2019全球医疗健康行业展望英文版_41页_4mb

Deloitte 2019 Global Health Care Outlook Summary

Core Content

The 2019 Deloitte Global Health Care Outlook highlights the evolving landscape of the global health care sector, emphasizing the need for innovation, financial sustainability, and a shift from reactive to proactive care models. The report outlines key trends, challenges, and opportunities across various regions and stakeholders, including governments, providers, payers, and consumers.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Global Health Care Trends

• Health Care Spending Growth: Global health care spending is projected to grow at an annual rate of 5.4% from 2017 to 2022, reaching USD $10.059 trillion.
• Per-Person Spending Variance: Spending varies significantly, from USD $11,674 in the U.S. to USD $54 in Pakistan.
• Health Care Performance: The U.S. ranks last among 10 developed countries in overall health care performance, despite higher per capita spending.
• Life Expectancy Increase: Life expectancy is projected to rise from 73.5 years in 2018 to 74.4 years in 2022, with over 668 million people aged over 65 globally.
• Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs): NCDs account for 71% of global deaths in 2016, rising to over 80% in developed markets, driven by urbanization, sedentary lifestyles, and obesity.

2. Health Care Challenges

• Financial Sustainability: Rising costs and uncertain economic conditions push health systems to find new ways to manage expenses and improve efficiency.
• Public Health System Pressures: Public health systems in many countries, including the UK and Australia, face budget shortfalls and inefficiencies.
• Private Sector Challenges: Private hospitals and insurers are encountering cost pressures, with some private insurance policies declining due to affordability concerns.
• Regulatory and Operational Constraints: Governments and health systems must balance cost control, incentives, and the impact of disruptive market entrants.

3. Strategies for the Future

• Digital Innovation and Transformation: The integration of digital technologies is expected to enhance care delivery, improve data sharing, and increase efficiency.
• New Care Delivery Models: There is a growing emphasis on value-based care (VBC), outcomes-based reimbursement, and patient-centered models that focus on prevention and early intervention.
• Cross-Sector Collaboration: Stakeholders must work together with other sectors (e.g., employment, education) and new players (e.g., technology, retail) to address social determinants of health and improve system sustainability.
• Smart Health Communities: A model where all care delivery stakeholders communicate effectively, use technology for accurate diagnosis, and deliver care in the right place and time is proposed as a way to improve quality, efficiency, and affordability.

4. Market and Industry Dynamics

• Disruptive Entrants: Technology companies like Apple, Google, and Alphabet are entering the health care space, offering innovative tools for data sharing, diagnostics, and AI-driven care.
• Mergers and Acquisitions (M&A): Organizations are increasingly turning to M&A to build scale, improve capabilities, and integrate across sectors. Examples include IHH Healthcare's acquisition of Fortis Healthcare and Cigna's purchase of Express Scripts.
• E-Commerce and Health Care Integration: E-commerce giants like Amazon and Alibaba are entering the health care market, acquiring pharmacy and health care services companies to expand their reach and influence.
• Vertical Integration: The shift toward vertical integration is driven by the need to find alternative revenue streams and improve service delivery models.

5. Stakeholder Considerations

• Value-Based Reimbursement: Transitioning from fee-for-service (FFS) to value-based care (VBC) is a key trend, especially in the U.S., with initiatives like MACRA promoting coordinated care and risk-sharing.
• Public-Private Partnerships: These are seen as a critical mechanism for improving financial sustainability, risk-sharing, and system performance.
• Data Interoperability and Security: As patients become more involved in their care, data sharing, security, and ownership will become more important.

6. Regional Outlook

• United States: Leading the shift toward VBC, with MACRA as a major driver. The report highlights the first year of payment adjustments under MIPS and the growth of AAPMs.
• United Kingdom: The NHS faces financial and operational challenges, including budget shortfalls and rising demand. Long-term transformation plans and integrated partnerships are being implemented.
• Asia and Africa: Countries like India, China, and South Africa are seeing increased investment in health care, with a focus on expanding coverage and improving access.
• Europe: A growing recognition of the need for value-based care, although adoption remains low.

Conclusion

The 2019 Deloitte Global Health Care Outlook underscores the necessity of a philosophical shift from a "sick care" to a "health care" model, emphasizing prevention, early intervention, and patient empowerment. The report suggests that the future of health care will be shaped by cross-sector collaboration, digital innovation, and new business models that improve access, affordability, and quality while maintaining financial sustainability.