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Summary of the Future of Consumption in Fast-Growth Consumer Markets: ASEAN

Core Content

This report by the World Economic Forum, in collaboration with Bain & Company, explores the future of consumption in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) by 2030, emphasizing the impact of four mega-forces and eight key consumption themes. It highlights the potential for growth, the need for innovation and adaptation, and the importance of addressing societal and environmental challenges to ensure inclusive and sustainable development.

Main Points

Four Mega-Forces Driving Consumption in ASEAN

1. Favorable Demographics

   • A young, tech-savvy population is entering the workforce and migrating to cities.
   • By 2030, ASEAN's working-age population will increase by 40 million, with Indonesia contributing the most.
   • Low labor costs and potential for productivity growth make the region attractive for investment.

2. Rising Income Levels

   • Annual income growth in emerging ASEAN is expected to be between 6% and 8%.
   • By 2030, the average disposable income in Vietnam will rise from $2,000 to $4,000, and in Indonesia from $3,000 to $8,000.
   • This growth will lead to an increase in the number of high- and upper-middle-income households, which will nearly double from 30 million to 57 million.

3. Shifts in Global Geopolitics and Local Regulations

   • ASEAN is becoming a key destination for foreign direct investment (FDI) as companies diversify supply chains.
   • Geopolitical shifts and evolving regulations will create both opportunities and challenges for businesses.
   • Some countries, like Vietnam, are removing foreign ownership limits to attract investment.

4. Digital Tailwinds

   • Digital adoption is accelerating, with over 575 million internet users expected by 2030.
   • Technology-enabled platforms are transforming retail and enabling access to services in rural and low-income areas.
   • Automation may displace low-skilled jobs, necessitating reskilling efforts.

Eight Consumption Themes to 2030

1. Consumer Spending Will Double

   • Driven by the expansion of the middle class, domestic consumption will power 60% of ASEAN GDP.

2. Boundaries of Premium and Value Shopping Will Blur

   • Consumers will seek value for money, with a shift in purchasing behavior towards more affordable luxury products.

3. Digital Ubiquity Will Become the New Normal

   • Digital platforms will be central to the consumer experience, influencing everything from shopping to healthcare.

4. Technology-Enabled Platforms Will Tear Down Socio-Economic Walls

   • These platforms will enable access to services and goods for under-served communities, promoting inclusivity.

5. Local and Regional Competitive Winds Will Prevail

   • Each ASEAN country will follow a unique path to growth, with local brands and policies playing a key role.

6. Shoppers Will Move Beyond Omni-Channel to Expect Retail Omni-Presence

   • Consumers will demand seamless access to products and services across all touchpoints, not just online and offline.

7. Convenience Will Be the New Currency

   • Consumers will prioritize time-saving and easy access to goods and services.

8. Health of People and the Planet Will Be Non-Negotiable

   • Sustainability and health concerns will become central to consumer decision-making.

Key Information

• ASEAN's Economic Potential:

  • The region is projected to become the world's fourth-largest economy by 2030, with a GDP of $4.5 trillion.
  • The population will reach 723 million, with one in six households entering the consuming class from ASEAN.

• Digital Transformation:

  • Digital adoption is expected to reach an inflection point, with the region becoming more connected and inclusive.
  • Digital platforms will play a pivotal role in addressing challenges such as access to healthcare and financial services in rural areas.

• Societal Challenges:

  • The region faces significant issues such as plastic waste, income inequality, and the need for infrastructure upgrades.
  • Governments and businesses must prioritize both economic recovery and long-term sustainability.

• Inclusivity and Adaptation:

  • Businesses must tailor their strategies to each ASEAN market, considering cultural, economic, and regulatory differences.
  • A hyper-local approach is essential for success, as there is no "single ASEAN".

Business Capabilities Required for the Future

• Reset Vision, Mission and Goals: Align with the evolving consumer landscape.
• Realign Offerings: Develop products and services that meet the needs of the new ASEAN consumer.
• Reframe Consumer Engagement: Leverage digital platforms to create more integrated and personalized experiences.
• Restructure Route-to-Market: Focus on omnichannel and retail omni-presence to meet consumer expectations.
• Rethink Supply Chains: Emphasize efficiency and sustainability in logistics and production.
• Reimagine Operating Model and Talent: Invest in reskilling and building a competitive workforce.
• Re-envision the Role of Sustainability: Integrate environmental considerations into business strategies.

Calls to Action

• Create Trade and Investor-Friendly Reforms: Encourage investment and ease of doing business.
• Invest in Socio-Economic Inclusion: Address the skills gap and ensure access to education and healthcare.
• Upgrade Infrastructure: Support urbanization and resource management with both hard and soft infrastructure.

Conclusion

The future of consumption in ASEAN is marked by rapid growth, digital transformation, and a shift towards sustainability and inclusivity. To fully realize this potential, stakeholders must work together to address immediate challenges such as the post-pandemic recovery and long-term issues like income inequality and environmental sustainability. A tailored, hyper-local approach will be critical for success in this diverse and dynamic market.