2018马来西亚房地产市场展望（英文版）_108页_10mb

2018 Malaysia Real Estate Market Outlook Summary

Core Content Overview

The 2018 Malaysia real estate market outlook report provides a comprehensive analysis of the market trends, challenges, and opportunities across different property sectors, including residential, retail, industrial, and commercial. The report highlights the government's efforts to manage market conditions and the impact of external and internal economic factors on the sector's performance.

Main Points

Economic Performance in 2017

• The Malaysian economy showed robust growth in 2017, with a 5.7% GDP growth in the second quarter and a 4.8% annual forecast.
• Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) improved to 80.7 points in 2Q 2017, indicating increased consumer confidence.
• Business Conditions Index (BCI) reached a 11-quarter high of 114.1 points, reflecting positive business sentiment.
• Construction sector experienced 8.3% growth in 2Q 2017, the highest among all sectors.

Residential Market

• The residential sector remained the largest component, contributing 61.8% of volume and 48.4% of value in 1H 2017.
• Despite a 14.5% decline in transactions in 1H 2016, the decline in 1H 2017 was only 7%, showing a slight improvement.
• Residential overhang increased, with 146,497 unsold units as of 2Q 2017.
• The government implemented a freeze on residential developments priced over RM1 million to address over-supply.
• Affordable housing remains a challenge due to price-income mismatch, location issues, and poor building quality.

Commercial and Office Sector

• The office sector in Klang Valley faced high vacancy rates, reaching 23.6% in 1Q 2017, with potential to rise to 32% by 2021.
• The government recommended a freeze on office and retail developments to manage supply.
• Kuala Lumpur remains an attractive office destination for MNCs due to its cost competitiveness and strategic location.

Retail Sector

• The retail market in Klang Valley faced challenges in 2017, with retail sales growth dropping to 1.1% in 3Q 2017.
• Consumer caution due to rising living costs, RON 95 price hikes, and a weak Ringgit affected retail performance.
• The Retail Trade Index (RTI) rebounded to 105 points, driven by increased tourist arrivals, disposable income, and government spending.

Industrial and Hotel Sectors

• The hotel and industrial sectors showed the most optimistic outlook for 2018 and beyond.
• Tourism is a key economic activity, supported by geographical and cultural diversity, and initiatives like "2020 Visit Malaysia Year".
• Industrial Revolution 4.0 and Digital Free Trade Zone are expected to drive industrial growth.
• Industrial sector is anticipated to benefit from e-commerce growth and logistics needs, especially in warehousing and supply chain.

Loan and Financing Trends

• Loan approvals for residential properties remained stable, with an approval rate of 42.9% in 2Q 2017.
• Residential loan applications totaled RM61 billion, representing 29.9% of total loan applications.
• Non-residential loan applications totaled RM22.1 billion, or 10.8% of total.
• PR1MA introduced a special financing scheme, allowing consideration of EPF contributions and interest-free for the first 5 years.

Market Challenges

• Market turbulence is expected in 2018 due to General Election uncertainties and global geopolitical tensions.
• International political shifts such as Brexit and US election results have raised concerns about deglobalisation and economic retaliation.
• Credit availability for property buyers has tightened, due to prudent lending and weakening financial profiles.

Infrastructure Projects

• A range of infrastructure projects are in progress, including rail and highway developments, deep-sea ports, and airport upgrades.
• ECRL and KL-Singapore HSR are expected to enhance Malaysia's connectivity within ASEAN and the One Belt One Road initiative.
• Kuantan Port and Penang are also seeing infrastructure development.

Key Information

• Residential market is facing price-income mismatch, with most new launches above RM250,000.
• Affordable housing schemes are underperforming due to location, amenities, and quality issues.
• Office and retail developments are under freeze to manage over-supply.
• Hotel and industrial sectors are expected to grow, supported by tourism and logistics.
• Loan approvals are stable, but higher barriers exist due to economic uncertainty.
• Political factors, especially the General Election, are likely to cause market volatility.
• Infrastructure projects are key to future growth, particularly in logistics and connectivity.

Conclusion

The 2018 Malaysia real estate market is expected to be mixed, with residential and commercial sectors facing challenges, while hotel and industrial sectors are optimistic. The government's regulatory measures and infrastructure development are key to stabilizing and driving growth in the coming year.