20160505-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_14页_916kb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 05 May 2016
Core Content Overview
This document provides a comprehensive summary of market updates and investment insights for the property sector in China, as well as highlights from Malaysia and Singapore, along with key indices and company-specific analyses.
Key Indices Performance
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17651.3 | -0.6 | -2.2 | -0.5 | 1.3 |
| S&P 500 | 2051.1 | -0.6 | -2.1 | -0.7 | 0.4 |
| FTSE 100 | 6112.0 | -1.2 | -2.7 | -0.9 | -2.1 |
| AS30 | 5335.6 | -1.5 | 1.6 | 6.7 | -0.2 |
| CSI 300 | 3209.5 | -0.1 | 1.0 | -1.7 | -14.0 |
| FSSTI | 2773.1 | -1.4 | -4.2 | -1.0 | -3.8 |
| HSI | 20525.8 | -0.7 | -4.1 | 1.7 | -6.3 |
| KLCI | 1657.6 | -0.4 | -2.1 | -3.5 | -2.1 |
| KOSPI | 1976.7 | -0.5 | -1.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 |
| Nikkei 225 | 16147.4 | -3.1 | -8.1 | -0.1 | -15.2 |
| SET | 1390.7 | -0.5 | -2.0 | 1.2 | 8.0 |
| TWSE | 8185.5 | -1.3 | -4.6 | -5.5 | -1.8 |
| BDI | 652 | -4.4 | -7.4 | 38.4 | 36.4 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2541 | -1.0 | -3.8 | -6.2 | 15.5 |
| Brent Crude | 45 | -0.8 | -5.4 | 18.4 | 19.7 |
Sector Update: China Property
- Home Sales: April sales growth was satisfactory, with a 6.3% month-on-month decline in the 30 monitored cities, but still a 57.2% year-on-year increase. Tier-2 cities outperformed.
- ASP Growth: The average primary market price in 100 cities rose 1.45% mom and 8.98% yoy. Core tier-2 cities showed strong price growth.
- Investment Strategy: Quality developers with significant exposure to tier-2 cities are top picks. The sector is trading at a 42.7% discount to 2016 RNAV.
- Land Market: Land sales in tier-2 cities grew significantly (41.9% mom and 248.3% yoy), indicating an overheated market.
Top Picks
| Company | Ticker | Recommendation | Target Price (HK$) | Upside (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Air China | 753 HK | BUY | 10.20 | 77.7 |
| Ping An | 2318 HK | BUY | 45.00 | 25.0 |
| Bank BJB | BJB R | BUY | 1,170.00 | 24.5 |
| Gamuda | GAM MK | BUY | 5.55 | 16.8 |
| WCT Holdings | WCTHG MK | BUY | 2.05 | 22.8 |
| City | CIT SP | BUY | 10.86 | 31.5 |
| DBS | DBS SP | BUY | 19.25 | 25.4 |
| Siam Cement | SCC TB | BUY | 630.00 | 30.7 |
| BBMG Corporation | 2009 HK | BUY | 8.84 | 65.2 |
Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP Growth (yoy) | 2015 | 2016F | 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 2.4 | 2.5 | 3.0 | |
| Euro Zone | 1.6 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |
| Japan | 0.5 | 1.0 | 1.0 | |
| Singapore | 2.0 | 2.7 | 3.0 | |
| Malaysia | 5.0 | 4.2 | 5.0 | |
| Thailand | 2.8 | 3.2 | 3.6 | |
| Indonesia | 4.8 | 5.0 | 5.5 | |
| Hong Kong | 2.4 | 2.1 | 1.8 | |
| China | 6.9 | 6.5 | 6.2 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Shengjing Bank Roadshow | Europe | 6 May | 10 May |
| Construction and Transport Sector Analyst Presentation | UK/Europe | 18 May | 25 May |
| China Financial Sector Analyst Presentation | New York/Boston | 23 May | 25 May |
| Dawnrays Phama Roadshow | Singapore | 24 May | 24 May |
| Valuetronics Roadshow | Singapore | 26 May | 26 May |
| China Financial Sector Analyst Presentation | Canada | 26 May | 28 May |
BBMG Corporation (2009 HK)
- Cement Price Hike: A notable Rmb50/tonne increase in cement prices is expected to lift BBMG's gross profit per tonne, potentially restoring it to 2014 levels.
- Earnings Forecast: Earnings estimates are raised by 10-22% for 2016 and 2017 due to the price hike.
- Target Price: Maintained at HK$8.84, reflecting improved earnings growth.
- Performance: The company is trading at a 71.9% discount to its RNAV.
- Sales Growth: Contracted property sales are expected to grow by 20% in 2016, with a target of Rmb17.4b.
- Financials: FY16E net profit is estimated at Rmb2,426.6m, with a 22% revision upwards due to the price hike.
Valuation and Recommendation
- Valuation Methodology: The SOTP method is used, with a 55% discount to property RNAV.
- Cement Business: Valued at 8x 2016F EV/EBITDA.
- Modern Building Materials: Valued at 8x 2016F EV/EBITDA.
- Fair Value: HK$8.84 based on adjusted fair value calculations.
Analysts
- David Yang: +8621 5404 7225 ext 801 | davidyang@uobkayhian.com
- Johnson Hu: +8621 5404 7225 ext 809 | johnsonhu@uobkayhian.com
- Cynthia Wang: +8621 5404 7225 ext 858 | cynthiawang@uobkayhian.com
Conclusion
The report emphasizes the positive outlook for the China property sector, particularly in core tier-2 cities, driven by improved cement prices and continued liquidity support. BBMG Corporation is highlighted as a top pick, with a significant price increase and improved financial outlook. The market is expected to see continued growth in the property and cement sectors, with a focus on quality developers and strategic regional plays.
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