2018年-查塔姆研究所_Sudan_after_the_Loss_of_the_South_10页_273kb

Meeting Summary: Sudan after the Loss of the South

Core Content

This meeting summary, presented by Yasir Arman, the Secretary-General of the Sudan People's Liberation Movement-North (SPLM-N), addresses the political, social, and economic challenges facing Sudan in the wake of South Sudan's independence. The discussion focuses on the transformation of Sudan's internal dynamics and the need for a new national project that includes all Sudanese people.

Main Views and Key Information

The Northern Question

• Historical Context: Sudan has often been viewed through North-South, Muslim-Christian, and Arab-African dichotomies, which are considered oversimplifications.
• Post-Independence Reality: The independence of South Sudan has left the North as a separate entity, but the conflict is not solely between North and South.
• Root Cause: The crisis stems from the lack of an inclusive national project and a correct national formation process that recognizes Sudan's diversity.
• Marginalization: The current national project excludes the majority of Sudanese people, especially women, on cultural, religious, economic, political, and gender grounds.
• Consequences: These policies have led to continuous wars, inequality, injustice, and instability.

Current Situation in Sudan

• Economic Crisis: Sudan's economy is in deep trouble, with the Sudanese pound losing value rapidly (from $1 to $4–$5).
• War and Governance: There is a full-scale war in the new geographical South (Darfur to Blue Nile), and a governance crisis that can only be resolved through democratisation and restructuring.
• Regional Revolutions: The revolutions in Egypt, Libya, and Tunisia have de-legitimised the one-party system, highlighting the need for change in Sudan.
• Internal Struggles: The NCP and Sudanese army are plagued by intense rivalries and power struggles, further complicating the situation.

What the International Community Needs to Do

• Humanitarian Access: Pressure must be placed on Khartoum to allow humanitarian assistance and safe corridors for aid delivery.
• War Crimes Investigation: An independent international committee should be established to investigate war crimes and human rights violations.
• Cease Fire: The air bombardment of civilians must stop.
• Holistic Approach: The international community should adopt a holistic approach to address the essence of the crisis, not just its symptoms. The root of the problem lies in Khartoum, not in the South.

The Way Out

• Regime Change: The only viable solution is to remove the NCP regime and transform the power structure in Khartoum.
• Democratic Government: A democratic government must be established through the unification of all opposition forces and civil society.
• Alliance and Consensus: The SPLM-North seeks an alliance based on a broad national consensus to achieve a paradigm shift in Sudanese politics.
• Disarmament and Reconciliation: A truth and reconciliation process is needed to end the war and resolve the governance crisis.
• Uniting Sudan: The dream of uniting Sudan is based on shared communities and a legal border. The SPLM-North advocates for a new Sudanese union with strategic relations and regional peace and stability.

Key Quotes and Observations

• "The seedbed of the crisis is Khartoum, not Kadugli, Nyala or Port Sudan."
• "The NCP is acquiring arms and should be disarmed itself."
• "Life is based on dreams. South Sudan would not have been possible without dreams."
• "The Sudanese state is a failure as a result of the NCP."
• "We are not warmongers. There needs to be a truth and reconciliation process."

Q&A Highlights

• Relations with Other Opposition Groups: The SPLM-North is in discussions with Darfuri opposition forces and aims to form a united structure for negotiations.
• Beja People's Experience: The Beja people remain marginalised, with 80% of women dying from malnourishment in the region.
• Disarmament and Political Context: The disarmament process was based on the idea of unified Sudan, but the SPLM-North refuses to disarm without political guarantees.
• International Mediation: A truth and reconciliation process is needed, and international investigation is essential to address serious accusations.
• NDA Principle: The NDA principle of a multi-ethnic and multi-religious Sudan could have led to a better outcome.
• Political Representation: Yasir Arman argues that Sudanese diplomats do not represent the people, and the SPLM-North lacks political support and mandate to speak for all Sudanese.

Conclusion

Yasir Arman advocates for a new national project that is inclusive, democratic, and just, emphasizing the need for regime change, humanitarian access, and international support. He calls for a holistic approach to address the root causes of the crisis and to rebuild a unified Sudan on a new foundation.