2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kyrgyz_Republic_Joint_Staff_Advisory_Note_on_the_Poverty_Reduction_Strategy_Paper_11页_299kb

Kyrgyz Republic: Joint Staff Advisory Note on the Poverty Reduction Strategy Paper (2012–14)

Core Content Overview

This Joint Staff Advisory Note (JSAN) is prepared by the IMF and IDA staff as background for the periodic consultation with the Kyrgyz Republic. It outlines the Medium-Term Development Program (MTDP), which spans 2012–2014, and evaluates its strategic objectives, policy measures, and implementation challenges. The note was finalized on November 14, 2012 and reflects the IMF staff's views, not necessarily the government’s or the Executive Board’s.

Main Focus of the MTDP

The MTDP aims to:

• Raise living standards and reduce poverty through economic growth, improved business environment, and governance reforms.
• Achieve macroeconomic stability by targeting 7.5% average real GDP growth, single-digit inflation, and maintaining foreign reserves at 4 months of imports.
• Consolidate public finances by halving the overall budget deficit by 2014.
• Strengthen the investment climate and improve public asset management.
• Promote employment and support the private sector.

Key Challenges and Concerns

Poverty Trends and Diagnosis

• Poverty incidence increased from 32% in 2008 to 36.8% in 2011, reversing earlier declines.
• The strategy needs a clearer link between its policies and poverty reduction objectives.
• Analysis of spatial, demographic, and gender-based variations in poverty is recommended to better target reforms.
• Household budget surveys are a valuable tool for identifying poverty determinants and monitoring progress.

Macroeconomic Objectives and Risks

• The MTDP's growth targets are ambitious and rely heavily on foreign direct investment (FDI), which may be overestimated.
• The external environment poses significant risks, including terms-of-trade shocks and global economic instability, which are not adequately addressed.
• Debt sustainability is a key concern, with the need for feasibility assessment of both domestic and external financing.
• The link between the budget and national projects is missing, with many projects requiring public funding but not fully accounted for in the MTDP.

Governance and Transparency

• The MTDP emphasizes governance reform as a top priority, especially in the context of political unrest and ethnic tensions.
• Anti-corruption measures are progressing, with a new law passed in August 2012 and an action plan approved in May 2012.
• Civil service reform is underway, but more emphasis is needed on internal career progression and professional development.
• Public financial management (PFM) reforms are included but incomplete, requiring more attention to budget planning, procurement transparency, and accountability.

Sector-Specific Issues

Energy Sector

• The energy sector is a key priority, but the MTDP lacks clarity on goals, timelines, and prioritization.
• Tariff reforms and financial viability of the sector need more detailed analysis.
• Transparency in power flows is an important area for improvement.

Mining and Private Sector

• The mining sector needs more reforms to attract investment, especially at the exploration stage.
• The private sector is seen as a growth driver, with initiatives like the PPP Law and automated business registration.
• However, reforms are incomplete, and the MTDP should adopt a more systematic and coherent approach.

Social Protection

• The MTDP highlights weak targeting and inadequate benefits in social protection.
• Recommendations include:
  • Prioritizing poverty-targeted social benefits over categorical ones.
  • Shifting to a flat rate benefit model.
  • Reforming social service financing to be case- and result-based.

Education and Health

• The education sector has seen improvements in strategy, but needs:
  • Better sector capacity and data systems.
  • A sustainable textbook financing system.
  • A revised budget allocation to match actual needs.
• The health sector is also emphasized, with a shift from communicable to non-communicable diseases. However, market mechanisms need careful design to avoid adverse selection and increased public burden.

Monitoring and Evaluation

• The MTDP calls for regular monitoring and evaluation, but these mechanisms are not yet fully developed.
• Annual progress reports should be prepared through consultation with stakeholders and civil society.
• The president's office monitoring department is leading the effort, but institutional capacity and donor support are needed for effective implementation.

Risks and Issues for Discussion

The staff recommends the following areas for further elaboration in the annual progress reports:

• Realistic macroeconomic assumptions (especially growth and private investment).
• Analysis of risks from the fragile external environment.
• Spatial and demographic poverty analysis and assessment of policy impacts.
• Clarification of MTDP goals and objectives with timelines and priorities.
• More realistic costing and financing for the MTDP.
• Specific measures to engage civil society in governance.
• Comprehensive analysis of the pension system.
• Effective monitoring and evaluation mechanisms.

Conclusion

The MTDP is an ambitious and comprehensive strategy aimed at reducing poverty and promoting sustainable development. However, it requires more detailed policy measures, realistic assumptions, and inclusive monitoring to ensure successful implementation. The IMF and IDA staff support the strategy's direction but urge for greater transparency, coordination, and risk assessment to enhance its credibility and effectiveness.