战略与国际研究中心-Syria-and-Weapons-of-Mass-Destruction_34页_157kb

Syria and Weapons of Mass Destruction Summary

Core Content

This document provides an analysis of Syria's weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs, focusing on its missile capabilities, chemical and biological weapons, and the strategic rationale behind their development. It is a draft section of a book on the Arab-Israeli balance, authored by Anthony H. Cordesman and circulated for feedback in 2000.

Main Points

1. Syrian Missile Programs

• Acquisition History:

  • Syria obtained the FROG 7 in 1972 and the Scud B in 1974.
  • The Scud B was deployed in sheltered positions near Damascus after the 1982 Israeli invasion of Lebanon, to avoid detection and improve operational effectiveness.
  • Syria acquired the SS-21 (Scarab) in 1983 and improved its readiness and effectiveness over time.
  • In 1991, Syria purchased a 30-kW research reactor from China and received Scud B missiles.

• Missile Production and Capabilities:

  • Syria can now produce Scud B missiles with a range of 260-300 km and a CEP of around 300 meters.
  • It has an estimated inventory of 200 Scud B missiles.
  • The Scud C, acquired from North Korea, has a range of 500-600 km, a CEP of 650-850 meters, and a payload of 450-600 kg.
  • Syria is believed to be developing a long-range solid-fueled missile with the help of Iran and North Korea.

• Missile Limitations:

  • Scud B has limited range and accuracy, making it vulnerable to Israeli detection.
  • The SS-21 lacks chemical warheads and requires Russian support for development.
  • Syria has not acquired nuclear-capable missiles with the range to hit Israeli nuclear facilities like Dimona.

2. Chemical Weapons

• Development and Stockpiling:

  • Syria began a major effort in chemical warfare after its clashes with Israel in 1982.
  • It established at least two chemical weapons production facilities, possibly three, including one near Damascus, one near Homs, and one near Saffirah.
  • It is believed to have stockpiled nerve gas (VX, Sarin), mustard gas, and other chemical agents.

• Delivery Systems:

  • Syria modified Scud B and Scud C missiles to carry chemical warheads.
  • It may have used modified Soviet ZAB series incendiary bombs and PTAB-500 cluster bombs for chemical delivery.
  • There are reports of chemical artillery shells and bomblets being developed for use in cluster munitions.

• Effectiveness:

  • A Scud B with VX could contaminate a 0.53 km wide and 3.5 km long area under optimal conditions, with a potential casualty rate of 50%.
  • However, real-world conditions may reduce lethality to 5-20%.
  • Bomblets may increase dispersal effectiveness and lethality of VX.

3. Biological Weapons

• Facilities and Capabilities:

  • Syria has developed biological weapons, with at least one major facility, possibly two, including one underground.
  • It is believed to have produced toxins like Botulin and Ricin, and possibly anthrax.

• Delivery Systems:

  • Biological agents could be delivered via bombs, cluster munitions, aircraft, and covert means such as contaminating water and food supplies.
  • The M-114 and M-32 bombs are capable of carrying biological agents, with the M-32 able to carry up to 35 kg.

• Strategic Use:

  • Biological weapons could be used in a covert manner, affecting large populations without immediate detection.
  • They may be used in conjunction with chemical weapons or in independent attacks, especially against civilian populations.

4. Strategic Rationale

• Syria's WMD programs are primarily aimed at countering Israel's military superiority, particularly its nuclear capabilities.
• These programs are also intended to maintain its strategic balance with Iraq.
• Syria views WMD as a means to deter Israeli conventional attacks and to project power in the region.

5. Regional Trends and Satellite Imagery

• The Middle East has seen a proliferation of WMD capabilities among several countries.
• Syria has improved its targeting capabilities using commercial satellite imagery, which is now highly detailed and accurate.
• This technology is used for both conventional and WMD targeting, enhancing Syria's intelligence and precision capabilities.

Key Information

• Missile Inventory (1999):

  • 18 SS-21
  • 18 FROG-7
  • 26 Scud B and Scud C
  • Additional Sepal SS-1B and SSC-3 coastal defense units

• Chemical Weapons Production:

  • Two major plants established, possibly more.
  • VX production is believed to occur near Damascus.
  • Bomblets for VX dispersal were reportedly developed in 1997.

• Biological Warfare:

  • Facilities are suspected to exist on land and possibly underground.
  • Toxins like Botulin and Ricin were produced in 1991.
  • Biological warfare is considered a more covert and potentially more devastating option.

• International Involvement:

  • Russia and China have provided critical support in missile development and production.
  • North Korea has supplied Scud-C missiles, which are more advanced than Soviet variants.
  • Syria has cooperated with Iran in missile manufacturing and technology transfer.

Conclusion

Syria's WMD programs, particularly in chemical and biological warfare, are part of a broader regional arms race. While it has not pursued nuclear weapons aggressively, it has made significant strides in missile technology and chemical warfare capabilities. The use of commercial satellite imagery and foreign assistance has enhanced its targeting and delivery systems, making it a potential threat to Israel and its neighbors. The strategic intent behind these programs is to counter Israeli dominance and maintain a regional military balance.