斯德哥尔摩国际和平研究所-Climate-Security-–-Making-it-#Doable_30页_953kb

Climate Security Summary

Core Content

This report, prepared for the Planetary Security Conference in The Hague, examines the intersection of climate change and security in 2018 and outlines key processes that will shape climate security actions in 2019. It highlights the increasing recognition of climate-related security risks across global and regional organizations, despite growing geopolitical tensions and skepticism towards multilateral cooperation.

Main Authors and Their Expertise

• Dan Smith is the Director of SIPRI and has extensive experience in conflict and peace research, including climate change and insecurity, peacebuilding, and global conflict trends.
• Malin Mobjörk is a Senior Researcher at SIPRI, focusing on climate change, security, and development. She has a PhD in Water and Environmental Studies.
• Florian Krampe specializes in peace and conflict research, environmental and climate security, and international security. He is affiliated with Uppsala University.
• Karolina Eklöw is a Research Assistant at SIPRI, with a focus on climate change and conflict, peacebuilding, and institutional responses by the EU, AU, and UN.
• Rickard Söder and Mikaela Wang provided valuable support as interns in the SIPRI Climate Change and Risk Programme in autumn 2018.

Key Findings from 2018

2.1 The State of Global Climate

• The global mean temperature for January to October 2018 was 0.98 ± 1.12°C above pre-industrial levels.
• El Niño effects had worn off, and La Niña was in effect, leading to a cooling phase.
• CO₂ concentrations reached new highs, with record levels observed at the Mauna Loa Observatory.
• Oceans are warming 40% faster than previously estimated, contributing to coral reef destruction, rising sea levels, and melting ice.
• Arctic and Antarctic sea ice were both below average, with a significant decline in multi-year ice.
• The Earth Overshoot Day came earlier in 2018, indicating increased ecological strain.

2.2 Climate Events and Weather-Related Disasters

• Extreme weather events such as heatwaves, droughts, wildfires, and flooding were widespread, causing significant humanitarian and economic losses.
• Kerala, India experienced severe flooding, displacing over 220,000 people and killing 900.
• Australia faced a multi-year drought, affecting wheat harvests by 40% in Sweden and similar effects in Denmark.
• Greece suffered from heat and wildfires, resulting in 100 deaths.
• California had its deadliest wildfire season, with the Camp Fire killing 85 people.
• Sumatra, Indonesia and Kuwait also experienced devastating floods, with over 21 deaths in Indonesia and 31 deaths in Somalia from a rare cyclone.
• Typhoon Mangkhut in the Philippines caused over 100 deaths and forced half a million people to evacuate.

2.3 Geopolitical Tensions and Multilateral Progress

• Despite rising geopolitical tensions, global and regional organizations made progress in addressing climate-related security risks.
• The UN Security Council (UNSC) began incorporating climate risk assessments into resolutions and has seen the formation of a Group of Friends on climate security, indicating global support.
• A Climate Security Mechanism was established within the UN system, located in the Department of Political Affairs (DPA), with support from the UNDP and UNEP.
• An Independent Expert Working Group on climate-related security risks was set up with support from Sweden, and Germany has also reconvened a similar group.
• The High-Level Political Forum (HLPF) in July 2019 will monitor SDG10, SDG13, and SDG16, which are crucial for the peace and security agenda.

Towards #Doable

3.1 Three Parallel Processes in 2019

1. UN Secretary General's Climate Summit (2019): A key moment for shaping the climate action agenda, with a focus on mitigation and adaptation.
2. Short-term diplomatic efforts: Continued in the UN, UNSC, and regional organizations, though progress is not guaranteed.
3. HLPF in July 2019: Provides an opportunity to integrate climate-related security risks into long-term goals and monitor progress on SDGs 10, 13, and 16.

3.2 The New Normal - Or Not

• Climate-related risks are becoming more frequent and severe, affecting human security, infrastructure, violent conflicts, and national security.
• The concept of comprehensive security is essential for understanding the multifaceted nature of climate risks and their interconnectedness with other security dimensions.
• There is a need for collaborative action and capacity building to effectively address these risks across different time horizons and policy areas.

Conclusion

The report emphasizes the importance of international cooperation and multilateral efforts in addressing climate-related security risks. It outlines the growing awareness and action by global and regional organizations, and calls for continued momentum and leadership to make climate security actions #Doable.