2016年-数据局_爱立信：2016年度移动通信市场调研报告_36页_2mb

Ericsson Mobility Report Summary

Core Content Overview

The Ericsson Mobility Report provides an in-depth analysis of global mobile subscriptions, data traffic, and network evolution, with a special focus on the growth of 5G and IoT technologies. The report outlines trends, forecasts, and key insights from 2015 to 2022, emphasizing the increasing reliance on mobile connectivity across all regions and device types.

Key Figures and Forecasts

Mobile Subscriptions

• Worldwide mobile subscriptions are forecast to reach 8.9 billion by 2022, growing at a 2% CAGR from 2016.
• Smartphone subscriptions will increase to 6.8 billion, growing at a 10% CAGR.
• Mobile broadband subscriptions are expected to reach 8 billion, representing 90% of all mobile subscriptions by 2022.
• LTE subscriptions will grow to 4.6 billion, surpassing GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions by more than five times.
• WCDMA/HSPA subscriptions will grow to 2.8 billion, three times higher than in 2016.
• 5G subscriptions are forecast to reach 550 million by the end of 2022, with 10% population coverage.

Data Traffic

• Total mobile data traffic is expected to grow at a 45% CAGR, reaching 69 EB/month by 2022.
• Smartphone data traffic will grow 10 times, while mobile broadband traffic will grow 8 times.
• Data traffic per smartphone is forecast to reach 11 GB/month by 2022, up from 1.9 GB/month in 2016.
• Data traffic per mobile PC will increase from 5.7 GB/month to 23 GB/month.
• Data traffic per tablet will rise from 2.5 GB/month to 11 GB/month.

Regional Trends

• Asia Pacific is the most populous region and will have the largest share of mobile data traffic, with China expected to add 440 million mobile broadband subscriptions between 2016 and 2022.
• North America is projected to have 25% of its subscriptions for 5G in 2022, with 5.1 GB/month per smartphone.
• Western Europe will see 5% of its subscriptions for 5G, with 2.7 GB/month per smartphone expected by 2016.
• Central and Eastern Europe will experience a strong shift to LTE, with its share growing from 10% in 2016 to 70% in 2022.
• Middle East and Africa will shift from GSM/EDGE-only to WCDMA/HSPA and LTE, with 80% of subscriptions on these technologies by 2022.
• Latin America will see WCDMA/HSPA and LTE subscriptions increase to 90% of all mobile subscriptions by 2022.

Key Technologies and Growth Drivers

• VoLTE is becoming mainstream, with 200 million subscriptions by the end of 2016 and expected to reach 3.3 billion by 2022, making up 60% of LTE subscriptions.
• 5G will be a key enabler for IoT use cases, with 10% population coverage expected by 2022.
• LTE is growing rapidly, with 1.5 billion subscriptions by the end of 2016, and will dominate by 2022.
• IoT is expected to grow significantly, with a forecasted split between wide-area and short-range connections.

Mobile Traffic by Application

• Mobile video traffic is expected to grow at 50% CAGR and account for 75% of all mobile data traffic by 2022.
• Social networking traffic is forecast to grow at 39% CAGR, but its share will decrease from 15% in 2016 to 10% in 2022.
• Live video streaming is becoming more prevalent, driven by social apps and increased network performance expectations.
• File sharing traffic is expected to decline, making up only 5% of total traffic.
• Software updates traffic is increasing, likely due to more frequent app updates.

Network Evolution and Performance

• LTE networks are evolving with LTE-Advanced (LTE-A) features, including carrier aggregation, higher order modulation, and 4x4 MIMO.
• Peak LTE downlink speeds of 1 Gbps are now commercially available, representing a 6-fold increase since LTE's introduction.
• GSM/EDGE-only subscriptions are declining, with a -20% CAGR.
• WCDMA/HSPA subscriptions are expected to reach 2.8 billion by 2022, growing at 5% CAGR.

Summary of Key Contributions

• 5G will be a major driver for future connectivity and IoT.
• LTE is expected to dominate mobile access by 2022.
• VoLTE is becoming the standard for voice services on mobile networks.
• Smartphones will account for 55% of all mobile subscriptions by 2022.
• Data traffic is growing rapidly, with video and social media as the main contributors.
• Mobile broadband will become the primary access method for most users, especially in developing markets.

Additional Notes

• Mobile subscriptions often exceed subscriber numbers due to multiple device ownership and inactive subscriptions.
• Fixed Wireless Access (FWA) is being considered as a complement to fixed broadband.
• Ericsson Traffic Exploration Tool allows for custom data analysis and visualization, accessible at www.ericsson.com/mobility-report.

Conclusion

The Ericsson Mobility Report highlights the rapid growth of mobile subscriptions and data traffic, driven by the increasing adoption of smartphones, LTE, and 5G. It underscores the shift from traditional voice services to data-centric services and the significant role of IoT in shaping the future of mobile networks. The report also emphasizes the importance of network performance, affordability, and regional differences in mobile adoption.