2017年-世界发展银行全球_Islamic_Republic_of_Mauritania___Turning_Challenges_into_Opportunities_for_Ending_Poverty_and_Promoting_Shared_Prosperity_191页_9mb

Summary of the World Bank Group Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Mauritania

Core Content

The Systematic Country Diagnostic (SCD) for Mauritania, conducted by the World Bank Group, aims to identify key constraints and priority interventions for achieving the twin goals of ending extreme poverty and improving shared prosperity among the poorest 40 percent of the population. The SCD is designed to support the development of a new Accelerated Growth and Shared Prosperity Strategy (SCAPP) and to inform the preparation of a new Country Partnership Framework (CPF). It is based on a comprehensive analysis of the country's resource base, policy environment, and institutional framework, with a focus on inclusive growth, poverty reduction, and governance.

Main Challenges

1. Inclusive Growth

• Robust Growth During the Commodity Super-Cycle: Mauritania experienced strong GDP growth (averaging 5.5% between 2003 and 2015) driven by high commodity prices, particularly in the mining and oil sectors.
• Growth Is Not Inclusive: The growth model was capital-intensive, narrow-based, and job-creating limited, leading to limited structural transformation.
• Growth Is Cooling: With the end of the commodity super-cycle, GDP growth has declined, and the real effective exchange rate (REER) has appreciated, undermining competitiveness.
• TFP Decline: Total Factor Productivity (TFP) has been falling at an annual rate of 2.5% since 2000, highlighting the limited contribution of human capital to growth.

2. Poverty and Shared Prosperity

• Poverty Reduction Is Limited: Poverty reduction was primarily driven by relative price changes that benefited rural producers, rather than productivity gains or structural reforms.
• Inequality Remains High: The bottom 40 percent of the population saw the most significant gains in household expenditure, but this is not sufficient to achieve inclusive poverty reduction.
• High Food Prices: Food prices in Nouakchott have been relatively high, impacting urban populations more severely and reducing purchasing power.
• Limited Access to Social Services: Poor access to education, healthcare, and land has hindered the development of human capital and equitable opportunities.

3. Governance

• Narrow Political Settlement: Political stability has been achieved, but hierarchical and discriminatory traditional practices persist, creating foundational obstacles to inclusive development.
• Public Administration Weaknesses: The public sector lacks transparency, accountability, and efficiency, which hampers resource management and policy implementation.
• Social Contract Needs Reinforcement: There is a need to strengthen the social contract and enhance the legitimacy of public institutions to support inclusive growth and social cohesion.

4. Fragility

• Environmental Fragility: Coastal erosion and desertification pose significant long-term risks to economic and social development.
• Social Fragility: The complex social fabric and traditional power structures can undermine inclusive growth and social cohesion.

Key Recommendations

1. Sustaining and Accelerating Inclusive Growth

• Leverage Mineral Wealth: Improve the transparency and sustainability of extractive sector management to support labor-intensive sectors and poverty-reducing investments.
• Harness Livestock and Fisheries: Invest in environmentally resilient production, promote private sector-led value addition, and diversify the export base.
• Develop Productive Cities: Transform urban centers into dynamic and resilient economic hubs and invest in human capital to capitalize on the demographic dividend.

2. Promoting Equity

• Improve Education System: Enhance education quality and access to ensure human capital development.
• Ensure Equitable Land Distribution: Promote fair land allocation in the Senegal River Valley to support agricultural development.
• Reduce Food Prices: Address high food prices in Nouakchott and improve rural energy access to support poverty reduction.

3. Reinforcing Good Governance and Social Cohesion

• Strengthen Macroeconomic Policies: Implement better macro-fiscal rules to counterbalance cyclical resource revenues and support non-extractive sectors.
• Rebalance Public Expenditure: Shift focus from large infrastructure projects to sectors with higher inclusion potential, such as livestock and human development.
• Improve Regulatory Environment: Enhance transparency in key product markets, access to credit, and governance of state-owned enterprises (SOEs) to support private sector development.

Underlying Fundamentals

• Informal Practices: The dominant influence of informal patrimonial and traditional practices needs to be reduced through rules-based governance and increased accountability.
• Climate Resilience: The country must strengthen resilience against climate change to protect its natural resource-based economy.

Conclusion

The SCD highlights that Mauritania's recent growth and poverty reduction have been largely driven by commodity price booms, which are unsustainable in the long term. To achieve sustainable and inclusive development, the country must diversify its economy, improve governance, and address structural barriers that limit equitable access to resources and opportunities. The SCD provides a roadmap for the Government and stakeholders to move towards shared prosperity and poverty reduction by 2030.

Key Messages

• Mauritania has abundant natural resources, a strategic location, and a diverse yet stratified social structure, creating a complex development environment.
• Growth has been capital-intensive, narrow-based, and inequitable, failing to create sustainable jobs or drive structural transformation.
• Poverty reduction has been concentrated among the bottom 40 percent, but not driven by productivity or structural reforms.
• Fiscal policy has been prudent, but increased public investment has led to rising public debt and fiscal vulnerability.
• Governance and institutional reforms are critical for sustaining development and promoting inclusiveness.
• Climate change and social fragility are underlying risks that must be addressed through long-term strategies.

Priority Constraints and Solutions

References

• The SCD was prepared with input from World Bank Group staff, peer reviewers, and national stakeholders.
• The core team was led by Bronwyn Grieve, Wael Mansour, and Paolo Zacchia.
• Key data sources include the DTIS 2016, EPCV Survey, and World Bank staff calculations.