20180524-广发证券_香港_-Dim_Sum_Express_4页_427kb

报告摘要

Dim Sum Express Summary

Key Index Performance (May 24, 2018)

Market	1D (%)	1M (%)	YTD (%)	18E EPS (%)	19E EPS (%)	18E P/E	19E P/E
HSI	-1.8	0.1	2.5	44.0	10.4	11.9	10.7
HSCEI	-2.1	-1.3	3.3	26.2	10.4	8.0	7.2
MXCN	-0.9	2.8	4.1	55.8	15.6	13.2	11.4
SHSZ300	-1.3	0.3	-4.4	35.5	15.1	12.9	11.2
SHCOMP	-1.4	1.3	-4.2	40.3	13.7	12.4	10.9
SZCOMP	-1.1	1.7	-3.4	76.1	23.0	20.0	16.3
INDU	0.2	3.6	0.7	39.9	8.8	16.4	15.1
SPX	0.3	3.7	2.2	45.7	10.0	17.2	15.7
CCMP	0.6	6.0	7.6	82.4	15.2	22.4	19.4
UKX	-1.1	4.9	1.3	166.7	5.7	14.2	13.5
NKY	-0.6	1.3	-0.9	62.2	13.4	16.3	14.4

Hong Kong ADRs

HK Ticket Company	Local (HK$)	Daily (%)	ADR (US$)	Daily (%)
700 TENCENT	407.0	-0.25	17.1	-0.70
1398 ICBC	6.6	-1.63	9.4	-2.82
939 CCB	8.1	-1.59	175.2	-4.29
857 PETROCHINA	6.2	-4.50	29.4	0.79
5 HSBC	77.5	-0.39	6.5	-1.66
941 CHINA MOBILE	73.2	-0.27	20.6	-0.70
2318 PING AN	77.8	-0.77	20.0	-0.45
3988 BANK OF CHINA	4.1	-2.13	13.3	-1.78
386 SINOPEC	7.7	-6.10	99.8	-3.99
1299 AIA	70.4	-5.19	36.2	-3.50

A-Share Market: Investment Strategy

Key Policy Focus: 8th National Environmental Conference

Environmental Protection:
- Sectors expected to benefit include water resources, new energy/NEVs, paper making, animal farming, chemical, and industrial environmental production.
- Pollution prevention and treatment were highlighted as key areas.
- Environmental protection is set to become a driver for auto sector growth.
- Ultra-low-emission renovations will be accelerated in the steel sector.
- Light industry may see large-scale stoppages or shutdowns.
- Environmental regulations will lead to supply contraction in the chemical sector.
- Agricultural upgrades will be accelerated due to environmental pressures.

Investment Recommendations

Environmental Protection Sector:
- Expected to see valuation re-rating due to sustained demand, improved business models, and enhanced cash flow and credit support.
- Recommended stocks: Originwater Technology (300070 CH), Zhongjin Environment (300145 CH), Bossco Environmental Protection Technology (300422 CH), Guozhen Environment Protection Technology (300388 CH), and Jinyuan Cement (000546 CH).
Auto Sector:
- Highlighted companies: CNHTC Jinan Truck (000951 CH), Weifu High-Technology (000581 CH), and Weichai Power (000338 CH).
- Preference for companies with stable profitability and valuation discounts, such as Huayu Automotive Systems (600741 CH) and SAIC Motor (600104 CH).
Steel Sector:
- Ultra-low-emission renovations will be accelerated.
- Recommended companies: Baoshan Iron & Steel (600019 CH), Nanjing Iron & Steel (600282 CH), Xinyu Iron & Steel (600782 CH), Fangda Special Steel Technology (600507 CH), Hunan Valin Steel (000932 CH), and SGIS Songshan (000717 CH).
Light Industry:
- Larger paper makers may benefit from economies of scale.
- Recommended stocks: Sun Paper Industry (002078 CH) and Shanying International (600567 CH).
Chemical Sector:
- Dye, agricultural chemical, and phosphorus chemical companies are preferred.
- Recommended stocks: Zhejiang Longsheng (600352 CH) and Yangnong Chemical (600486 CH).
Agriculture Sector:
- Sector upgrade is expected due to increased entry barriers and environmental regulation.
- Recommended stocks: Muyuan Foodstuff (002714 CH), Wens Foodstuff (300498 CH), and Sunner Development (002299 CH).

Risks

Trade friction uncertainties.
Decreasing A-share market risk appetite.
Sector performance falling short of expectations.
Earnings disappointments from listed companies.
Policy implementation and execution may not meet expectations.
Delays in EPC settlement and operating subsidies.
Insufficient capacity utilization.

Rating Definitions

Buy: Expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 15%.
Accumulate: Expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 5% but not more than 15%.
Hold: Expected relative performance ranges between -5% and 5%.
Underperform: Expected to underperform the benchmark by more than 5%.

Sector Ratings

Positive: Expected to outperform the benchmark by more than 10%.
Neutral: Expected relative performance ranges between -10% and 10%.
Cautious: Expected to underperform the benchmark by more than 10%.

Analyst Certification

The views expressed in the report reflect the personal opinions of the analysts.
No part of the analysts' remuneration is directly or indirectly related to the recommendations in the report.

Disclosure of Interests

GF Securities (Hong Kong) and its affiliates do not hold any shares of the securities mentioned.
No investment banking relationships with the companies in the past 12 months.
Analysts and their associates do not serve as officers of the companies and have no financial interests in the securities.

Disclaimer

This report is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer to buy or sell securities.
The information may be subject to change without notice.
GF Securities (Hong Kong) accepts no liability for losses arising from the use of the report.
Recipients should obtain professional advice before making investment decisions.

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