20140120-巴黎银行证券-EM_Flows_Tracker_12页_1mb

FX & IR EM STRATEGY Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of foreign portfolio flows and foreign exchange (FX) reserve changes in Emerging Markets (EM) during the week ending January 15, 2014. It includes data on equity and bond flows across different regions and highlights the performance of various countries in terms of foreign investment activity.

Main Points

Equity Flows

• Overall Trends: EPFR data shows continued net outflows from EM equity and bond funds, with a notable increase in bond outflows.
• Regional Highlights:
  • Asia: Portfolio flows into Asia improved, particularly in Taiwan, Indonesia, and India. India saw strong bond inflows of USD 1.5bn, while Thailand had moderate outflows.
  • CEEMEA: Net outflows from non-residents in CEEMEA local debt persisted, but Hungary and South Africa showed positive inflows in the past week.
  • LATAM: Mexico had the largest inflow in 2013 at MXN 85.96bn, increasing foreign holdings to 41.59%. Colombia saw a marginal increase in TES holdings and a rise in foreign investor participation in the fixed rate market.

Bond Flows

• Asia:
  • India had strong bond inflows of USD 1.5bn.
  • Thailand saw inflows in government bonds but outflows in BOT bonds.
  • Korea experienced net outflows in bonds, primarily due to redemptions.
• CEEMEA:
  • Turkey had significant outflows from local bonds (over USD 1.1bn), mainly from offshore branches of Turkish banks.
  • Foreign non-bank financials increased bond holdings by TRY 0.5bn, while foreign banks maintained stable positions.
  • Hungary and South Africa recorded positive bond inflows in the past week.
• LATAM:
  • Mexico had the largest inflow in 2013, with short-term Cetes attracting more inflows than Mbonos.
  • Colombia saw a marginal increase in nominal TES holdings and a rise in foreign investor participation in the fixed rate market.

FX Reserve Accumulation

• Asia:
  • FX reserves showed varied trends, with Korea and Thailand being key markets.
• CEEMEA:
  • Turkey had significant outflows, but foreign non-bank financials increased holdings.
  • Hungary and South Africa showed positive inflows.
• LATAM:
  • Mexico and Colombia saw notable inflows, with Mexico's foreign holdings reaching 41.59%.

Key Information

• Data Sources: Information is sourced from EPFR, BNP Paribas, local stock exchanges, and central banks.
• Methodology Notes:
  • Daily equity flows are reported by local stock exchanges on Bloomberg.
  • Daily debt flows may not fully reflect actual cross-border capital flows due to reporting limitations.
  • Some data is converted to monthly pace for better analysis.
• Disclosure: The document is a marketing communication and non-independent research, not subject to legal independence requirements. It is intended for professional clients and not for retail clients.

Appendix Highlights

• Contact Information:
  • Strategy Contacts are listed with their roles and contact details.
  • Production and Distribution contact is provided as Diana Seifert.
• Important Disclosures:
  • The report does not guarantee accuracy or completeness of the information.
  • It is not an offer to buy or sell securities and should not be relied upon as authoritative.
  • BNP Paribas may have conflicts of interest due to interactions with sales and trading.
  • The report is non-objective research and subject to legal restrictions in various countries.

Summary Table of Key Data

Conclusion

The report outlines the trends in foreign portfolio flows and FX reserves in Emerging Markets, emphasizing the shift in investment patterns and regional differences. It highlights that while some countries like India, Indonesia, and Mexico saw inflows, others such as Turkey and Korea experienced outflows. The data is sourced from multiple institutions and includes methodological notes to clarify the limitations and accuracy of the figures. The document serves as a marketing communication and is not independent investment research.