2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Democratic_Republic_of_the_Congo_Joint_Staff_Advisory_Note_14页_413kb

Democratic Republic of the Congo: Joint Staff Advisory Note Summary

I. Overview

This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) evaluates the Democratic Republic of the Congo's (DRC) second Poverty Reduction and Growth Strategy Paper (PRSP-2), covering the years 2011–2015. The PRSP-2 follows the first PRSP (PRSP-1) from 2006–10, which focused on post-conflict recovery and improving living conditions.

• Key Shifts: The PRSP-2 shifts focus from post-conflict needs to sustainable development, emphasizing growth, employment, and climate change.
• Strategic Pillars: The strategy is built on four pillars: governance and peace consolidation, economic diversification, access to social services and human capital improvement, and environmental protection.
• Government Commitment: The current government has confirmed its commitment to the PRSP-2 and plans to continue its dissemination. The Government Action Plan (GAP) for 2012–2016 focuses on state modernization and quality of life improvement.
• Elections and Security: The 2011 elections were controversial, but the new government was able to restore security. Economic confidence indicators have gradually improved since January 2012.

II. Poverty and Gender Diagnostics

• Population Growth: The DRC's fertility rate is six children per woman, leading to a population growth rate of 2.7 percent annually.
• Poverty Measurement: No new data on money-metric poverty are available, making it difficult to assess the impact of macroeconomic growth on poverty. A new household survey was launched in June 2012, with results expected in early 2013.
• MDG Progress: The DRC is unlikely to meet any of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) by 2015. Education and health expenditures are largely covered by households and international partners, with the government contributing only 10 percent of health spending.
• Gender Issues: Gender inequality persists due to socio-cultural barriers and under-education. The PRSP-2 includes a comprehensive plan for gender equality, but the GAP does not prioritize it. Staff recommend accelerating gender equality, strengthening the Ministry of Gender, and improving women's employability in skilled jobs.

III. Implementation Progress and Reform Perspectives

A. Macroeconomic Performance

• Improvements: Macroeconomic management improved under PRSP-1, with real GDP growth averaging 5.6 percent from 2006–10, though not inclusive enough to reduce poverty.
• Challenges: The global financial crisis negatively impacted the DRC's terms of trade and external outlook. Staff encourage more ambitious fiscal and structural reforms, including improving governance in extractive industries and adopting the New York Convention and OHADA legal framework.
• Debt Management: The debt unit needs to improve data recording, reporting, and monitoring. The lack of transparency in SCCA disbursements risks further arrears.

B. Economic Growth and Employment-creating Sectors

• Agriculture: Staff support the PRSP-2's focus on increasing productivity and agribusiness. They recommend engaging CARG councils and promoting public-private partnerships.
• Forestry: Ambitious targets exist, but challenges include high transport costs and the need for sustainable charcoal production and improved cook stoves.
• Tourism: Rehabilitation of visitor infrastructure is timely, but the Congolese Nature Conservation Institute (ICCN) must be reformed to attract private sector partners.
• Mining: To boost mining output and fiscal revenues, the government needs to improve taxation, business climate, and governance. Accession to EITI and OHADA is encouraged.
• Oil and Gas: Significant potential exists, but institutional and policy reforms are needed to attract investment and maximize government revenue while protecting the environment.
• Manufacturing: Infrastructure recovery is crucial. While the PRSP-2 focuses on large-scale initiatives, it overlooks smaller-scale, widespread efforts in the informal sector.
• Services: Growth opportunities exist in sectors like construction and trade, but the regulatory environment and skill shortages remain key constraints.

C. Governance and State Effectiveness

• Public Sector Reforms: The DRC has made progress in economic governance, including new laws on public financial management and the introduction of VAT. However, transparency and effective resource management are still needed.
• Budget Process: Weak and not aligned with national strategy. Staff recommend promoting citizen participation in budgeting, drawing on successful pilot programs.
• Procurement Code: The new code adopted in 2010 remains under-implemented. Staff urge strengthening its implementation and ensuring the complaints resolution committee is operational.
• Public Administration: Overstaffed and aging. The PRSP-2 and GAP outline plans for modernization, including a retirement system and improved human resources management.
• Decentralization: Staff recommend prioritizing this agenda, including finalizing provincial laws and implementing a revenue sharing mechanism.
• Regulatory Environment: Staff suggest streamlining business start-up processes, construction licenses, and property transfer procedures to improve the business climate.
• Financial Sector: Ambitious reforms are underway, but require strong political commitment. Trade facilitation has improved, particularly at border crossings with strong provincial support.

D. Infrastructure

• Importance: Infrastructure is critical for economic growth and diversification, particularly in transport, power, and communications.
• Recommendations: Combined investment in transport, energy, and telecommunications is encouraged. Examples include the Kinshasa-Kisangani fluvial corridor and the Congo Ocean corridor project. A civil aviation action plan is also recommended.

E. Strengthening Human Capital

Education

• Strategic Framework: The PRSP-2 includes a comprehensive education strategy aligned with the GAP.
• Primary Education: The fee-free policy is welcomed as it aims to improve equal access.
• Higher Education: Staff recommend improving quality assurance and aligning programs with economic development needs, such as through international university networks.

Health

• Primary Health Care: The PRSP-2 emphasizes primary health care and demographic issues.
• Funding Constraints: Health sector spending has declined, limiting progress toward most MDGs. The 80% vaccination target is the only likely achievable goal.
• Recommendations: The government should address the quality of health worker education and strengthen the drug supply chain.

IV. Key Recommendations

• Enhance Governance and Transparency: Particularly in extractive industries, SOEs, and public financial management.
• Strengthen Fiscal Reforms: Improve tax collection, reduce evasion, and ensure revenue projections are realistic.
• Promote Sustainable Development: Focus on inclusive growth, employment creation, and climate change mitigation.
• Improve Infrastructure Investment: Encourage combined investment in transport, energy, and telecommunications.
• Enhance Human Capital Development: Implement clear strategies for education and health, with a focus on quality and relevance to economic needs.