卡内基国际和平基金会-Obama-s-Asia-Legacy_9页_291kb

CHINA IN THE WORLD PODCAST – Episode 69: Obama's Asia Legacy

Core Content Overview

This episode of the China in the World podcast, hosted by Paul Haenle and featuring Michael Green, discusses President Obama's final visit to Asia and his broader legacy in the region. The conversation covers key policy initiatives, the impact of the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), U.S.-China relations, the South China Sea disputes, and the challenges of dealing with North Korea.

Main Points and Key Information

Obama's Final Asia Trip

• Objective: To serve as a capstone or final showcase of the "pivot" or "rebalance to Asia."
• Destinations: The trip included the G20 in Hangzhou, China, and the U.S.-ASEAN and East Asia Summits in Laos.
• Outcome: While the policy goals were largely achieved (e.g., climate change agreement), the visit received limited media attention due to political and media distractions.
• Challenges: The White House faced setbacks such as the incident at the tarmac in China and President Duterte's public criticism of Obama.

Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP)

• Status: Unlikely to be ratified during the lame duck period due to political constraints and the lack of time for legislative processing.
• Political Opposition: Both leading presidential candidates, Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump, opposed the TPP.
• Legacy Impact: The administration's framing of the TPP as a means to prevent China from setting regional rules was seen as a political gamble that backfired. The nickname "pivot" and the fanfare surrounding it may have overshadowed the actual policy achievements.

U.S.-China Great Power Relations

• Continuity Over Change: The "pivot" was not a radical departure from previous U.S. strategies in Asia but rather a continuation of efforts to counterbalance China's rise.
• Uncertainty: The administration's inconsistent articulation of its policy led to confusion among China and other regional powers about U.S. intentions and red lines.
• China's Response: Despite the rebalance, China was surprised by the U.S. approach, partly due to its focus on core interests.

South China Sea and Scarborough Shoal

• Tensions: The U.S. and Philippines had a strained relationship due to Duterte's controversial remarks and his stance on human rights.
• China's Strategy: China may avoid large military moves like land reclamation on Scarborough Shoal, opting instead for increased operational presence in the South China Sea.
• Geopolitical Implications: Any military move by China (e.g., ADIZ) would likely provoke stronger U.S. and regional responses, potentially worsening relations.

North Korea and Regional Security

• North Korea's Nuclear Ambitions: North Korea is rapidly advancing its nuclear and missile capabilities, testing frequently and challenging regional stability.
• Diplomatic Challenges: The traditional approach of alternating between dialogue and sanctions has proven ineffective. A more sustained and physical defense strategy is needed.
• THAAD and Missile Defense: THAAD is seen as a necessary step in reinforcing the U.S. nuclear umbrella and protecting allies. It has already caused tension with China.
• U.S. and China Cooperation: Despite the need for cooperation, the U.S. may have to take unilateral actions to counter North Korea, even if it strains relations with China.

Conclusion

• Legacy of the Pivot: While the "pivot" is not a new concept, it has been a significant and consistent effort to counter China's growing influence in the Asia-Pacific.
• Future Outlook: The next administration will face pressure to address North Korea's nuclear threat, likely through increased defense spending and strategic measures like THAAD. Diplomatic engagement with China will remain important, but the U.S. may need to take more assertive actions to protect its interests and those of its allies.
• Regional Dynamics: The U.S. must continue building and maintaining strong relationships with Southeast Asian nations, despite the challenges posed by China's influence and the unpredictable nature of regional leaders like Duterte.