2015年-世界发展银行全球_Republic_of_Chad___Priorities_for_Ending_Poverty_and_Boosting_Shared_Prosperity_81页_2mb

Summary of the World Bank Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for the Republic of Chad

Core Content

The World Bank's Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for the Republic of Chad focuses on identifying pathways to end poverty and improve shared prosperity by 2030. It outlines the key challenges and opportunities in achieving these goals within a fragile and rapidly growing context.

Main Messages

• Poverty and Growth: Chad has a high poverty rate (over 40 percent), with most poor concentrated in rural areas. While poverty rates have declined slightly between 2003 and 2011, the number of poor has increased due to rapid population growth. Inequities have worsened, particularly for the poorest rural households.
• Fragility and Governance: Chad is a fragile country, influenced by climate change, rapid population growth, and weak governance. The country has a history of internal and external conflicts, which have hindered the development of stable institutions and economic competition.
• Economic Structure: The economy is largely informal, with limited access to markets and services for rural populations. Public spending is highly concentrated in urban areas, especially N'Djamena, while rural areas receive minimal investment.
• Constraints to Poverty Reduction: Several binding constraints hinder poverty reduction, including low productivity in agriculture, poor governance, high investment risks, and inadequate social protection systems.
• Opportunities for Poverty Reduction: Rural development, particularly improving agricultural productivity and enhancing connectivity between rural and urban areas, presents the most promising opportunities for poverty reduction. Social protection and targeted public investment are also critical.
• Growth and Redistribution: Higher growth is necessary but must be accompanied by strong redistribution mechanisms to ensure that the poorest households benefit. This includes simplifying the tax code, increasing social transfers, and improving access to essential services in rural areas.

Key Findings

• Geography and Livelihoods: Chad is divided into three ecological zones: the Sahara, Sahel, and Sudanese belt. The Sudanese belt is the most populated and fertile, while the Sahel is the most arid. Livelihoods are defined by rainfall and groundwater availability, with pastoralism and agriculture being the primary sources of income.
• Population Trends: The population is growing rapidly at 3.5 percent per year, with over 78 percent living in rural areas in 2012. By 2030, urban populations are expected to reach 27 percent of the total.
• Refugee and Displacement Issues: Chad hosts a significant number of refugees and internally displaced persons, contributing to humanitarian challenges and social tensions.
• Climate Change: Average temperatures have increased by 0.8°C since 1975, and precipitation levels have declined in the east. This has forced pastoralists to move further south, increasing conflicts with farming communities.
• Governance and Public Spending: Governance indicators have deteriorated over time, with Chad ranked last in public administration capacity in 2014. Public spending is highly concentrated in urban areas, and there is a significant urban bias in service delivery.
• Economic Vulnerability: Oil revenues, which account for 70% of government revenue, are volatile, making fiscal policy unstable. The lack of diversification and poor business environment have kept the economy informal and hindered private investment.
• Social Protection: Social protection programs have the potential to significantly reduce poverty by providing households with financial resources and services to take informed economic risks. However, these programs are underdeveloped and lack adequate support.
• Knowledge Gaps: There are significant knowledge gaps in understanding the effectiveness of various poverty reduction strategies, particularly in rural areas. The SCD aims to highlight these gaps and avoid drawing conclusions without sufficient evidence.

Main Viewpoints

• Selectivity in Interventions: The SCD emphasizes the need for selectivity in pro-poor interventions to ensure that resources are allocated efficiently and effectively.
• Rural Development: Rural development is identified as a central opportunity for poverty reduction, given the concentration of the poor in these areas and the potential for improving agricultural productivity.
• Security and Stability: Continued security and budget stability are essential for reaping the benefits of poverty reduction interventions. Fragility and conflict remain significant risks.
• Redistribution of Growth: To achieve shared prosperity, growth must be accompanied by strong redistribution efforts. This includes targeted cash transfers, agricultural insurance, and public investment in specific sectors and regions.
• Improving Governance: Strengthening governance, particularly in public procurement, tax collection, and institutional capacity, is critical to improving economic efficiency and social equity.

Key Information

• Poverty Rate: Over 40% of the population lives in poverty, with the majority in rural areas.
• Oil Revenue: Oil revenues constitute 70% of government revenue and are highly volatile, affecting fiscal stability.
• Public Procurement: Public procurement is highly concentrated and often uses single-source methods, leading to inefficiencies.
• Education and Health: Education and health services are poorly allocated and underfunded, particularly in rural areas. Adult literacy is only 22%, and average schooling is 1.5 years per adult.
• Fertility Rates: High fertility rates (7 children per woman) contribute to high dependency ratios and economic inactivity.
• Growth Projections: To eradicate poverty by 2030, Chad needs a per capita consumption growth rate exceeding 9% annually for 15 years, which is unlikely to be achieved without significant redistribution.
• Regional Context: Chad's neighbors, except Niger, are below the Sub-Saharan Africa Global Peace Index average, increasing the risk of conflict spillovers.
• Environmental Degradation: Environmental degradation is a significant issue, with public investment failing to mitigate its impact on air, water, and land.

Conclusion

The SCD highlights the need for targeted and sustainable interventions to reduce poverty and improve shared prosperity in Chad. It underscores the importance of addressing governance, economic vulnerability, and social protection systems, while emphasizing the potential of rural development and structural transformation as key strategies for long-term poverty reduction.