2019全球医疗健康行业展望（英文版）_41页_4mb

Deloitte 2019 Global Health Care Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Deloitte 2019 Global Health Care Outlook outlines the evolving landscape of the global health care sector, emphasizing the need for innovation, financial sustainability, and improved access to affordable, high-quality care. It highlights the role of digital transformation, new business models, and cross-sector collaboration in addressing systemic challenges and shaping the future of health care.

Main Points and Key Information

1. Global Health Care Trends

• Rising Expenditures: Global health care spending is projected to increase at a 5.4% annual rate from 2017 to 2022, reaching USD $10.059 trillion.
• Per-Person Spending Variance: Spending varies significantly, from USD $11,674 in the U.S. to USD $54 in Pakistan in 2022.
• Health Care Quality: Despite higher spending, the U.S. ranks last in overall health care performance among developed countries, indicating a disconnect between cost and quality.
• Life Expectancy: Global life expectancy is expected to rise from 73.5 years in 2018 to 74.4 in 2022, with implications for health system capacity and aging populations.
• Communicable Diseases: Significant progress has been made in reducing deaths from diseases like HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, and malaria through improved access and treatment.

2. Non-Communicable Diseases (NCDs)

• NCDs caused 71% of global deaths in 2016, rising to over 80% in developed markets.
• Factors contributing to NCDs include urbanization, sedentary lifestyles, and rising obesity levels.

3. Environmental Impact on Health

• Ambient pollution was responsible for 4.2 million deaths in 2016, particularly in the Western Pacific region.
• In China, pollution control is a key focus of health policy, impacting GDP through reduced productivity and health costs.

4. Future of Health Care Delivery

• A shift from a "sick care" system to a "health care" system is necessary, emphasizing prevention, early intervention, and patient empowerment.
• Smart Health Communities: These are envisioned as collaborative ecosystems where appropriate care is delivered at the right time and place, supported by technology and efficient communication.

5. Consumer-Centric Transformation

• Consumers are becoming active participants in their health care, driving a shift from B2C to C2B models.
• Stakeholders must use digital technologies and personalized programs to improve the patient experience and ensure data interoperability, security, and ownership.

6. Financial Sustainability Challenges

• Health systems globally face rising costs and funding shortfalls, especially in public systems.
• The UK's NHS has seen a rise in budget deficits, with 44% of trusts still overspending in 2017-2018.
• In Australia, declining private insurance coverage is affecting private hospitals, prompting consolidation and efficiency measures.

7. Disruptive Market Entrants

• Technology companies like Apple and Google are disrupting health care through innovations such as diagnostic data integration and AI-driven disease management.
• Verily (Alphabet's health unit) is exploring partnerships and investments in health insurance and diagnostics.
• Retail and tech giants like Grab, Go-Jek, Amazon, and Alibaba are entering health care, offering new services and disrupting traditional delivery models.

8. Mergers, Acquisitions, and Partnerships

• Organizations are increasingly using M&A and partnerships to enhance capabilities and build scale.
• Examples include IHH Healthcare's acquisition of Fortis Healthcare, and the U.S. merger of Cigna and Express Scripts.
• E-commerce and tech firms are investing in health care, with Amazon acquiring PillPack and Alibaba investing in pharmaceutical companies.

9. Value-Based Care (VBC) Transition

• The shift from fee-for-service (FFS) to value-based care (VBC) is a major trend.
• MACRA (U.S.): Introduced MIPS and AAPM payment models to incentivize quality and cost efficiency.
• Global Adoption: VBC is gaining traction in Europe and Asia, though adoption remains slow in some regions.
• Australia's Pilot Programs: Initiatives like HealthLinks aim to test flexible funding models for better patient outcomes without increasing public costs.

10. Stakeholder Collaboration

• Success in the future health care system depends on collaboration between public and private stakeholders.
• New public-private partnership models are expected to emerge, promoting risk-sharing and sustainable financing of health care infrastructure.

Conclusion

The 2019 Deloitte Global Health Care Outlook underscores the need for a fundamental transformation in the health care sector. This transformation involves embracing digital innovation, shifting to value-based care, addressing social determinants of health, and fostering cross-sector collaboration. The future of health care is likely to be more consumer-driven, efficient, and sustainable, but achieving this will require systemic changes and active participation from all stakeholders.