20131028-巴黎银行证券-EM_Flows_Tracker_12页_1mb

FX & IR EM STRATEGY Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of the flows into Emerging Markets (EM) equities and bonds, focusing on the period around 28 October 2013. It highlights trends in foreign investment, analyzes regional performance, and includes data on foreign ownership and FX reserves. The report is a marketing communication and not independent investment research.

Main Points

Equity Flows

• Asia: Inflows are predominantly in equities in North Asia (Taiwan and Korea) and bonds in South East Asia (Indonesia, Philippines, Thailand).
• Indonesia: Recorded its largest weekly inflow this year, with foreign ownership of government bonds rising to 31.4% as of 24 October.
• Philippines: Showed a resurgence in bond inflows, with a weekly purchase of USD 640 million.
• Korea: Maintained strong equity inflows, with foreign ownership of local debt at 17.2% as of September.
• Monthly Trends: The report includes monthly net equity flows for several EM countries, with notable inflows in Korea, India, and Thailand in September.

Bond Flows

• Asia: Bond inflows were strong in September, with Indonesia, Thailand, and Malaysia showing significant net inflows.
• CEEMEA: HGB (Hungarian Government Bonds) continued to attract inflows, while TRY (Turkish Lira) and ZAR (South African Rand) experienced subdued or reversed flows due to market volatility and holidays.
• LATAM: Brazil saw a strong inflow of BRL 19 billion in September, increasing foreign ownership of local debt by one percentage point to 17.2%. Mexico had a notable weekly inflow of MXN 26.82 billion, leading to the highest foreign ownership of local debt at 41.50%.

FX Reserve Accumulation

• Asia: FX reserves showed a positive trend, with notable increases in Korea, India, and Indonesia.
• CEEMEA: South Africa and Hungary had positive FX reserve flows, though Turkey faced outflows due to holidays.
• LATAM: Brazil and Mexico saw significant inflows, with Brazil's FX reserves showing a positive trend.

Key Information

Regional Analysis

• Asia: Inflows are split between equities in North Asia and bonds in South East Asia. Indonesia had the largest weekly bond inflow, while Korea had strong equity inflows.
• CEEMEA: HGB remains resilient, attracting non-resident investors, while TRY and ZAR flows were affected by market volatility and holidays.
• LATAM: Brazil and Mexico showed strong bond inflows, with Brazil's inflow aided by the elimination of IOF tax and delayed Fed tapering.

Notes on Data

• Korea: Daily data on foreign equity flows may overstate net inflows as it refers to "net purchases" and not "net investment."
• India: FX flows are influenced by SEBI auctions, which may not align perfectly with actual cross-border flows.
• Thailand: Data covers only government bonds and not BOT bills or corporate bonds.
• Indonesia: Covers all government bonds but not SBI bills or corporate bonds.
• Philippines: Data includes government bonds and equity inflows but lacks a breakdown between the two.

Contacts

• EM Strategy: Bartosz Pawlowski (Global Head of EM Strategy), Dina Ahmad, Stanislav Petrov, Tatiana Tchembarova.
• FX & IR Asia Strategy: Mirza Baig, Rohit K Garg, Jasmine Poh, Yii Hui Wong.
• FX & IR Latam Strategy: Thiago Alday, James Z Hao.

Appendices

• The report includes important disclosures and legal limitations regarding its use and distribution.
• It is non-independent research and may be subject to conflicts of interest.
• The report is intended for professional clients and is not suitable for retail clients in certain regions.
• It is distributed in compliance with local regulations in the UK, France, Germany, Japan, Hong Kong, and Australia.

Conclusion

The report highlights a shift in foreign investment trends, with a focus on EM bond and equity flows. Asia and LATAM showed positive inflows, while CEEMEA had mixed results. The data underscores the importance of market-specific factors, such as policy changes and economic indicators, in influencing foreign capital flows.