20210901-招银国际-比亚迪电子-00285.HK-Outlook_intact_despite_NT_headwinds__Maintain_BUY_6页_1mb

报告摘要

BYD Electronics (285 HK) Company Update Summary

Core Content

This report provides an update on the financial performance and future outlook of BYD Electronics (285 HK), focusing on its earnings, growth prospects, and valuation. Despite challenges in the first half of 2021, the firm maintains a BUY rating, with a revised target price of HK$49.5, reflecting a 16.4x FY22E P/E valuation.

Key Financial Performance

1H21 Revenue Growth: 42% YoY, driven by strong performance in smart and automobile products.
Net Profit Decline: 34% YoY due to margin compression from chip shortages, lower mask sales, and weak high-end demand.
FY21E Revenue Guidance: RMB95-100bn, down from the prior RMB100bn, due to ongoing chip shortage uncertainty.
Earnings Recovery: Expected to rebound in 4Q21E with a 32% YoY increase in net profit, as GPM normalizes.
EPS Revisions: Trimmed by 32% for FY21E, 12% for FY22E, and 2% for FY23E, mainly due to margin pressures.

Business Segments and Growth Drivers

Assembly Services: Expected to grow at 51% in 2H21E, with a 63% share of FY22E revenue.
Component Business (Metal/Glass/Plastic): FY22E revenue is projected at RMB17,808 million, with a 15x P/E multiple applied.
E-cigarette Business: Expected to reach RMB1.5bn in FY21E and RMB2.4bn in FY22E. BYD has installed 40 automated production lines, and full utilization is expected in 2022E.
Smart and Automobile Products: Share gains in Apple and Xiaomi are on track, with continued expansion into e-cigarette and smart devices.

Valuation and Target Price

New Target Price: HK$49.5, based on SOTP (Sum of the Parts) valuation, which accounts for different growth profiles of business segments.
Valuation Breakdown:
- Assembly: 10x P/E
- Components: 15x P/E
- E-cigarette: 20x P/E
- Mask: 8x P/E (lower due to near-term growth potential)
Implied P/E: 16.4x FY22E EPS
Valuation Comparison: The target price is in line with peers such as Tongda and AAC Tech, but lower than Foxconn and Catcher.

Financial Highlights

Metric	FY19A	FY20A	FY21E	FY22E	FY23E
Revenue (RMB mn)	53,028	73,121	97,307	117,744	147,850
Net Profit (RMB mn)	1,598	5,441	3,937	5,643	7,306
EPS (RMB)	0.71	2.41	1.75	2.50	3.24
P/E (x)	41.6	12.2	16.9	11.8	9.1
P/B (x)	5.7	4.4	3.8	3.2	2.6
Net Margin (%)	3.0	7.4	4.0	4.8	4.9
ROE (%)	9.4	24.9	15.5	18.5	19.7

Outlook and Catalysts

Positive Outlook: Despite short-term headwinds, the company is expected to benefit from:
- Industry Consolidation
- Supplier Diversification (Apple, Xiaomi)
- Growth in E-cigarette Market
Earnings Recovery: 4Q21E earnings are expected to rebound by 32% YoY, with GPM improving to 10.4%.
Share Gain: Continued share gain in Apple components and expansion into iPad OEM and watch components in FY21E.
Target Price Adjustment: New TP of HK$49.5 reflects a more conservative valuation compared to the previous TP of HK$55.0.

Share Performance and Market Data

Market Cap: HK$79,989 million
Average 3-Month Turnover: HK$384.25 million
52-Week High/Low: HK$63.10 / HK$31.95
Total Issued Shares: 2,253 million
Shareholding Structure:
- Golden Link Worldwide Ltd: 65.76%
- Gold Dragonfly Ltd: 4.98%
- China Southern Fund: 1.19%

Analysts and Contact Information

Analysts: Alex Ng, Lily Yang
Contact:
- Alex Ng: (852) 3900 0881, alexng@cmbi.com.hk
- Lily Yang: (852) 3916 3716, lilyyang@cmbi.com.hk

Related Reports

CMBI Tech Corporate Day takeaways (16 Jun 2021)
Expect margin pressure to ease ahead; Maintain BUY (30 Apr 2021)
FY20 in-line; Reiterate BUY with multiple drivers ahead (31 Mar 2021)

Summary of Key Figures

1H21 Revenue: RMB44,531 million (+42% YoY)
1H21 Net Profit: RMB1,643 million (-34% YoY)
4Q21E Net Profit: Expected to rebound by 32% YoY
FY21E Revenue: RMB97,307 million
FY21E Net Profit: RMB3,937 million
FY22E Revenue: RMB117,744 million
FY22E Net Profit: RMB5,643 million
Target Price (TP): HK$49.5 (+39% from current price of HK$35.5)

CMBIS Ratings

BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months
OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark
MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark