20140714-法国巴黎银行-EM_Flows_Tracker_12页_1mb

报告摘要

FX & IR EM STRATEGY Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of foreign exchange (FX) and investment-grade (IR) emerging market (EM) flows as of 14 July 2014. It includes analysis of portfolio inflows, bond flows, equity flows, and FX reserve accumulation across various regions, including Asia, CEEMEA, and Latin America (LATAM). The report also contains charts and data tables that support the findings and is accompanied by disclaimer and legal information.

Main Points

Asia

Portfolio inflows moderated slightly last week, with slower bond inflows in India, Korea, and Thailand.
Equity inflows into Indonesia surged by USD 816mn following election quick-count results.
Thailand saw a slight increase in equity inflows, but the pace of inflows slowed elsewhere.
Korea reported the largest rise in FX reserves in June, around USD 4.68bn, but the pace slowed compared to May, suggesting smaller but continued BOK intervention.
Asia bond flows (as of June) show mixed trends, with India, Korea, and Thailand seeing positive net inflows, while Indonesia, Malaysia, and the Philippines had negative or stagnant flows.
Foreign ownership in Asian bonds is moderate, with MYR having the highest percentage of foreign ownership in outstanding bonds.

CEEMEA

Turkey saw net foreign inflows of USD 0.7bn in the week to July 4th, driven by increased repos and 2021-2022 bonds.
Equity holdings by foreign investors in Turkey remained unchanged.
CEEMEA bond inflows show mixed trends, with TRY and ZAR experiencing positive inflows, while HUF and PLN had negative or stable flows.
Foreign ownership in CEEMEA bonds is significant, particularly in TRY, with TRY having the highest percentage of foreign ownership in outstanding bonds.
South Africa and Hungary also reported bond inflows, though with lower volumes compared to Turkey.

Latin America

Latin America continued a 15-week streak of positive inflows, totaling USD 4.5bn since Q2 2014.
Mexico saw bond inflows of USD 59mn last week, with cumulative inflows of USD 1.9bn since March.
Brazil experienced outflows for three consecutive weeks, totaling USD 213mn.
Equity flows in LATAM were mixed, with Brazil showing a positive inflow of USD 96mn after two weeks of outflows, while Mexico continued to see outflows of USD 34mn.
Colombia reported foreign inflows of COP 2213bn in June, close to levels seen in March, and the foreign participation rate increased to 10.4%. YtD total foreign inflows reached COP 8108bn.

Key Information

Asia equity flows were mixed, with Indonesia as a notable exception due to election-related inflows.
Korea had the highest FX reserve increase in June, but the pace of increase was slower than May, indicating reduced central bank intervention.
Bond flows in LATAM showed positive trends for Mexico, but negative flows for Brazil.
Foreign ownership in Asian bonds varied significantly by currency, with MYR and IDR showing high levels of foreign ownership.
CEEMEA had positive inflows in Turkey, with TRY showing high foreign ownership.
Colombia reported stable foreign inflows, with a foreign participation rate of 10.4%.
Data sources and caveats are provided for each region, highlighting the limitations and methodological considerations of the data.

Summary of Charts and Tables

Chart 1 compares EM equity vs. EM bonds flows.
Chart 3 shows Indonesia equity inflows after election quick-counts.
Chart 8 and Chart 10 provide bond inflow trends for Asia and CEEMEA, respectively.
Chart 12 shows LATAM bond inflows, highlighting Mexico and Colombia as key contributors.
Chart 25 provides a snapshot of Asia net debt and equity flows.
Chart 38 and Chart 39 focus on Turkey bond holdings and flows.
Chart 44 and Chart 46 provide bond holdings for Brazil and Mexico, respectively.
Chart 48 and Chart 49 show Colombia bond holdings and flows.
Chart 27 and Chart 28 provide Korea debt ownership and inflow data.

Disclaimer and Legal Information

This document is non-independent marketing communication and not subject to legal independence requirements.
It may be subject to conflicts of interest due to interactions with sales and trading.
Data sources are public and reliable, but not guaranteed for accuracy or completeness.
Investment decisions should be based on judgement, not solely on this report.
BNP Paribas may have financial interests in the issuers mentioned and may participate in investment banking services.
The report is intended for professional clients in the European Economic Area and is not for retail clients.
Distribution and reproduction are restricted without prior written consent.

Summary of Contacts

Asia Strategy Contacts: Mirza Baig, Rohit K Garg, Jasmine Poh, Yii Hui Wong, Jennifer Kusuma, Ray Heung, Susan Chie, Rahul Gupta, Tony H Chen.
CEEMEA Strategy Contacts: Piotr Chwieczak, Dina Ahmad, Erkin Isik.
LATAM Strategy Contacts: Gabriel Gersztein, Thiago Alday, James Z Hao, Damien Botton.

Conclusion

The report highlights mixed trends in EM flows, with Asia and CEEMEA experiencing some inflows and LATAM showing positive inflows in Mexico but outflows in Brazil. Foreign ownership in bonds varies across regions, with Korea and Turkey showing higher percentages. The report serves as marketing communication and not independent investment research, with caveats and disclaimers provided for data accuracy, conflicts of interest, and regulatory compliance.