2017年-世界发展银行全球_Poverty_and_Shared_Prosperity_in_Belarus_over_the_Past_Decade___Trends_Drivers_and_Challenges_70页_3mb

Summary of Poverty and Shared Prosperity in Belarus (2003-2015)

Core Content

This report analyzes poverty, inequality, and shared prosperity trends in Belarus from 2003 to 2015, highlighting the key drivers and emerging challenges. It provides a comprehensive update based on the World Bank's Poverty and Equity Global Practice, using data from the Household Sample Survey (HSS) and other official statistics.

Main Trends

• Poverty Reduction:

  • Poverty headcount at the $5/day PPP threshold fell from 32% in 2003 to less than 1% in 2014.
  • At the $10/day PPP threshold, the poverty rate dropped from 82% in 2003 to less than 10% in 2014.
  • Belarus outperformed the ECA region in poverty reduction before the 2009 financial crisis.

• Shared Prosperity:

  • The bottom 40% experienced the highest growth in expenditures during the 2006-2011 period (almost 9% annually).
  • Despite the 2015 recession, the B40 group still saw faster income growth than the T60 group, outperforming many ECA countries and Western Europe.

• Regional Convergence:

  • Poverty reduction was more pronounced in rural areas than in urban areas during 2008-2015.
  • Minsk saw a 54 percentage point reduction in poverty, while rural areas recorded a 75 percentage point decline.

• Income Growth:

  • Wages and pensions were the main contributors to income growth, with wages accounting for 68% of total disposable income growth from 2003-2009 and 47% from 2009-2015.
  • Pensions became increasingly important for the B40 group, contributing 34% of their income growth during 2009-2015.
  • B40 wages increased from 55% to 65% of T60 wages during the period.

• Education and Employment:

  • Educational attainment improved for both B40 and T60 groups.
  • There was a partial convergence in educational endowments, with T60 groups seeing faster increases in higher education.
  • The B40 group had lower employment rates and higher unemployment, often working in less secure and lower-paying sectors.

• Public Services and Access:

  • Urban areas had better access to public services than rural areas, though both B40 and T60 groups saw some improvements.
  • The B40 group still faces challenges in accessing core services, indicating a need for targeted support.

• Inequality:

  • The Gini index of per capita expenditures decreased from 2003 to 2015, indicating reduced inequality.
  • Pensions significantly reduced inequality, lowering the Gini index by 11 points.
  • Social transfers were progressive, with a notable impact on poverty reduction and inequality.

Key Drivers

• Labor Income:

  • Real wage growth and employment rates were central to poverty reduction.
  • Wage growth was driven by increases in real value, not by employment rates.

• Pensions:

  • Pensions grew in line with wages and were a crucial component of shared prosperity.
  • The pension system was effective in redistributing income, especially for low-income households.

• Social Transfers:

  • Social assistance and subsidies played an increasing role in supporting the B40 group.
  • The system was progressive, with benefits such as unemployment and child benefits being particularly efficient in reducing poverty.

Emerging Challenges

• Population Aging:

  • The elderly population is expected to increase from 15% in 2000 to 35% in 2050.
  • The old age dependency ratio is projected to rise from 20% to 46% by 2050.
  • This will increase pressure on the pension system and highlight the need for active aging strategies.

• Utility Tariff Reforms:

  • Subsidized utility prices accounted for about 2% of GDP and were regressive.
  • Tariff increases, especially in heating, could disproportionately affect low-income households.
  • Without compensation, the share of household budgets devoted to utilities could increase significantly, potentially reversing poverty reduction gains.

• Economic Volatility and Recession:

  • The 2015-2016 recession reversed some of the earlier favorable trends.
  • Poverty headcount increased by 2.5 percentage points in 2015 and further in 2016.

Conclusion

Belarus achieved significant poverty reduction and shared prosperity over the past decade, driven primarily by wage and pension growth. However, the recent recession and demographic shifts pose challenges to sustaining these gains. The report underscores the importance of maintaining and enhancing social protection mechanisms, particularly in the face of rising costs and aging populations. Future policy considerations must address the sustainability of the pension system and the impact of utility reforms on household welfare.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 0-1: Poverty trends in Belarus and the ECA region (2003-2014).

• Figure 0-2: Shared prosperity across the ECA region (2009-2015).

• Figure 1-1: Pre- and post-crisis growth performance in Belarus and comparator countries.

• Figure 2-1: Real GDP growth and investment (2005-2016Q1).

• Figure 3-1: Poverty dynamics and composition (2003-2014).

• Figure 4-1: Evolution of per capita income and expenditures (2000-2014).

• Figure 5-1: Population projections by age group.

• Figure 5-2: Old age dependency ratio projection.

• Figure 5-3: Share of wage and pension recipients over time.

• Figure 5-4: Distribution of utilities subsidies.

• Figure 5-5: Impact of tariff increases.

• Figure 5-6: Share of household budgets devoted to utilities.

• Figure 5-7: Coverage and targeting of utilities support program.

• Table 3-1: Geographic decomposition of poverty changes by type of residence.

• Table 3-2: Geographic decomposition of poverty changes by oblast.

• Table 4-1: Oaxaca-Blinder decomposition of the real wage gap.

• Table 4-2: Alternative treatments of pensions (2015).