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ERICSSON MOBILITY REPORT Summary

Core Content Overview

The Ericsson Mobility Report provides a comprehensive analysis of global mobile subscriptions, data traffic, and network evolution trends up to 2022. It outlines the growth of mobile technologies, including 5G, LTE, and the Internet of Things (IoT), and highlights key market developments and traffic patterns.

Key Figures

Mobile Traffic Growth Forecast

• All mobile data traffic is expected to grow by 8 times (CAGR: 45%)
• Smartphone traffic will grow 10 times (CAGR: 45%)
• Mobile PC traffic will grow 2 times (CAGR: 15%)
• Tablet traffic will grow 5 times (CAGR: 30%)

Regional Subscriptions Outlook

• Asia Pacific will have the largest share of mobile data traffic by 2022, driven by rapid growth in mobile broadband subscriptions.
• China alone is projected to add 440 million mobile broadband subscriptions between 2016 and 2022.
• North America is expected to have the highest share of 5G subscriptions in 2022, at 25%, while Western Europe will have 5%.
• Latin America is anticipated to see a significant increase in LTE subscriptions, with WCDMA/HSPA and LTE accounting for 90% of all mobile subscriptions by 2022.
• Middle East and Africa will transition from GSM/EDGE-only to WCDMA/HSPA and LTE, with 80% of subscriptions expected to be on these technologies by 2022.

Mobile Broadband Growth

• By 2022, mobile broadband subscriptions will reach 8 billion, accounting for 90% of all mobile subscriptions.
• Mobile broadband will complement fixed broadband in some markets and become the dominant access method in others.
• Smartphones will account for 55% of all mobile subscriptions by 2022, with 95% of these subscriptions expected to be on WCDMA/HSPA, LTE, and 5G networks.

Voice over LTE (VoLTE) Outlook

• VoLTE is becoming mainstream, with over 200 million subscriptions expected by the end of 2016.
• By 2022, VoLTE subscriptions will reach 3.3 billion, making up 60% of all LTE subscriptions.
• In North America and Western Europe, 90% of LTE subscriptions are expected to use VoLTE by 2022.
• Asia Pacific will see a 1.4 billion increase in VoLTE subscriptions from 2016 to 2022.

Mobile Data Traffic by Application

• Mobile video traffic is expected to grow at 50% CAGR, becoming the dominant category, accounting for ~75% of all mobile data traffic by 2022.
• Social networking traffic is projected to grow at 39% CAGR, but its share of total traffic will decline from 15% in 2016 to ~10% in 2022.
• Other application categories (e.g., software updates, file sharing) will have growth rates between 19% and 34%, but will shrink in proportion to overall traffic.

Network Evolution

• LTE networks are evolving rapidly, with downlink peak speeds reaching 1 Gbps by 2022, representing a 6-fold increase since LTE's introduction.
• LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) enhancements such as carrier aggregation, higher order modulation, and 4x4 MIMO are enabling faster data speeds and better network performance.
• 5G networks are expected to cover 10% of the global population by 2022, starting in metropolitan and urban areas.

Key Contributions and Methodology

• The report includes five feature articles, focusing on topics such as slow time-to-content, live streaming, and IoT applications.
• IoT is highlighted as a key enabler of digital business transformation, with the report providing insights into both wide-area and short-range connections.
• Methodology and glossary sections are included for clarity and deeper understanding of the data and terms used.

Summary of Trends

• Mobile subscriptions are growing globally at ~3% CAGR, with smartphones becoming the dominant device type.
• 5G is expected to play a significant role in IoT and enhanced mobile broadband.
• VoLTE is rapidly expanding, with LTE networks becoming the backbone for voice and data services.
• Data traffic is growing at ~45% CAGR, with video and social media being the main drivers.
• Network technology is evolving towards higher speeds, better coverage, and more efficient data transmission.

Conclusion

The Ericsson Mobility Report underscores the accelerating growth of mobile subscriptions and data traffic, driven by smartphone adoption, LTE expansion, and 5G readiness. It also highlights the transition from older technologies like GSM/EDGE to newer ones like LTE and 5G, and the increasing role of IoT in shaping the future of connectivity.