20170510-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_14页_842kb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 10 May 2017

Core Content

This document provides a comprehensive analysis of the regional market performance and company updates for the week of 10 May 2017, with a focus on China and Indonesia. It includes key market indices, corporate events, sector updates, company results, and valuation insights.

Key Indices

Index	Previous Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	20975.8	(0.2)	0.1	1.5	6.1
S&P 500	2396.9	(0.1)	0.2	1.7	7.1
FTSE 100	7342.2	0.6	1.3	(0.1)	2.8
AS30	5874.5	(0.4)	(1.6)	(1.2)	2.7
CSI 300	3352.5	(0.2)	(2.2)	(4.4)	1.3
FSSTI	3250.0	0.4	1.2	2.2	12.8
HSCEI	10129.0	1.5	(0.9)	(1.2)	7.8
HSI	24889.0	1.3	1.1	2.6	13.1
JCI	5697.1	(0.2)	0.4	0.9	7.6
KLCI	1766.6	(0.1)	(0.7)	1.6	7.6
KOSPI	2292.8	2.3	3.8	6.6	13.1
Nikkei 225	19843.0	(0.3)	3.1	5.6	3.8
SET	1560.3	(0.5)	(0.2)	(1.3)	1.1
TWSE	9915.5	(0.2)	(0.3)	0.3	7.2
BDI	1007	0.6	(6.2)	(17.7)	4.8
CPO (RM/ml)	2777	2.1	5.6	(3.4)	(13.2)
Brent Crude (US$/bbl)	49	(1.2)	(3.4)	(11.8)	(14.2)

Sector Update - China Property

Home Sales Drop: Home sales GFA dropped 3.7% week-over-week and 17.6% year-over-year.
Land Cost Increase: Land cost rose 10% month-over-month in tier-1 cities, reaching Rmb25,907/sqm, the highest since Sep 16.
HPR Tightening: More tightening measures in the land market and HPR (Home Purchase Restriction) are expected to continue, affecting sales growth.
Mortgage Rates: The average first-home mortgage rate rose to 4.52%, with more cities reducing the mortgage discount.
Sales Recovery: Sales recovery for developers is expected to take longer due to lack of new products and intense competition.
Valuation: The sector is currently trading at 7.6x 2017F PE, or 35.9% discount to RNAV, and is 0.2SD below historical mean. Maintain UNDERWEIGHT.

Top Picks

BUY

Alibaba (BABA US): Target price HK$130.00, Potential upside 8.3%
Beijing Ent. Water (371 HK): Target price HK$7.60, Potential upside 28.8%
Indosat (ISAT IJ): Target price Rp7,900, Potential upside 10.5%
Tiga Pilar (AISA IJ): Target price Rp2,550, Potential upside 11.8%
V.S. Industry (VSI MK): Target price US$2.20, Potential upside 9.5%
OCBC (OCBC SP): Target price US$10.75, Potential upside 2.8%
Bangkok Dusit (BDMS TB): Target price US$27.00, Potential upside 31.7%
Siam Cement (SCC TB): Target price US$600.00, Potential upside 15.4%

SELL

Great Wall Motor (2333 HK): Target price HK$6.00, Potential downside 25.9%
MGM China (2282 HK): Target price HK$15.00, Potential downside 12.9%
Hartalega (HART MK): Target price MK$4.07, Potential downside 24.5%

Company Results

Uni-President China (220 HK)

1Q17 Earnings Slump: Net profit slumped by 60% yoy to Rmb174m, primarily due to the absence of JML Beverage Group's contribution and lower sales in the beverage segment.
Sales Recovery: Expected to be slow due to lack of new product launches and shorter product life cycles.
Earnings Revision: Revised down 2017 and 2018 net profit forecasts by 21% and 16% respectively.
Target Price: Reduced from HK$4.60 to HK$4.35, based on 24x 2017F PE.

Key Financials - Uni-President China

Metric	2015	2016	2017F	2018F	2019F
Net Turnover (Rmbm)	22,102	20,986	20,685	21,279	22,103
EBITDA (Rmbm)	2,435	2,395	1,905	2,040	2,220
Operating Profit (Rmbm)	1,031	963	898	993	1,136
Net Profit (Rmbm)	834	607	691	798	924
EPS (Fen)	19.3	14.1	16.0	18.5	21.4
PE (x)	24.4	33.5	29.4	25.5	22.0
P/B (x)	1.5	1.4	1.3	1.3	1.2
RNAV/Share (HK$)	11.92	10.23	32.65	33.65	32.73
Current Discount to RNAV (%)	(44.5)	(63.1)	(36.8)	(34.5)	(35.9)
Net Debt/Equity (%)	11.5	1.1	(2.4)	(4.7)	(7.8)

Corporate Events

Tea Session with Health Mgm Int'l (Singapore, 12 May)
Roadshow with Q Technology Group (Hong Kong, 12 May)
Analyst Presentation on M'sia Outlook and Strategy (Hong Kong, 17 May)
Roadshow with IGG Inc (Taipei, 18 May)
Site visit to Fosun Pharma Group and Shanghai Pharma Holding (Shanghai, 18-19 May)
Roadshow with Petronas Dagangan Bhd (Hong Kong, 23 May)
Analyst Marketing on China Internet Sector (Hong Kong, Singapore, Kuala Lumpur, 22-26 May)
Roadshow with Singtel (Canada, 26 May)
Roadshow with Tongda Group Holdings (Hong Kong, 1 Jun)
Roadshow with PT Siloam Int'l Hospital (Canada, 5-16 Jun)
Lunaroon with United Overseas Bank (Singapore, 3 Jul)
Roadshow with Top Glove Corporation (US/Canada, 5-12 Sep)

Conclusion

The document highlights the ongoing challenges in the Chinese property sector, including a drop in home sales, continued tightening of HPR, and rising land costs. It also discusses the financial performance and future outlook of Uni-President China, maintaining a SELL recommendation due to weak growth prospects and high valuation. Key indices show mixed performance, with some markets experiencing growth and others facing declines. Corporate events are scheduled across multiple regions, indicating active engagement and market activity.

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