国际能源署-2021年全球能源评论（英文）-2021.5-36页_456kb

Global Energy Review 2021 Summary

Core Content

The Global Energy Review 2021 by the International Energy Agency (IEA) evaluates the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on global energy demand and CO₂ emissions in 2021. It highlights the interplay between economic recovery, vaccine rollouts, and energy policies in shaping the trajectory of energy use and emissions.

Main Points

• Economic Recovery: The global economy is expected to rebound by 6% in 2021, with the IMF projecting this growth. This is a strong recovery from the 3.5% drop in 2020.
• Energy Demand: Global energy demand is projected to increase by 4.6% in 2021, surpassing 2019 levels by 0.5%. This rebound is driven by emerging markets, which account for 70% of the projected increase.
• CO₂ Emissions: Global energy-related CO₂ emissions are expected to rise by 4.8% in 2021, reversing 80% of the 2020 drop. Emissions will be 1.2% below the 2019 peak, marking the second-largest annual increase since the 2008 financial crisis.
• Fuel-Specific Trends:
  • Oil: Demand is expected to rebound by 6% in 2021, but will still remain 3% below 2019 levels. Aviation demand remains 20% below 2019.
  • Coal: Demand is set to grow by 4.5%, pushing it close to 2014 peak levels. The power sector in Asia will be the main driver of this rebound.
  • Natural Gas: Demand is projected to rise by 3.2%, making it the fastest-growing fossil fuel in 2021, with 1.3% increase above 2019 levels.
  • Renewables: Renewables are expected to grow by 3% in 2020 and 8.3% in 2021, with solar PV and wind leading the way. Their share in global electricity generation is set to reach 30% in 2021, the highest since the Industrial Revolution.

Key Findings

• Global Energy Demand:

  • 2021 Growth: 4.6% increase, 0.5% above 2019.
  • Emerging Markets: Account for 70% of the growth, with China contributing half of the global increase.
  • Advanced Economies: Energy use remains 3% below 2019 due to ongoing pandemic impacts.

• CO₂ Emissions:

  • 2020 Drop: Global CO₂ emissions fell by 5.8%, the largest decline in history.
  • 2021 Rebound: Emissions are expected to grow by 4.8%, bringing them 1.2% below 2019.
  • China: CO₂ emissions are projected to be 6% above 2019, with coal contributing 70% to the increase.
  • India: Emissions are expected to rise by 1.4%, with coal demand rebounding significantly.
  • United States: Emissions are projected to be 5.6% below 2019, with coal use still 12% below 2019.
  • EU: Emissions are expected to rebound by 80 Mt, but only reverse one-third of the 2020 drop.

• Transport Sector:

  • Oil Demand: Remains 3% below 2019 in 2021, with aviation still 20% below.
  • Gasoline: Expected to rise by 1.8 mb/d, but 1.2 mb/d below 2019.
  • Diesel: Will rebound by 1.5 mb/d, still 0.3 mb/d below 2019.
  • Jet Fuel & Kerosene: Expected to increase by 0.8 mb/d, or 17%, but remain 30% below 2019.

• Renewables:

  • Electricity Generation: Renewables are set to provide more than half of the increase in global electricity supply in 2021.
  • Solar PV & Wind: Expected to grow by 145 TWh and 275 TWh, respectively, contributing two-thirds of renewables' growth.
  • China: Will account for almost half of the global increase in renewable electricity generation, with solar PV and wind expected to generate over 900 TWh.

Economic Impacts of Covid-19

• Global Recovery: Expected to grow by 6% in 2021, with India and China leading the way.
• India: Likely to see a 12% GDP growth in 2021, with energy demand rebounding by 7%.
• China: Economic activity and energy demand are expected to grow, with coal demand increasing by almost 9%.
• Uncertainties: The speed of vaccine rollouts, economic scarring from lockdowns, and stimulus effectiveness remain major factors influencing energy demand and emissions.

Conclusion

The report underscores that while the global economy is recovering, energy demand and CO₂ emissions are rebounding, though not fully returning to pre-pandemic levels. Renewables continue to be the success story of the pandemic, with significant growth in electricity generation. However, coal and oil remain dominant in certain regions, especially China, India, and Asia, which could impact global emission targets. The IEA emphasizes the need for sustainable recovery policies to mitigate the rebound in emissions and align energy use with long-term climate goals.