2018年马来西亚房地产市场展望（英文）_110页-10mb

2018 Asia-Pacific Real Estate Market Outlook: Malaysia

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the Malaysian real estate market in 2017 and outlines the outlook for 2018. It is prepared by the CBRE | WTW Malaysia Research Team and highlights key trends, challenges, and opportunities across different property sectors.

Joint Venture Overview

• CBRE | WTW Joint Venture: Formed in May 2016, this joint venture combines CBRE's global reach with WTW's local expertise in Malaysia.
• Historical Context: CBRE acquired businesses from WTW in Singapore and Hong Kong in the 1970s, which are still part of its Asian operations.
• WTW Subsidiaries: The WTW Group includes several subsidiaries in East Malaysia such as C H Williams Talhar Wong & Yeo Sdn Bhd, C H Williams Talhar & Wong (Sabah) Sdn Bhd, and C H Williams Talhar & Wong (Brunei) Sdn Bhd.

Key Figures and Trends

• 2017 Market Performance:
  • Total transactions in 1H 2017: Over 153,000 transactions worth RM67 billion.
  • Volume declined by 6%, while value increased by 5% compared to 1H 2016.
  • Residential transactions declined by 14.5% y-o-y in 1H 2016, but only 7% in 1H 2017, showing a strategic shift by developers.
• Residential Market:
  • Constituted 61.8% of volume and 48.4% of value in 2017.
  • Over 146,497 unsold residential units as of 2Q 2017.
  • Developers are focusing on more affordable products to address price-income mismatches.
  • 78.7% of new launches in 1H 2017 priced above RM250,000, with 49.8% costing more than RM400,000.
  • Affordable housing initiatives are being considered for centralization to improve delivery efficiency and policy effectiveness.
• Commercial Market:
  • Office sector faced over-supply concerns in Klang Valley, with a vacancy rate of 23.6% in 1Q 2017.
  • Incoming supply could push vacancy rates to 32% by 2021.
  • Shopping complexes are expected to increase supply by 70% in Klang Valley, 40% in Penang, and 150% in Iskandar Malaysia.
  • A freeze on office and retail developments has been recommended.
• Industrial and Hotel Sectors:
  • These sectors are expected to have a more optimistic outlook in 2018 and beyond.
  • Tourism remains a significant economic activity, supported by initiatives like the "2020 Visit Malaysia Year" and airport upgrades.
  • The industrial sector is poised for growth due to the Digital Free Trade Zone and Industrial Revolution 4.0 initiatives.
  • The East Coast Rail Link (ECRL) and KL-Singapore High Speed Rail (HSR) are expected to enhance Malaysia's connectivity.

Market Challenges

• Political Uncertainty: The upcoming 14th General Election may lead to market anxiety.
• Economic Retaliation: Global events like Brexit and geopolitical tensions in North East Asia may impact the market.
• Currency Fluctuations: The Ringgit has weakened against major currencies, but credit recovery is observed.
• Credit Constraints: Banks are becoming more cautious, increasing the barrier for property buyers to secure loans.
• Regulatory Measures: Cooling measures such as Real Property Gains Tax, foreign ownership restrictions, and freezing development approvals are in place to prevent speculation and ensure market sustainability.

Key Policies and Initiatives

• Tourism Tax: Implemented on 1 September 2017, RM10 per room per night for all foreign tourists.
• Legal Fees Changes: The Solicitor's Remuneration (Amendment) Order 2017 set new fee structures for property transactions.
• PR1MA Financing Scheme: A special financing scheme introduced on 14 February 2017, offering larger loan amounts and interest-free periods for the first five years.

Market Infrastructure and Projects

• Rail Projects:
  • ECRL (2024): From Port Klang to Tumpat.
  • EDTP (2020): Gemas to Johor Bahru.
  • HSR (2026): From Bandar Malaysia to Jurong East, Singapore.
  • LRT Line 3 (2020): Bandar Utama to Klang.
  • MRT 2 (2022): Sungai Buloh to Putrajaya.
  • MRT 3 (In-planning): Circle Line.
• Highway Projects:
  • DASH (2019): Sungai Penchala to Shah Alam.
  • EKVE (2019): Sungai Long to Ukay Perdana.
  • MEX II (2021): Putrajaya to KLIA 2.
  • Pan-Borneo Highway (2022/2023): Tawau to Kuching.
• Port Projects:
  • Kuantan Port New Deepwater Terminal (2018): Under construction.

Outlook for 2018

• Market Uncertainty: Despite a relatively stable economic environment, market turbulence is expected due to political and economic factors.
• Residential Market: Likely to see moderate growth with continued focus on affordable housing.
• Commercial Market: Expected to remain under pressure due to over-supply and economic concerns.
• Industrial and Hotel Sectors: Expected to thrive due to tourism growth and digital transformation.
• Investor Confidence: May be affected by regulatory changes and political uncertainty.

Summary

The Malaysian real estate market in 2017 showed resilience despite a soft overall performance, with a focus on affordability and strategic adjustments by developers. The residential sector remained dominant, but challenges such as overhang and price-income mismatches persisted. The commercial sector faced over-supply concerns, particularly in the office and retail segments. The industrial and hotel sectors, however, were viewed as more promising, driven by tourism growth and infrastructure development. Political and economic uncertainties, including the upcoming General Election and global trends, are expected to continue influencing the market in 2018. Regulatory measures aimed at curbing speculation and ensuring market sustainability are in place, though they require careful implementation to avoid adverse effects. The real estate industry is anticipated to see a gradual recovery in the second half of 2018, supported by ongoing infrastructure projects and economic initiatives.