20131202-巴黎银行证券-EM_Flows_Tracker_12页_1mb

报告摘要

FX & IR EM STRATEGY Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of foreign portfolio flows, bond ownership, and foreign exchange (FX) reserve changes in Emerging Markets (EM) across Asia, CEEMEA, and Latin America (LATAM) as of late 2013. It highlights the performance of different asset classes, the impact of political and economic conditions, and the behavior of foreign investors in these regions. The report is a marketing communication and not independent investment research.

Main Points

EM Bond Flows

EPFR reported outflows from EM bond funds for the ninth consecutive week, totaling about USD 1bn, with local currency bond funds accounting for USD 0.9bn.
Hard currency bond funds saw inflows that almost compensated for the outflows from local currency funds.
In Asia, equity flows improved in November, but the overall volume remains small. Thailand experienced moderate outflows due to political unrest.
India was the only country in Asia with equity inflows in November.
In CEEMEA, non-resident outflows occurred in Turkey, Hungary, and South Africa. South Africa had over ZAR 31bn in combined equity and local debt outflows, with ZAR 15bn from local bonds.
Poland recorded the largest monthly net outflow from POLGBs in over 12 months in October.
Brazil had slightly positive foreign flows in October, but a sharp drop to BRL 0.2bn from recent highs indicates a shift in sentiment towards Brazilian assets.
Mexico had a MXN 18.69bn inflow in November, but a large outflow of MXN 26.95bn on November 14th coincided with the maturity of a 1yr Cetes (notional MXN 50.5bn).

Equity Flows

Equity inflows in Asia showed a mixed trend, with KRW, TWD, and IDR seeing inflows, while THB and ZAR had outflows.
India had net equity inflows in November, while Thailand experienced equity outflows.
Korea saw a decline in equity inflows from USD 222mn in September to USD 235mn outflows in October.
Philippines and Indonesia had mixed equity and debt flows, with Philippines showing a sharp decline in equity inflows.

Bond Ownership

Asia: Foreign ownership of KTB reached 46.3% in October, while MGS had 46.3% of outstanding bonds. THB and ZAR had high foreign ownership levels.
CEEMEA: South Africa had ZAR 15bn in foreign bond ownership, while Turkey and Hungary had foreign bond holdings of USD 57.9bn and USD 22.2bn, respectively.
LATAM: Brazil had BRL 10.5bn in foreign bond holdings, Mexico had MXN 128.2bn, and Colombia had COP 6.0bn.

FX Reserves

Asia: FX reserves showed monthly changes with Korea having the highest foreign bond holdings.
CEEMEA: FX reserves had mixed monthly changes, with South Africa experiencing significant outflows.
LATAM: Mexico and Brazil showed steady inflows in FX reserves, while Colombia had mixed results.

Key Information

Political unrest in Thailand led to equity and debt outflows.
India was the only Asia country with equity inflows in November.
Brazil had positive foreign flows, but sentiment shifted in October.
Mexico had a large inflow in November, but a sharp outflow on November 14th.
South Africa had combined equity and debt outflows of ZAR 31bn.
Korea showed declining equity inflows and increasing foreign bond ownership.
Foreign ownership in Asia, CEEMEA, and LATAM varied significantly across countries, with Korea and South Africa having the highest levels.
FX reserves showed mixed trends, with some countries experiencing inflows and others outflows.

Summary of Key Metrics

Bond Flows (USDmn)

Asia: Nov (201), Oct (1011), TWD (Nov -184), THB (Nov -1513), PHP (Nov -115), IDR (Nov -386), ZAR (Nov -1696)
CEEMEA: Nov (ZAR -222.5), Oct (ZAR -864), South Africa (Nov -31bn), Turkey (Nov -291), Hungary (Nov -258)
LATAM: Brazil (Oct -1842), Mexico (Nov 18.69bn), Colombia (Nov 641)

FX Reserves

Asia: Korea (USD 83.8bn), India (USD 25.1bn), Thailand (USD 24.5bn), Indonesia (USD 28.1bn)
CEEMEA: South Africa (USD 40.9bn), Turkey (USD 57.9bn), Hungary (USD 22.2bn)
LATAM: Brazil (BRL 10.5bn), Mexico (MXN 128.2bn), Colombia (COP 6.0bn)

Region-specific Analysis

Asia

Net equity inflows in November were positive, but bond flows were negative.
India had the only positive equity inflows in the region.
Thailand had equity outflows, and Korea had mixed flows.

CEEMEA

South Africa had significant outflows in November, but the ZAR remained resilient due to seasonal factors.
Turkey and Hungary saw foreign bond outflows in November.

LATAM

Brazil had slightly positive flows, but sentiment shifted in October.
Mexico had inflows in November, but a large outflow on November 14th.
Colombia had positive flows in October, but mixed results in November.

Contacts

Bartosz Pawlowski – Global Head of EM Strategy, London
Dina Ahmad – FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London
Stanislav Petrov – FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, London
Tatiana Tchembarova – CEEMEA Credit Strategist, London
Erkin Isik – FX & IR CEEMEA Strategist, Istanbul
Mirza Baig – Head of FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore
Rohit K Garg – FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore
Jasmine Poh – FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore
Yii Hui Wong – FX & IR Asia Strategy, Singapore
Thiago Alday – FX & IR Latam Strategist, Sao Paulo
James Z Hao – FX & IR Latam Strategist, New York

Important Disclosures

This document is non-independent research and marketing communication.
It is not subject to independence requirements.
BNP Paribas may have conflicts of interest and may trade on the information provided.
No liability is accepted for any losses arising from the use of this document.
BNP Paribas is incorporated in France and registered in England and Wales.
This report is intended for professional clients only and not for retail clients.