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The Future of Electricity in Fast-Growing Economies

Core Content

This report, The Future of Electricity in Fast-Growing Economies, published in January 2016, outlines strategies to attract investment in the electricity sector of fast-growing economies. It is a collaborative effort between the World Economic Forum and Bain & Company, building on the 2015 report which focused on mature economies.

The electricity sector in fast-growing economies faces unique challenges, including rising demand, limited infrastructure, and the need to balance energy access, affordability, security, and sustainability. The report emphasizes the importance of policy, regulation, and business strategies to create an environment that supports sustainable and efficient energy systems.

Main Viewpoints

The Need for Investment

Fast-growing economies will require a significant increase in investment to meet growing electricity demand and achieve energy policy objectives. Between 2015 and 2040, non-OECD countries are expected to double their electricity investments, reaching $495 billion annually, compared to $240 billion annually in the past. This totals $13 trillion in investment over the period, with non-OECD countries outspending OECD countries by a ratio of 2 to 1.

The Role of Policy-Makers

Policy-makers are crucial in shaping the most efficient pathways to energy goals. They should develop integrated roadmaps that balance the use of conventional and renewable energy sources, and centralized and distributed generation models. They must also implement "no regrets" investments in infrastructure that support universal access and encourage the adoption of energy-efficiency technologies.

The Role of Regulators

Regulators must ensure a level playing field for all technologies, including renewables, by recognizing the full value and cost of each. They should focus on removing financial and regulatory barriers, ensuring that the power value chain operates efficiently and that investors are not left with stranded assets.

The Role of Businesses and Investors

Businesses and investors need to engage in effective public-private partnerships, create a favorable investment environment, and reduce the cost of capital. They should also invest in education and R&D to address knowledge and human capital gaps in the energy sector.

Key Information

Investment Trends

• Non-OECD investment in electricity is expected to rise from $240 billion annually to $495 billion annually by 2040, a 100% increase.
• Transmission and distribution (T&D) investments in non-OECD markets will reach $5.8 trillion, compared to $2.5 trillion in OECD countries.
• Fossil fuel generation will still be a major part of investment in non-OECD countries, at about $2.1 trillion from 2015 to 2040, while non-hydro renewables will total $2.9 trillion in non-OECD countries, about 10% higher than in OECD countries.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Fast-growing economies have mixed success in attracting private capital, with concerns over policy transparency and reliability.
• The private sector is expected to play a larger role in the future, with India's private sector share of capacity increasing from 13% in 2007 to 43% in 2017.
• The shift from importing commodities to importing capital is evident, with a focus on renewable energy and smart grid technologies.

Best Practices

• Mexico has improved electricity prices by 33% through investments in gas and efficient generation.
• Indonesia uses a mix of large centralized and smaller distributed power solutions to address electrification challenges.
• China has implemented an integrated energy strategy, leading to 100% electricity access by 2012 and significant improvements in supply quality.
• Brazil's "Light for All" program successfully expanded grid access, connecting 3 million households and increasing rural connection rates from 73% in 2002 to 97% in 2012.

Conclusion

The report highlights the importance of a holistic and integrated approach to energy policy, emphasizing the need for collaboration between policy-makers, regulators, and the private sector. It serves as a guide for fast-growing economies to attract necessary investments, improve energy systems, and achieve sustainable development. The focus on renewable energy, efficient infrastructure, and public-private partnerships is central to the recommendations, which aim to ensure affordability, reliability, and sustainability in the electricity sector.