Outturns vs. Projections
• Figure 5: Social Spending and Outcome Indicators
• Figure 6: Indicators on Structural Reform Performance
• Table 1: Estimated Equations
• Table 2: Redundancy of Tax Incentives Based on Investor Surveys
• Table 3: Estimated Revenue Impact of the EBITDA Rule
• Table 4: Withholding Tax Rates
• Table 5: FDI Stocks by Source Country

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Conclusion

• The 2013 PSI supported macroeconomic stability and structural reforms, contributing positively to Uganda's growth.
• Despite achievements, challenges remain in the implementation of reforms, particularly in infrastructure development and current spending management.
• The report highlights the need for continued focus on improving public financial management, enhancing the business environment, and addressing vulnerabilities in the financial system and fiscal policy.