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A Moment of Opportunity in the EU-Turkey Relationship

Core Content

The EU-Turkey relationship, though long and complex, presents a significant opportunity for deeper cooperation and modernization. While Turkey's accession to the EU remains a central goal, the relationship is increasingly shaped by shared challenges such as migration, security, and economic integration. The authors, Marc Pierini and Sinan Ülgen, highlight that both sides have the potential to enhance their partnership in response to these issues.

Main Views

• Diversified but Stagnant Relationship: The EU-Turkey relationship has grown rapidly and diversified since the 1990s, but lacks a unified framework. The accession process has stalled due to Turkey's regression in rule-of-law reforms, which has negatively impacted other areas of cooperation.
• Economic Integration as a Path Forward: The EU-Turkey Customs Union, a major success, should be upgraded to include services and agricultural trade. This would unlock new economic benefits and align with Turkey's interests in joining the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP).
• Shared Challenges: Issues such as the Syrian and Iraqi crises, the threat from the Islamic State, and migration flows from the Middle East require joint action between the EU and Turkey.
• Counterterrorism Cooperation: Enhanced communication and information-sharing mechanisms are essential to combat terrorism effectively.
• Political and Institutional Changes: The new EU leadership and Turkish government offer a chance to reset the relationship. However, the EU's enlargement fatigue and Turkey's domestic political shifts pose obstacles.

Key Information

The State of the EU-Turkey Relationship

• Turkey views EU accession as central to its domestic agenda and has developed new forms of cooperation with the EU, including visa liberalization and readmission agreements.
• The EU-Turkey Customs Union, established in 1995, is a major success but needs revision to meet current needs.
• The EU's accession negotiations with Turkey have stalled due to the country's weakened rule-of-law architecture.
• Regional instability, particularly in Syria and Iraq, has heightened security concerns for both the EU and Turkey.

Recommendations

• Upgrade the Customs Union: To fully realize economic benefits, the customs union should be expanded to cover services and agricultural trade, and include new disciplines like public procurement and dispute resolution.
• Revive TTIP Involvement: Turkey's inclusion in TTIP could incentivize it to modernize the customs union, as it would align with EU trade standards and liberalize services and investments.
• Address Rule-of-Law Concerns: The EU should consider unblocking chapters on judiciary and rule-of-law issues to facilitate deeper cooperation.
• Enhance Migration Dialogue: The visa liberalization roadmap and readmission agreement should be advanced to manage migration flows more effectively.
• Strengthen Foreign Policy Coordination: Both parties should work together on counterterrorism, humanitarian aid, and the management of regional crises like the one in Syria.

The EU Accession Process

• Turkey initiated accession talks in 2005, but progress has been minimal, with only one new chapter opened since 2010.
• The Cyprus issue and the lack of progress in key technical chapters such as competition policy and public procurement have hindered the process.
• The EU's 2014 progress report notes both achievements and concerns, particularly regarding the independence of the judiciary and rule of law.
• The political climate in both the EU and Turkey has become more challenging, with Euroskepticism rising in the EU and the Turkish government showing less commitment to reforms.

Political Context

• Public support for EU accession in Turkey has increased, reflecting a growing recognition of the EU as a stable and desirable partner.
• The new Turkish government, led by Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoğlu, has expressed a renewed interest in strengthening the EU relationship.
• The EU's new leadership, including the appointment of Federica Mogherini as High Representative for Foreign Policy, signals a potential shift in approach to Turkey.

Conclusion

The current moment offers a unique opportunity for the EU and Turkey to re-evaluate and strengthen their relationship. By addressing the stalled accession process, modernizing the customs union, and deepening cooperation on shared challenges, both parties can move toward a more integrated and stable partnership. However, this requires a concerted effort to overcome political and institutional barriers and to align their goals and expectations.