20140717-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_14页_693kb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary - 17 July 2014

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive market analysis of the property and REITs sector in the ASEAN region, focusing on Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, and Singapore, along with China's 2Q14 economic data and cement sector updates for Indonesia. It includes key indices, top picks, corporate events, and market assumptions.

Main Points

China's 2Q14 GDP Data

Real GDP growth rose to 7.5% yoy in 2Q14, up from 7.4% yoy in 1Q14.
The growth was 2.0% qoq, exceeding the consensus forecast of 1.8% qoq and 1.4% qoq in 1Q14.
Urban fixed asset investment (FAI) growth weakened to 17.0% yoy, down from 17.6% yoy in 1Q14.
Retail sales and exports grew faster in 2Q14 at 12.3% yoy and 5.0% yoy, respectively.
M2 money supply increased to 14.7% yoy, reflecting a reversal of monetary tightening.
The document expects further stimulus in 2H14 to ensure a sustainable recovery.

ASEAN Property Outlook

Indonesia: Jokowi's potential election is expected to have a positive impact on the property sector. The cement sector is upgraded to OVERWEIGHT due to stronger economic growth and increased government infrastructure spending. Indocement is highlighted as the top pick with a target price of Rp30,275.
Thailand: The NCPO is focusing on infrastructure investment, which is expected to boost the property sector. Sino-Thai Engineering (STEC) is upgraded to BUY with a target price of Bt29.00, reflecting a return to growth starting in 2015.
Malaysia: Property curbs are beginning to affect the market, especially foreign investors due to revised RPGT rates and a 2% levy in Johor. Tenaga Nasional Berhad (TNB) is noted as a BUY with a target price of RM14.00, as earnings are expected to normalize in FY15.
Singapore: Policy relaxation is expected in 2015, but the government is not easing measures yet. Keppel Land and CapitaCommercial are top picks with BUY ratings.

Key Indices

DJIA: 17138.2 (1D: +0.5%, 1W: +0.9%, 1M: +2.1%, YTD: +3.4%)
S&P 500: 1981.6 (1D: +0.4%, 1W: +0.4%, 1M: +2.3%, YTD: +7.2%)
FTSE 100: 6784.7 (1D: +1.1%, 1W: +1.0%, 1M: +0.4%, YTD: +0.5%)
AS30: 5504.5 (1D: +0.2%, 1W: +1.1%, 1M: +2.3%, YTD: +2.8%)
CSI 300: 2170.9 (1D: -0.2%, 1M: +0.1%, YTD: -6.8%)
HSCEI: 10475.4 (1D: -0.1%, 1W: +1.3%, 1M: +0.1%, YTD: -3.2%)
HSI: 23523.3 (1D: +0.3%, 1W: +1.5%, 1M: +1.4%, YTD: +0.9%)
JCI: 5113.9 (1D: +0.9%, 1W: +1.8%, 1M: +4.2%, YTD: +19.6%)
KLCI: 1886.7 (1D: +0.1%, 1W: -0.2%, 1M: +0.6%, YTD: +1.1%)
KOSPI: 2013.5 (1D: 0.0%, 1W: +0.6%, 1M: +0.6%, YTD: +0.1%)
Nikkei 225: 15379.3 (1D: -0.1%, 1W: +0.5%, 1M: +2.7%, YTD: -5.6%)
SET: 1530.4 (1D: +0.4%, 1W: +1.5%, 1M: +4.0%, YTD: +17.8%)
TWSE: 9484.7 (1D: -0.9%, 1W: -0.1%, 1M: +2.6%, YTD: +10.1%)
BDI: 755 (1M: -14.2%, YTD: -66.8%)
CPO (RM/mt): 2378 (1M: -2.4%, YTD: -7.6%)
Nymex Crude (US$/bbl): 101 (1M: -4.6%, YTD: +3.1%)

Key Sector Updates

Indonesia Cement Sector

1H14 cement sales volume increased by 3.7% yoy to 29mt, aligning with the 2014 forecast of 62mt.
Java and Sulawesi saw the highest sales growth at 6% yoy.
Bulk sales outperformed bag sales, with 6.3% yoy growth vs. 3.4% yoy.
SMGR improved its market share to 44%, while INTP reached 30.9%.

Top Picks

BUY Recommendations

CNBM (3323 HK): Price: 7.80, Target Price: 9.82, Upside: 25.9%
ICBC (1398 HK): Price: 4.98, Target Price: 6.15, Upside: 23.5%
Bank Mandiri (BMRI LJ): Price: 10,600.00, Target Price: 10,800.00, Upside: 1.9%
Gamuda (GAM MK): Price: 4.75, Target Price: 5.60, Upside: 17.9%
DBS (DBS SP): Price: 17.20, Target Price: 22.60, Upside: 31.4%
Pacific Radiance (PACRA SP): Price: 1.46, Target Price: 1.55, Upside: 6.5%
Bangkok Bank (BBL TB): Price: 197.50, Target Price: 237.00, Upside: 20.0%
PTT (PTT TB): Price: 324.00, Target Price: 361.00, Upside: 11.4%

SELL Recommendation

UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Price: 11.60, Target Price: 10.00, Downside: 13.8%

Regional Property & REITs Ratings

Country	Rating
Singapore	OVERWEIGHT
Indonesia	OVERWEIGHT
Thailand	OVERWEIGHT
Malaysia	MARKET WEIGHT

Analysts

Vikrant Pandey: +65 6590 6623, vikrant@uobkayhian.com
Marwan Halim: +6221 2993 3805, marwanhalim@uobkayhian.com
Pornthipa Rayabsangduan: +662 659 8302, pornthipa@uobkayhian.co.th
Terence Khi: +65 6590 6614, terencekhi@uobkayhian.com
Malaysia Research Team: +603 2147 1988, research@uobkayhian.com

Corporate Events

Singapore 2H14 Strategy & Mid-Cap Outlook: 16–17 Jul, Kuala Lumpur
Tonly Electronics Holdings Luncheon: 18 Jul, Hong Kong
Coslight Technology International Luncheon: 25 Jul, Hong Kong
Thailand 2H14 Market Strategy & Property Sector Analyst Presentation: 30 Jul, Singapore; 4–5 Aug, Kuala Lumpur

Conclusion

The document highlights a mild economic recovery in China, with expectations of further stimulus in the second half of 2014. In ASEAN, the property and cement sectors are seen as key beneficiaries, with Indonesia and Thailand showing positive trends due to government policies and infrastructure investments. Malaysia and Singapore are noted for policy impacts and potential market adjustments, respectively. The property sector is generally rated OVERWEIGHT, with cement stocks also showing strong performance and outlook.