20211101-招银国际-比亚迪电子-00285.HK-Industry_headwinds_to_persist_into_4Q__D_G_to_HOLD_6页_1mb
报告摘要
CMB International Securities | Equity Research | Company Update Summary
Core Information
- Company: BYD Electronics (285 HK)
- Rating: HOLD (Downgraded from BUY)
- Target Price (TP): HK$26.44 (Previously: HK$49.5)
- Current Price: HK$23.15
- TP Change: +14% (Up/Downside)
- Valuation: 11.8x FY22E P/E (Trading at fair value)
Key Highlights
- Downgrade Reason: Due to challenging 4Q21E outlook, including chip shortage, slower iPad/e-cigarette ramp, and lower revenue guidance.
- Revenue Guidance: Revised down to RMB90bn for FY21E (from RMB100bn).
- EPS Revision: Trimmed FY21-23E EPS by 26-35% due to lower guidance and conservative gross margin assumptions.
- Performance in 3Q21:
- Revenue grew 6% YoY to RMB21.4bn.
- Net profit declined 72% YoY to RMB514mn, below estimates.
- GPM remained flat at 7.2% (vs 16.8% in 3Q20).
- Segment Performance:
- Handset OEM: Single-digit YoY growth.
- Component: Flattish QoQ/YoY.
- New/automotive products: Strong growth of 30%+ YoY.
- Headwinds:
- Chip shortage and smartphone demand weakness are expected to persist into 4Q21E and impact profitability in FY22E.
- E-cigarette channel destocking continues into 4Q21E.
Financial Forecast
| Metric |
FY19A |
FY20A |
FY21E |
FY22E |
FY23E |
| Revenue (RMB mn) |
53,028 |
73,121 |
89,477 |
113,572 |
141,583 |
| YoY growth (%) |
29.2% |
37.9% |
22.4% |
26.9% |
24.7% |
| Net profit (RMB mn) |
1,598 |
5,441 |
2,897 |
3,677 |
5,155 |
| EPS (RMB) |
0.71 |
2.41 |
1.29 |
1.63 |
2.29 |
| YoY growth (%) |
-25.5% |
240.6% |
-46.8% |
27.0% |
40.2% |
| P/E (x) |
27.1 |
8.0 |
14.9 |
11.8 |
8.4 |
| P/B (x) |
3.7 |
2.9 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
1.9 |
| Yield (%) |
0.4 |
1.3 |
0.7 |
0.8 |
1.2 |
| ROE (%) |
9.4 |
24.9 |
11.8 |
13.2 |
15.9 |
Earnings Revision
| Metric |
New (FY21E) |
Old (FY21E) |
Change (%) |
| Revenue (RMB mn) |
89,477 |
97,307 |
-8% |
| Gross Profit (RMB mn) |
6,710 |
7,768 |
-14% |
| Net Profit (RMB mn) |
2,897 |
3,937 |
-26% |
| EPS (RMB) |
1.29 |
1.75 |
-26% |
| Gross Margin (%) |
7.5% |
8.0% |
-0.5 ppt |
| Net Margin (%) |
3.2% |
4.0% |
-0.8 ppt |
Revenue Breakdown
| Segment |
FY19 |
FY20 |
1H21 |
2H21E |
FY21E |
FY22E |
FY23E |
| Assembly |
26,847 |
31,152 |
30,471 |
26,029 |
56,500 |
74,000 |
92,000 |
| Component (metal/glass/plastic) |
18,562 |
17,576 |
7,110 |
7,488 |
14,598 |
15,371 |
16,512 |
| New intelligent products |
6,025 |
9,476 |
5,014 |
7,779 |
12,793 |
17,270 |
23,315 |
| Auto intelligent systems |
1,594 |
1,817 |
1,290 |
1,708 |
2,998 |
4,047 |
5,464 |
| Total |
53,028 |
73,121 |
44,531 |
43,647 |
89,477 |
113,572 |
141,583 |
Valuation and TP
- SOTP-based TP: HK$26.44 (13.4x FY22E P/E).
- Valuation Assumptions:
- Assembly EMS business: 10x P/E.
- Component/e-cigarette business: 13x P/E.
- Mask business: 8x P/E (reflecting near-term growth potential).
Peer Comparison
| Company |
Market Cap (US$ mn) |
Price (LC) |
TP (LC) |
Up/Downside |
P/E (FY21E) |
P/E (FY22E) |
P/B (FY21E) |
P/B (FY22E) |
ROE (FY21E) |
ROE (FY22E) |
| BYDE |
6,704 |
23.15 |
26.44 |
+14% |
14.9 |
11.8 |
2.6 |
2.3 |
11.8 |
13.2 |
| Tongda |
311 |
0.25 |
0.56 |
NA |
NA |
3.1 |
3.4 |
3.4 |
NA |
NA |
| AAC Tech |
5,273 |
33.95 |
45.3 |
33% |
17.6 |
15.9 |
1.6 |
1.5 |
9.1 |
9.1 |
| TK Group |
316 |
2.95 |
4.1 |
39% |
NA |
4.6 |
4.6 |
4.6 |
NA |
NA |
| Ju Teng |
205 |
1.33 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
7.8 |
6.7 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
|
| Everwin |
2,629 |
14.02 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
19.9 |
12.7 |
2.3 |
2.1 |
|
| Lens Tech |
16,515 |
21.27 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
18.0 |
14.0 |
2.3 |
2.0 |
|
| Foxconn |
3,501 |
68.80 |
NA |
NA |
NA |
14.5 |
12.1 |
0.8 |
0.7 |
|
Key Ratios
| Metric |
FY19A |
FY20A |
FY21E |
FY22E |
FY23E |
| Revenue Growth (%) |
29.2% |
37.9% |
22.4% |
26.9% |
24.7% |
| Gross Margin (%) |
7.5% |
13.2% |
7.5% |
7.8% |
8.1% |
| Operating Margin (%) |
1.9% |
7.9% |
2.3% |
2.7% |
3.3% |
| Net Profit Margin (%) |
3.0% |
7.4% |
3.2% |
3.2% |
3.6% |
| ROE (%) |
9.4% |
24.9% |
11.8% |
13.2% |
15.9% |
| Current Ratio (x) |
1.6 |
1.8 |
1.9 |
1.8 |
1.8 |
| Inventory Turnover Days |
38 |
41 |
38 |
37 |
37 |
| Receivable Turnover Days |
58 |
52 |
49 |
46 |
46 |
| Payable Turnover Days |
57 |
52 |
52 |
52 |
52 |
Analyst Certification
- The analyst certifies that all views reflect personal opinions.
- No compensation is directly or indirectly related to the report.
- No trading in the stock covered within 30 days prior to the report date.
- No trading planned within 3 days after the report date.
- No financial interests in the companies covered.
CMBIS Ratings
- BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
- HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
- SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
- NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIS.
Disclaimer
- There are risks involved in trading any securities.
- The report is for informational purposes only.
- CMBIS does not provide individually tailored investment advice.
- Past performance does not guarantee future results.
- Investors are encouraged to consult a professional financial advisor.
展开完整摘要
试读结束，高清完整版pdf/doc/ppt,请点下载
