2013年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Union_of_the_Comoros_Poverty_Reduction_Strategy_Paper_Progress_Report_Joint_Staff_Advisory_Note_12页_550kb

Summary of the Union of the Comoros Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper—Progress Report—Joint Staff Advisory Note

Overview

This document is a Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) prepared by the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and International Development Association (IDA) to review the second Annual Progress Report (APR) on the implementation of the Comoros Poverty Reduction Strategy (CPRS). The CPRS was approved in September 2009 and outlines a five-year strategy (2010–2014). It is structured around six pillars, including economic stabilization, sector development, governance, health, education, and environmental sustainability.

The report acknowledges that while some progress was made—such as a timid economic recovery, improved political governance, and reduced maternal and infant mortality rates—the achievements were modest compared to the strategy's ambitious goals. Key challenges include limited coordination among government entities, weak technical expertise, and inadequate statistical systems for monitoring progress.

Macroeconomic and Growth Framework

• Economic performance in 2011 was moderately positive, with real GDP growth at 2.2%.
• Agriculture and remittances were key contributors to growth.
• Inflation reached 7% in 2011 due to international fuel and food price pressures.
• The fiscal position improved significantly, with a primary budget surplus of 1.6% of GDP in 2011 and an expected surplus of 2.2% in 2012.
• Debt sustainability is emphasized, with the debt-to-export ratio dropping from 343% to 78.9% by 2012.
• Staffs recommend continued focus on fiscal discipline, tax administration efficiency, and debt management strategies.

Poverty Reduction

Pillar I: Stabilize the Economy and Lay the Groundwork for Strong and Equitable Growth

• Mixed progress in strengthening public financial management (PFM), with delays in early 2011 due to political transition.
• Reforms were rekindled in 2011, including the adoption of a new General Tax Code, completion of a civil service census, and approval of new ministry personnel frameworks.
• Staffs recommend strengthening PFM systems, ensuring the new tax administration becomes operational, and implementing new payroll systems to avoid arrears.

Pillar II: Develop Key Productive Sectors

• Improving the investment climate remains critical, with efforts to reduce transaction costs and streamline procedures.
• Infrastructure bottlenecks, especially in the energy sector, are major constraints.
• Private sector development is encouraged to promote growth and poverty reduction.
• The restructuring of MA-MWE and SCH should be expedited, with a focus on international management contracts.

Pillar III: Strengthen Governance and Social Cohesion

• Political instability and historical power struggles between islands remain significant challenges.
• Anti-corruption measures have advanced, including the establishment of the National Anticorruption Commission and the national anti-corruption strategy.
• Decentralization and consensus building are emphasized to enhance governance and social cohesion.
• Civil service transparency and accountability are recommended, with the civil service census and computerized wage system (GISE) being key tools.

Pillar IV: Improve the Health Status of the General Public

• Progress in health sector planning was noted, especially in malaria and tuberculosis control.
• Donor coordination is crucial, as they provide over 80% of health funding.
• Data collection and reporting need improvement to better monitor health outcomes.
• The Demographic Health Survey and MICS 2012 are ongoing and expected to provide more insights.

Pillar V: Develop Human Capital

• Education reforms have been initiated, including the development of a country status report (CSR) and financing model.
• Gender parity in education has improved, with preschool enrollment tripling.
• Primary school enrollment and completion rates have increased, but secondary education has declined.
• Learning quality is now the top priority, with recommendations to improve teacher supervision and student assessment frameworks.

Pillar VI: Foster Environmental Sustainability and Civilian Security

• Environmental and security challenges remain significant, with waste management and climate adaptation highlighted.
• Multi-sector coordination is needed to enhance the Environment Department's capacity.
• Civilian security from natural disasters is better addressed, but more attention is required for Moroni.

Implementation, Monitoring, and Evaluation

• The APR process involved stakeholder consultations, including island-level committees and sectoral technical groups.
• Monitoring and evaluation systems are underdeveloped, with a lack of reliable data and statistical capacity.
• Data collection and reporting are encouraged to be more comprehensive and timely.
• A national poverty survey was launched in 2013 to better understand poverty trends.

Risks and Conclusions

• The second APR provides a candid assessment of progress and challenges.
• Macro- and microeconomic stability has been maintained despite external pressures.
• Structural reforms are lagging due to political resistance and capacity constraints.
• Continued donor support is essential to address infrastructure and capacity gaps.
• Inter-island cohesion and strict adherence to reform agendas are critical for future success.

Issues for Discussion

• Whether the Executive Directors agree that the Comorian authorities have made reasonable progress in implementing the CPRS under difficult circumstances.
• Whether they agree that the government is taking appropriate actions to improve CPRS implementation.