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Summary: Avoiding a Divorce – A Virtual EU Membership for Turkey

Core Content

This document explores the challenges in the EU-Turkey relationship and proposes a "virtual EU membership" framework as a potential solution to sustain cooperation and avoid a deteriorated relationship. The author, Sinan Ülgen, argues that the stalled EU enlargement process and political tensions have weakened both sides' commitment to the relationship. A virtual membership could offer a middle ground between full membership and no cooperation, enabling deeper integration in key areas while respecting Turkey's sovereignty and political preferences.

Main Views

• Membership Stagnation: Turkey has only opened 13 of 33 chapters in EU accession negotiations since 2005, with no new chapters opened since 2010. This reflects a lack of political will on both sides.
• EU's Unpopularity: European leaders are preoccupied with the eurozone crisis and have little appetite for another unpopular enlargement process.
• Turkey's Waning Interest: Turkey's domestic discourse is increasingly detached from the EU, and the EU is no longer a central policy priority for Ankara.
• Need for New Framework: A virtual membership framework could help maintain cooperation in areas like trade, mobility, foreign policy, and climate change, while avoiding the need for full membership.
• Strategic Partnerships as a Model: The document analyzes existing models of EU association, including EFTA countries, Switzerland, and strategic partners, to propose a tailored virtual membership model for Turkey.

Key Information

Turkey's Current Relationship with the EU

• Turkey signed the Ankara Agreement in 1963, which laid the foundation for its customs union with the EU in 1995.
• The customs union allows Turkey to fully implement the EU's common trade policy, eliminating tariffs on industrial goods and reducing tariffs on agricultural products.
• The agreement also includes provisions for legislative harmonization in areas such as customs, competition, and technical standards.
• Turkey is not a full EU member but is a candidate country, engaging in accession negotiations.

Virtual Membership Framework

• A virtual membership would not replace EU membership but would complement the accession process.
• It would allow partial regulatory convergence and influence on EU decision-making without full sovereignty transfer.
• The framework would involve selective application of the EU acquis and approximation of legislation in certain areas.
• It would include institutional participation in EU structures and decision-making processes, though no voting rights would be granted.

Policy Pillars

1. Foreign Policy: Turkey's growing influence in the Arab world could be leveraged for greater EU-Turkey cooperation.
2. Neighborhood Policy: Turkey should be included in the EU's southern neighborhood policy and work with EU agencies on regional development.
3. Security: Turkey should be given a more substantial role in EU-led missions and strategic cooperation with NATO.
4. Trade: The customs union should be deepened, with Turkey included in EU trade negotiations and given observer status in the Trade Policy Committee.
5. Mobility: Visa liberalization is a core component of virtual membership and is essential for building public support.
6. Climate Change: Turkey's participation in the EU's Emissions Trading System could provide new carbon financing and benefit EU industries.

Key Considerations

• Regulatory Convergence: The framework would allow Turkey to adopt EU legislation in specific areas while maintaining sovereignty in others.
• Enforcement Mechanisms: The EU would rely on political and judicial enforcement, including the Association Council and ECJ.
• Institutional Inclusion: Turkey would be involved in EU legislative and executive processes, including comitology and working groups, but not have full voting rights.
• Avoiding Divorce: The virtual membership could serve as a preliminary step to eventual membership or as a pathway to an amicable separation if membership is not possible.

Conclusion

The document emphasizes the need for a new and politically ambitious partnership model to reinvigorate the EU-Turkey relationship. It suggests that a virtual membership could help both sides maintain cooperation in key areas, even in the absence of full EU membership. This approach would require careful negotiation and institutional design, balancing Turkey's sovereignty with the EU's interest in closer ties.