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CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST: Episode 81 Summary

Core Content

This episode of the China in the World podcast features Dr. Michael J. Green, a prominent U.S. scholar and former National Security Council (NSC) official, discussing the implications of the Trump administration's policies on U.S.-Asia relations, particularly focusing on the Asia-Pacific region. The conversation reflects on the legacy of the Obama administration, the challenges of the Trump era, and the broader U.S. strategy in the region.

Main Viewpoints

• U.S. Strategy in Asia-Pacific: Dr. Green’s book By More Than Providence explores over 200 years of U.S. strategy in the Asia-Pacific, highlighting the importance of consistent and well-informed policies.

• Trump’s Approach: While Trump initially appeared to challenge the traditional pillars of U.S. strategy in Asia—such as alliances and the One China Policy—his actions quickly showed a return to these core commitments, particularly with China and Japan.

• Disruption vs. Expertise: The Trump administration's anti-establishment rhetoric and reliance on "transactional" diplomacy raise concerns about the role of experts and the long-term implications for U.S. foreign policy. However, Dr. Green notes that key figures like H.R. McMaster and Rex Tillerson bring strategic depth to the administration.

• History of U.S.-China Relations: Dr. Green references historical examples, such as Reagan and Clinton, where initial disruptions in U.S.-China relations led to eventual cooperation. He suggests that Trump may follow a similar pattern, starting with tough talk and moving toward a more constructive relationship.

• Importance of Language and Expertise: Dr. Green emphasizes the value of language skills and deep knowledge of specific issues (e.g., security, trade) for understanding and engaging with Asia. He encourages students and professionals to pursue both language mastery and specialized expertise.

Key Information

• Michael Green's Background:

  • Senior Vice President for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS).
  • Chair of Modern and Contemporary Japanese Politics and Foreign Policy at Georgetown University.
  • Former NSC official under President George W. Bush.
  • Fluent in Japanese, with a black belt in Iaido.
  • Authored By More Than Providence, a comprehensive look at U.S. strategy in the Asia-Pacific.

• Trump’s Initial Actions:

  • Withdrawal from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) on day one.
  • Criticisms of China’s trade practices, North Korea, and the South China Sea.
  • Campaign rhetoric questioning the commitment of U.S. allies.

• Reaffirmation of Key Policies:

  • Trump reaffirmed the One China Policy after initial threats.
  • Confirmed U.S. security commitment to Japan, including the Senkaku/Diaoyu islands.
  • These moves suggest a return to traditional U.S. policy fundamentals, despite initial disruption.

• Long-Term Implications:

  • Dr. Green doubts that Trump will shift toward a new model of great power relations with China.
  • The administration is likely to be pro-Japan and pro-Taiwan, though this may lead to friction.
  • The U.S. will likely continue to rely on experts for effective policy-making, even amid Trump's populist approach.

Conclusion

Dr. Green’s insights provide a nuanced understanding of the Trump administration’s approach to Asia, highlighting both the potential for disruption and the enduring need for expertise. While Trump’s rhetoric may signal a shift, his actions suggest a return to traditional U.S. strategic commitments, with a focus on bilateral relations and a cautious, but not entirely dismissive, view of China's role in the region. The episode underscores the importance of language, cultural understanding, and specialized knowledge in navigating complex international relations.