20140117-新鸿基金融集团-Investment_Daily_Note_11页_916kb

Investment Daily Note Summary - 17 January 2014

Core Content Overview

This daily investment note provides an analysis of stock market performance, key stock recommendations, economic data, and market events for the day. It includes insights into Hong Kong and global equity indices, major ETFs, and the performance of specific stocks. The report also highlights technical and fundamental analysis for selected stocks and outlines upcoming economic releases and events.

Main Market Performance

Global Indices

• Dow Jones Industrial Average: Closed at 16,417, down 64 points.
• S&P 500: Closed at 1,845, down 2 points.
• NASDAQ: Closed at 4,218, up 3 points.
• Crude Oil Prices: New York crude oil futures closed at US$93.96/bbl, down US$0.21.
• Gold Prices: New York gold futures closed at US$1,240.20/oz, up US$1.90.

Hong Kong Indices

• Hang Seng Index (HSI): Closed at 22,986, up 84 points, capped by the 23,000 level.
• HSCEI: Closed at 10,187, down 14 points.
• Market Turnover: Main Board turnover was HK$65.2bn, up 9.3%.

Key Stock Highlights

China Oilfield Services (2883.HK)

• Current Price: HK$21.90
• Target Price: HK$24.40
• Stop Loss: HK$20.00
• Positive Factors: Production capacity growth and technological progress may lift revenue.
• Fundamental Analysis: Adjusted net profit is estimated to jump 36% yoy to RMB6.2bn, with a P/E ratio of 12.8X for FY13E.
• Technical Analysis: The share price hit a low of HK$21.35 on 14 Jan and pulled back to the 0.382 support level of the uptrend. Recommendation: Buy, targeting HK$24.40, and Hold if it does not fall below HK$20.00.

ZTE (763.HK)

• Current Price: HK$15.88
• Target Price: HK$18.00 (short-term), HK$20.00 (medium-term)
• Stop Loss: HK$14.50
• Positive Factors: Construction of 4G base stations and mid-/low-end smartphone demand growth.
• Fundamental Analysis: Adjusted net profit is estimated to reach ~RMB1.5bn in FY13E, compared with last year's loss of RMB2.8bn. Net profit is expected to surge to RMB2.6bn this year, with a P/E ratio of 27.1X for FY13E and 16.4X for FY14E.
• Technical Analysis: The stock rallied beyond the 20-day MA. Recommendation: Buy, targeting HK$18.00 in the short-term and HK$20.00 in the medium-term.

Market Data and Trends

Best Performers

• Lenovo Group (992.HK): Gained 5.0%, up 16.1% in the last week.
• Sinofert (297.HK): Gained 4.1%, up 4.1% in the last week.
• ZTE (763.HK): Gained 3.3%, up 4.5% in the last week.
• FE Horizon (3360.HK): Gained 2.8%, up 0.3% in the last week.

Worst Performers

• Belle International (1880.HK): Slipped 4.7%, down 4.5% in the last week.
• Brilliance China (1114.HK): Slipped 3.6%, down 4.2% in the last week.
• CNBM (3323.HK): Slipped 3.2%, down 2.5% in the last week.
• China Coal (1898.HK): Slipped 3.0%, down 0.7% in the last week.

Major ETF Performance

• CSOP A50 (2822.HK): Closed at 8.78, down 0.2%.
• ChinaAMC CSI 300 (3188.HK): Closed at 28.15, flat.
• E Fund CSI 300 (3100.HK): Closed at 26.25, flat.
• SPDR Gold Trust (2840.HK): Closed at 927, down 0.2%.

Economic Data and Events

Technical and Valuation Insights

Major Index Valuations and Estimated Earnings Growth

Summary of Key Points

• Stock Recommendations: China Oilfield Services and ZTE are highlighted as potential buys with specific price targets and stop-loss levels.
• Market Trends: Hong Kong stocks rebounded but failed to sustain above the 23,000 level. Electronic stocks saw a steep rally.
• Economic Outlook: Upcoming reports include U.S. housing starts, China GDP, and Eurozone PMI data.
• Technical Indicators: COSL and ZTE showed technical improvements, with COSL rebounding after hitting the 100-day MA.
• Market Valuations: Indices like HSI and HSCEI are significantly below their long-term average P/E ratios, indicating potential for growth.

Disclaimer and Conflicts

• This report is for informational and discussion purposes only.
• The views expressed are the personal views of the research analyst.
• SHKF may have financial interests in the issuers mentioned and may engage in market-making activities.
• No solicitation or offer to buy or sell securities is made in this report.