20131008-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_11页_922kb

Investment Daily Note Summary - 8 October 2013

Core Content Overview

This daily note provides an analysis of the Hong Kong and global financial markets, focusing on stock performance, economic data, and market indices. It highlights key stocks with their current prices, target prices, stop-loss levels, and positive factors. The note also discusses market sentiment, economic indicators, and investment recommendations.

Main Points

Market Performance

• Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 22,973, down 164 points or 0.7%, falling below the 10-day and 20-day moving averages.
• HSCEI: Closed at 10,427, down 0.9%.
• U.S. Markets: The Dow declined 136 points to 14,936, while the U.S. consumer credit increased by $13.63bn, exceeding market estimates.
• Gold: New York gold futures closed at $1,325.10/oz, up 1.2%.
• Crude Oil: New York crude oil futures fell $0.81 to $103.03/bbl.

Key Stocks

• Sinosoft Tech (1297.HK):

  • Current Price: HK$2.08
  • Target Price: HK$2.45
  • Stop Loss: HK$1.80
  • Positive Factors: Attractive valuation, potential for improved 2H13 results
  • Performance: Share price rallied beyond the short-term downtrend with higher trade volume
  • P/E Ratio: Estimated at 20.3X, lower than peers like Kingdee (268.HK) at 293X P/E

• Labixiaoxin (1262.HK):

  • Current Price: HK$3.93
  • Target Price: HK$4.37
  • Stop Loss: HK$3.60
  • Positive Factors: Targeting children's market, benefits from potential one-child policy reforms
  • Performance: Share price plunged and stayed flat with large trade volume
  • P/E Ratio: Estimated at 11.1X

Sector Highlights

• Dotcom and Sports Apparel: Strong performance with Kingdee (268.HK) and NetDragon (777.HK) surging 8.0% and 6.7% respectively; Li Ning (2331.HK) and ANTA Sports (2020.HK) up 9.2% and 6.1% respectively.
• Real Estate: SHKP (16.HK) fell 2.6% after offering a 10%+ discount; Sino Land (83.HK) and New World Development (17.HK) declined by 1.7% and 1.9% respectively.
• Newer Stocks: Nexteer (1316.HK) fell 8.2% on its trading debut.

Economic Data and Events

U.S. Data Highlights

• Consumer Credit: Increased by $13.63bn, surpassing the estimated $12bn.
• Nonfarm Payrolls: Expected to release data from 8–12 October, with September data at 178K.
• Unemployment Rate: Remained at 7.3% for September.
• Factory Orders: Increased by 0.3% in August, up from -2.4% previously.
• PPI YoY: Rose 0.2% in September.
• Retail Sales: Increased by 0.2% MoM.

China Data Highlights

• Foreign Reserves: Expected to be released on 10–15 October.
• New Yuan Loans: Increased to 645.0B in September.
• Money Supply: M0 YoY at 9.3%, M1 YoY at 9.4%, M2 YoY at 13.9%.
• Aggregate Financing: At 1570.0B in September.

Technical and Strategic Insights

Sinosoft Tech

• Valuation: Attractive P/E ratio compared to peers.
• Growth Drivers: Strong performance in export tax software (28% of revenue, 77% YoY growth) and e-Government solutions (36% of revenue, 43% YoY growth).
• Recommendation: Buy at HK$2.04, target HK$2.45 (24X P/E), stop-loss at HK$1.80.

Labixiaoxin

• Market Position: Second-largest jelly-product producer in China, with a 10.3% market share.
• Growth: 1H13 net profit rose 16% YoY; gross margin widened to 41.7%.
• Product Launch: Launched Angry Bird candy series and new jelly product.
• Recommendation: Buy now, target HK$4.37, stop-loss at HK$3.60.

Market Indices and Valuations

Market Data Highlights

Best Performers

• BYD Company (1211.HK): Price HK$38.750, 1D chg. 6.0%, 1W chg. 14.5%, 1M chg. 25.0%
• Kunlun Energy (135.HK): Price HK$11.760, 1D chg. 3.2%, 1W chg. 9.7%
• China Res Power (836.HK): Price HK$19.000, 1D chg. 2.2%, 1W chg. 3.6%
• FE Horizon (3360.HK): Price HK$5.300, 1D chg. 1.9%, 1W chg. 5.6%
• Hutchison (13.HK): Price HK$98.850, 1D chg. 1.9%, 1W chg. 5.0%

Worst Performers

• Yanzhou Coal (1171.HK): Price HK$7.390, 1D chg. -3.4%, 1W chg. -5.7%
• Shandong Weigao (1066.HK): Price HK$7.450, 1D chg. -3.1%, 1W chg. -5.6%
• Dongfeng Group (489.HK): Price HK$11.380, 1D chg. -2.7%, 1W chg. -3.9%
• Belle Int'l (1880.HK): Price HK$11.160, 1D chg. -2.6%, 1W chg. -4.6%
• SHKP (16.HK): Price HK$102.400, 1D chg. -2.6%, 1W chg. -4.7%

Exchange Rates and Interest Rates

• USD/HKD: 7.7541

• EUR/USD: 1.3575

• GBP/USD: 1.6096

• USD/JPY: 96.7400

• AUD/USD: 0.9438

• NZD/USD: 0.8294

• USD Index: 79.9240

• U.S. Treasury Yields:

  • 2-year: 0.3412%, +1.25 bps in 5D
  • 10-year: 2.6174%, -3.26 bps in 5D
  • 30-year: 3.6873%, -2.98 bps in 5D

• HK HIBOR:

  • 1-month: 0.2164%, +0.07 bps in 5D
  • 3-month: 0.3857%, +0.00 bps in 5D

Key Recommendations

• Sinosoft Tech (1297.HK): Buy at HK$2.04, target HK$2.45, stop-loss HK$1.80.
• Labixiaoxin (1262.HK): Buy now, target HK$4.37, stop-loss HK$3.60.

Analysts and Disclosure

• Analysts: Hannah Li, CAIA and Minnie Li.
• Disclosure: The views expressed reflect the analysts' personal opinions. SHKF may have financial interests in the mentioned issuers, including market-making activities or investment banking revenue. No conflicts of interest are disclosed for the analysts involved.