2011年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Mauritania_Joint_Staff_Advisory_Note_of_the_Poverty_Reduction_Strategy_Paper_12页_375kb

Summary of the Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-3) for Mauritania

Core Content

The Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) on Mauritania's Third Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (PRSP-3) was prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the International Development Association (IDA) in June 2011. It serves as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the government and reflects the views of the staff team, not necessarily those of the government or the IMF Executive Board. The document highlights the challenges and opportunities in implementing PRSP-3, which is designed to guide Mauritania's efforts to reduce poverty and promote sustainable growth over the period 2011–2015.

Main Objectives of PRSP-3

PRSP-3 retains the five principal objectives from its predecessors:

1. Accelerating economic growth and maintaining macroeconomic stability.
2. Making growth more inclusive.
3. Improving the potential of the Mauritanian people and their access to basic social services.
4. Enhancing governance and institutional development.
5. Improving planning, monitoring, and evaluation systems.

The last objective was strengthened due to the poor implementation and weak monitoring frameworks in PRSP-1 and PRSP-2.

Key Background and Context

• The drafting of PRSP-3 was influenced by several key events: democratic elections in 2009, the global financial crisis, downward revisions of oil estimates, and rising commodity prices.
• The government conducted a comprehensive review of past PRSPs, identifying shortcomings and obstacles to implementation.
• Based on these lessons, PRSP-3 includes more realistic growth targets, a focus on agricultural development for inclusive growth, and a robust monitoring and evaluation framework.

Poverty Diagnosis and MDGs

• Mauritania's economy is dualistic, with a capital-intensive export sector and a low-productivity agricultural sector.
• Between 2004 and 2008, poverty incidence decreased from 47% to 42%, but progress remains modest and insufficient to meet the 2015 MDG target of 25%.
• Rural poverty is higher than urban poverty (60% vs. 21% in 2008), and it has worsened over the past four years.
• MDG 4 and 5 (child and maternal health) are not expected to be achieved under current policies, necessitating a renewed focus on inclusive growth and efficient use of public resources, especially in the health sector.

Strategic Vision and Implementation

A. Macroeconomic Framework

• PRSP-3 aims for 5.8% average annual GDP growth, inflation below 5%, budget deficit below 2.6% of non-oil GDP, and international reserves close to 4 months of imports by 2015.
• Fiscal consolidation is key, with projected 14% annual increase in revenue and 3.1% annual growth in subsidies and public wages.
• The staffs recommend sensitivity analyses in annual progress reports to address external shocks and prudent fiscal policy.

B. Making Growth More Inclusive

• The private sector is seen as crucial for sustained and inclusive growth.
• Weaknesses in infrastructure, financial access, workforce training, and regulatory environment hinder private sector development.
• The government plans to improve the business environment and regulatory framework, including reforms to tax and customs procedures, procurement laws, and labor regulations.
• Agricultural productivity is a key focus, with plans to develop irrigation, improve distribution networks, and establish public-private partnerships.
• Social protection and targeted safety nets are emphasized, particularly for migrant workers and the informal sector.

C. Improving Access to Basic Social Services

• Health and education are prioritized as key drivers of development.
• The staffs support efforts to close educational disparities and improve the quality of education.
• For health, recommendations include enhancing midwife and nurse training, better incentives for health workers, improved rural outreach, and demand-side incentives such as vouchers for prenatal care.

D. Enhancing Governance and Institutional Development

• The government aims to strengthen governance across multiple dimensions, including political, economic, and environmental.
• The graduation from EITI candidate to compliant country in 2011 is welcomed.
• Statistical capacity is emphasized, with plans to update national strategies for statistics and conduct surveys to improve data collection.

E. Strengthening Planning, Monitoring and Evaluation Systems

• The previous PRSPs were not fully implemented or satisfactorily monitored.
• PRSP-3 introduces streamlined indicators and a clear methodology for selecting them.
• The staffs recommend computerized systems for tracking investment projects and close coordination between sectors to improve budget execution and annual progress reporting.

Risks and Issues for Discussion

• Exogenous shocks (e.g., terms of trade volatility, global financial crisis, natural disasters) pose significant risks to implementation.
• Donor financing and internal capacity are critical challenges.
• Political instability and social unrest remain potential risks, especially given the high unemployment rate (51% among 15–24-year-olds).
• The staffs encourage the legal anchoring of PRSP-3 to ensure ministerial accountability and institutional cooperation.
• Social consensus and civic engagement are essential for successful implementation and donor coordination.

Conclusion

PRSP-3 is a comprehensive and ambitious strategy aimed at reducing poverty and promoting inclusive growth. Its success depends on strong political commitment, effective implementation, and robust monitoring. The staffs support the government's approach and urge continued stakeholder engagement, reforms in the private sector and agriculture, and improved coordination with donors and international partners.