2015年-世界发展银行全球_Sri_Lanka___Ending_Poverty_and_Promoting_Shared_Prosperity_162页_4mb

报告摘要

Summary of the SRI LANKA Systematic Country Diagnostic

Core Content

The Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Sri Lanka is a comprehensive analysis of the country's progress toward the World Bank Group's twin goals of ending extreme poverty and promoting shared prosperity in a sustainable manner. It evaluates the critical constraints and opportunities that affect these goals and outlines key priorities for future development.

Main Challenges and Opportunities

1. Fiscal Challenges

Low and Declining Tax Revenues: Sri Lanka has one of the lowest tax revenue-to-GDP ratios globally, dropping from 24.2% in 1978 to 10.7% in 2014.
Exemptions and Inefficiencies: Over 500 types of exemptions for goods and 40 types for corporate and personal income taxes have contributed to the decline in tax revenues.
Rigid Expenditure Profile: A large portion of public spending is non-discretionary, limiting the government's ability to allocate resources to critical development areas.
High Public Sector Employment: Public servants make up 13% of the labor force, similar to the OECD average, leading to increased wage pressures and limited fiscal space.
Fiscal Consolidation Pressures: Recent increases in recurrent expenditures, such as public servant allowances, are being funded by one-time taxes, further constraining the budget.

2. Growth and Employment Challenges

Inward vs. Outward Orientation: Sri Lanka has seen growth primarily in non-tradable sectors like construction, transport, and real estate, which are not sustainable long-term drivers of growth.
Public vs. Private Sector: The public sector plays a significant role in employment and wages, with public sector workers earning more than their private sector counterparts.
Human Capital and Skills: There is a mismatch between education and employment demands, and a lack of skilled workers is a constraint to economic competitiveness.
FDI Attraction: Despite efforts, FDI is not efficiently retained due to inefficient regulatory environments and high informal sector activity.

3. Social Inclusion Challenges

Spatial Inequality: Poverty is concentrated in certain regions, particularly in post-conflict areas and the Estate Sector.
Ethnic and Religious Disparities: Sri Lankan Tamils and Moors have higher poverty rates than the Sinhalese majority.
Gender Inequality: Female labor force participation is low, and the gender wage gap persists. Women in leadership roles are also underrepresented.
Migration and Inclusion: Female labor migrants and their families face significant inclusion challenges.
Social Protection: Current social protection programs are insufficient and inefficient, failing to meet the needs of vulnerable populations.

4. Sustainability Challenges

Social Risks: Aging populations and increased elderly dependency will raise social expenditure demands.
Economic Risks: Fiscal sustainability is under threat due to low tax revenues and high debt servicing costs.
Environmental Risks: Climate change poses a risk to agricultural productivity, particularly in rice yields.
Governance and Institutional Change: While governance reforms are underway, political settlements and institutional adjustments are still needed to ensure sustainable development.

Key Priorities

Fiscal Reform: Strengthen tax collection, reduce exemptions, and improve public expenditure management.
Competitiveness: Enhance human capital development, improve regulatory frameworks, and attract efficient foreign direct investment (FDI).
Social Inclusion: Address ethnic and regional disparities, improve gender inclusion, and enhance social protection systems.
Sustainability: Ensure long-term fiscal sustainability, climate resilience, and institutional reforms to support governance and social development.

Conclusion

Sri Lanka has made significant progress in ending poverty and promoting shared prosperity, but new challenges are emerging as it transitions from a low-income to a middle-income country (MIC). The SCD identifies 22 key areas that influence the twin goals and emphasizes the need for coordinated action across fiscal, competitiveness, inclusion, and sustainability domains. The report highlights that governance reforms and sustainable fiscal policies are essential to maintaining this progress and ensuring inclusive and resilient development in the future.