爱立信-2018年Q3全球移动行业报告-2018.12-32页-6mb

Ericsson Mobility Report - November 2018 Summary

Core Content

The Ericsson Mobility Report November 2018 provides an overview of the global mobile ecosystem, focusing on mobile subscriptions, IoT connections, 5G device forecasts, and the growth of mobile data traffic. It highlights the transformative impact of 5G and the evolving role of IoT in the telecommunications landscape.

Main Viewpoints

• 5G Deployment: 5G is set to become a key driver for the mobile broadband business, with projections indicating 40% population coverage and 1.5 billion subscriptions by 2024. It is expected to be the fastest generation ever to be rolled out globally.
• Mobile Subscriptions Growth: In Q3 2018, there were around 7.9 billion mobile subscriptions, with 120 million new subscriptions added. China, India, and Indonesia were the top contributors to subscription growth.
• Mobile Broadband Dominance: Mobile broadband subscriptions reached 5.7 billion in Q3 2018, growing at 15% YoY. By 2024, mobile broadband subscriptions are forecast to reach 8.4 billion, accounting for 95% of all mobile subscriptions.
• LTE Growth: LTE subscriptions reached 3.3 billion in Q3 2018, with continued strong growth expected. By 2024, LTE is projected to account for 60% of all mobile subscriptions, while WCDMA/HSPA will decline to around 17%.
• IoT Connections: Cellular IoT connections are expected to grow to 4.1 billion by 2024, with an annual growth rate of 27%. North East Asia is anticipated to be a major contributor, with 2.7 billion connections.
• VoLTE Expansion: VoLTE subscriptions are expected to reach 6 billion by 2024, accounting for 90% of combined LTE and 5G subscriptions. VoLTE supports enhanced voice quality, reliability, and new use cases like Wi-Fi calling and ViLTE.
• Regional Outlook:
  • India: LTE subscriptions will grow from 30% in 2018 to 81% in 2024. 5G is expected to be available by 2022.
  • Middle East and Africa: Mobile broadband subscriptions will grow from 40% in 2018 to 90% in 2024. 5G is expected to be available in 2019 for some countries.
  • South East Asia and Oceania: LTE subscriptions will grow from 26% in 2018 to 63% in 2024. 5G is expected to be available in 2021.
  • Central and Eastern Europe: LTE will dominate by 2024, with 5G expected to reach 10% of total subscriptions.
  • Latin America: LTE will account for 75% of subscriptions by 2024, with 5G expected in 2019.
  • North America: LTE penetration is at 87%, and 5G is expected to reach 55% of subscriptions by 2024.
  • Western Europe: LTE dominates with 57% of subscriptions, and 5G is expected to reach 30% by 2024.

Key Information

• Mobile Subscriptions:
  • Q3 2018: 7.9 billion subscriptions, with 120 million new subscriptions added.
  • By 2024: 8.9 billion mobile subscriptions, 8.4 billion mobile broadband subscriptions, and 6.2 billion unique mobile subscribers.
• Smartphones:
  • 360 million smartphones were sold in Q3 2018, representing 86% of all mobile phones sold.
  • By 2024, smartphone subscriptions are expected to reach 7.2 billion, with 99% supporting 3G and 4G.
• IoT Connections:
  • Expected to reach 4.1 billion by 2024, with 27% CAGR.
  • The majority of IoT devices are still using 2G, 3G, and LTE technologies.
• Mobile Data Traffic:
  • In Q3 2018, global mobile data traffic grew by 79% YoY, driven by increased video consumption and smartphone usage.
  • By 2024, total mobile data traffic is expected to be five times higher than in 2018, reaching 136 exabytes (EB) per month.
  • 5G networks are projected to carry 25% of global mobile data traffic by 2024.
• Voice Over LTE (VoLTE):
  • By the end of 2018, VoLTE subscriptions were close to 1.4 billion.
  • Expected to reach 6 billion by 2024, supporting advanced voice services and new use cases like Wi-Fi calling and video calling.

Summary of Projections

• 5G Subscriptions: 1.5 billion by 2024, accounting for 17% of all mobile subscriptions.
• IoT Connections: 4.1 billion by 2024, with a 27% CAGR.
• Mobile Broadband Penetration: 95% by 2024.
• LTE Subscriptions: 5.4 billion by 2024, making up over 60% of all mobile subscriptions.
• VoLTE Subscriptions: 6 billion by 2024, representing 90% of combined LTE and 5G subscriptions.
• Global Mobile Data Traffic: 136 EB per month by 2024, growing at a CAGR of 31%.
• Smartphone Traffic: 95% of total mobile data traffic by 2024, with strong growth in North East Asia and North America.

Conclusion

The report underscores the significant role of 5G in transforming the mobile ecosystem, alongside the rapid adoption of mobile broadband and the expansion of IoT applications. It also highlights the shift from traditional voice services to IP-based solutions and the increasing importance of video and data-intensive applications in driving mobile traffic growth.