20140704-Maybank_KERPL-Daily_Edge_11页_330kb
报告摘要
Daily Edge Summary - 4 July 2014
Core Content
The Daily Edge report for 4 July 2014 provides an analysis of the Philippine financial market, focusing on the banking sector and other industries. It outlines the results of a new stress test by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP), updates on key companies, and market outlook.
Main Points
Banks: REST Stress Test
- The BSP mandated universal, commercial, and thrift banks to conduct real estate stress tests (REST) to evaluate their capital buffer against a 25% write-off of real estate exposure (REE) and other real estate property.
- REE at end-2013 reached PHP1.006 trillion, accounting for 21.8% of total loan portfolios.
- The stress test assumes a 25% write-off of REE, which reduces qualifying capital by 25.6% and CAR by over 4 ppts to 13.4%.
- CET1 ratio must be at least 10%, and CAR should not fall below 14% to meet the REST requirements.
- The report states that all banks in the universe are likely to pass the stress test based on current capital levels and REE estimates.
- The BSP's approach is proactive and not reflective of imminent vulnerabilities in the real estate sector, and it prefers stress tests over absolute limits to avoid hindering real estate development.
Market Talk
- China Banking Corp (CHIB) plans to increase its ownership in its Bancassurance subsidiary Manulife China Bank Life Assurance Corp from 5% to 40%, and also plans to purchase 246 shares of its thrift bank unit China Bank Savings.
- First Philippine Holdings Corp (FPH) extended its common shares buy-back program to July 2016, with a budget of PHP6.0 billion, and may still purchase up to PHP2.65 billion from the original budget.
Breach in REST Limits
- If a bank breaches the REST limits, it must formally explain to the BSP and submit an action plan within 30 calendar days.
- Failure to comply could result in sanctions for engaging in unsafe and unsound practices.
Expanded Real Estate Reporting (2012)
- The BSP expanded reporting requirements in 2012 to include loans to developers, investments in real estate-related securities, and ancillary services such as rental and management.
- Banks had to report on a quarterly basis, starting from January 30, 2013, covering the October-December 2012 period.
Key Figures
Real Estate Exposure (End-2013)
| Real Estate Exposure (PHPm) | Value |
|---|---|
| Real estate loans | 1,006,000 |
| ROPA | 109,108 |
| Non-current assets held for sale | 3,695 |
| Total REE for stress test | 1,115,108 |
Stress Test Impact
| Metric | Existing | Adjusted for Stress Test |
|---|---|---|
| Qualifying capital (PHPm) | 1,088,000 | 809,223 |
| Risk-weighted assets (PHPm) | 6,190,200 | 6,050,812 |
| CAR (%) | 17.6% | 13.4% |
Bank Universe Scenario Analysis
| Bank | Post-Stress Test (CAR) | Post-Stress Test (CET1) | FY14E (CAR) | FY14E (CET1) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDO | 13.0% | 9.2% | 16.4% | 13.3% |
| BPI | 11.7% | 9.5% | 16.5% | 14.0% |
| CHIB | 10.2% | 8.8% | 15.8% | 14.4% |
| EW | 16.6% | 7.4% | 20.2% | 11.2% |
| MBT | 13.7% | 8.2% | 17.1% | 11.9% |
| RCB | 14.0% | 8.9% | 17.8% | 12.7% |
| PBB | 19.3% | NA | 24.2% | NA |
| PNB | 15.6% | 14.8% | 21.8% | 18.5% |
| SECB | 14.6% | 10.0% | 17.7% | 13.2% |
| UBP | 13.1% | 9.8% | 16.5% | 13.2% |
Earnings and Valuations (as of 3 July 2014)
| Stock | Share Price (PHP) | Target Price (PHP) | Upside (%) | Recommendation |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BDO | 92.95 | 96.00 | 3 | HOLD |
| BPI | 95.05 | 93.50 | -2 | HOLD |
| CHIB | 55.80 | 60.00 | 8 | HOLD |
| EW | 30.00 | 31.80 | 6 | HOLD |
| MBT | 89.60 | 92.00 | 3 | HOLD |
| PBB | 29.20 | 27.00 | -8 | BUY |
| PNB | 90.40 | 109.00 | 21 | BUY |
| RCB | 54.10 | 65.00 | 20 | BUY |
| SECB | 123.20 | 141.00 | 14 | BUY |
| UBP | 120.00 | 127.00 | 6 | HOLD |
The Week Ahead
- 4 July 2014: EEI Corporation, Vitarich Corporation, National Reinsurance Corporation of the Philippines
- 7 July 2014: Top Frontier Investment Holdings, Inc., Minerales Industrias Corporation
- 9 July 2014: Basic Energy Corporation, Imperial Resources, Inc., Manila Bulletin Publishing Corporation, Abacore Capital Holdings, Inc.
- 10 July 2014: DFNN, Inc., Cirtek Holdings Philippine Corporation
- 11 July 2014: Annual Stockholder's Meeting (multiple companies)
Conclusion
The report highlights the BSP's proactive measures in ensuring the banking sector's resilience to real estate shocks. It provides detailed analysis on the impact of stress tests and the market outlook for various financial institutions. The overall sentiment is neutral to positive, with some banks like PBB, PNB, and RCB showing buy recommendations based on their financial performance and valuations.
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