战略与国际研究中心-Weapons-of-Mass-Destruction-in-Iran_25页_320kb

Summary of Weapons of Mass Destruction in Iran

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Iran's development of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) and their delivery systems, focusing on ballistic missiles and related technologies, as of April 1998. It outlines the sources of missile technology, the number and types of missiles Iran possesses, and the potential for future development.

Main Delivery Systems and Missiles

Scud B Missiles

• Origin: Soviet-designed, first operational in 1967, designated as R-17E or R-300E.
• Range: 290-300 kilometers with conventional payload.
• Warhead: Approximately 1,000 kg, with 800 kg high explosive payload.
• Guidance: Strap-down inertial guidance using three gyros.
• Deployment: Typically on MAZ-543 TELs.
• Inventory:
  • Estimated 6-12 launchers and 200-300 missiles.
  • Some sources suggest higher numbers, up to 170 missiles.
• Production: Iran can now manufacture most components, with possible exceptions in guidance and rocket motors.

Scud C Missiles

• Origin: North Korean design, often referred to as a "Scud C."
• Range: Up to 500 kilometers.
• Warhead: 700 kg high explosive payload.
• Accuracy: Estimated CEP of 700 meters at maximum range, though practical accuracy may be as wide as 3,000-4,000 meters.
• Deployment: Likely to be used for targeting southern Gulf, Iraq, and parts of Syria, Turkey, and Pakistan.
• Launchers: Possibly 5-10 Scud C launchers, including four new North Korean TELs received in 1995.

No-Dong Missiles

• Origin: North Korean design, possibly based on Chinese CSS-5 and CSS-N3 systems.
• Range: Up to 1,300 kilometers (No-Dong 1), and potentially up to 1,800 kilometers (if based on CSS-5).
• Warhead: Up to 1,750 pounds (800 kg).
• Status: Flight tests in 1993, with operational training and storage facilities by 1995.
• Development: Progress has been slow, but mobile launchers were seen in 1997.
• Indigenous Development: Reports suggest Iran is developing variants for domestic production, with IOC dates ranging from 1999-2001.

Tapeo Dong Missiles

• Variants:
  • Tapeo Dong 1: Estimated range of 2,000 kilometers.
  • Tapeo Dong 2: Estimated range up to 3,500 kilometers.
• Design: Liquid-fueled, two-stage systems.
• Deployment: Requires assembly at fixed sites, unlike the No-Dong.

Chemical, Biological, and Nuclear Programs

• Chemical and Biological Weapons:
  • Iran may be using North Korean and Russian technology to develop more lethal chemical and biological warheads.
  • Scud C missiles could be modified to carry these agents, especially persistent nerve gas and biological agents.
  • Iran may have more advanced capabilities than Iraq had during the Gulf War.
• Nuclear Weapons:
  • The document suggests Iran may have the capability to develop a nuclear warhead, given the technology it has acquired.
  • The SS-4 (R-12) missile, a Russian design, could be adapted for nuclear use due to its throwweight and range.

Technology Transfer and Foreign Assistance

• North Korea:
  • Provided Scud C and No-Dong missiles.
  • Possibly transferred chemical and biological warhead technology.
  • Iran may have received missile components via transshipment with Syria.
• China:
  • Supplied CSS-8 missiles (converted SA-2s) with ranges of 130-150 kilometers.
  • Assisted in developing indigenous missile R&D and production facilities.
  • Helped with anti-ship cruise missiles like the CS-801 and CS-802.
• Russia:
  • Key supplier of missile technology, despite adherence to the Missile Technology Control Regime.
  • Provided guidance systems, propulsion components, and specialized materials like maraging steel and 21HKMT alloy.
  • Sold Iran high-strength steel and foil for long-range missile programs.
  • Some Russian firms were involved in the sale of missile components disguised as gas compressors and pumps.

Missile Infrastructure and Capabilities

• Assembly and Production:
  • Iran has at least two missile assembly plants, one near Isfahan and another near Semnan.
  • Facilities may also exist near Bandar Abbas for the Seersucker.
  • Iran is developing both solid and liquid-fueled missiles, aiming for MRBM capabilities.
• Testing and Development:
  • Test sites are located near Shahroud and possibly in other areas.
  • Iran has a telemetry station near Taba.
  • These efforts are under the control of the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
• Dispersal and Hardening:
  • Iran has built shelters and tunnels to protect its missile forces from air attacks.
  • These facilities are believed to be part of a strategy to ensure survival of its missile systems in the event of limited air strikes.

Conclusion

Iran has developed a significant ballistic missile arsenal, including Scud B, Scud C, No-Dong, and Tapeo Dong systems. The country has acquired technology from North Korea, China, and Russia, which has allowed it to improve its missile capabilities and potentially develop WMDs. While the exact number and performance of these missiles remain uncertain, the evidence suggests Iran is progressing toward a more advanced and diversified missile program. The document highlights the complexity of Iran's WMD and missile development, as well as the international concerns regarding the sources of its technological advancements.